(TJV NEWS) The Guardian reports that humanitarian chef José Andrés is warning that the escalating conflict involving Iran, combined with growing instability around the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger a cascading global food crisis driven by a sudden shock to fertilizer supplies and agricultural production costs.

According to The Guardian, Andrés argues that the war’s impact on one of the world’s most important energy and shipping corridors is already feeding into global fertilizer markets, with potentially severe consequences for food security in vulnerable regions.

The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow maritime chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows — is also a critical artery for the global fertilizer supply chain. The Gulf region, particularly Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, is a major exporter of nitrogen-based fertilizers such as ammonia and urea, both of which depend heavily on natural gas as a feedstock.

As The Guardian notes, any disruption to shipping through the strait immediately affects not just oil prices but also natural gas benchmarks, which in turn feed directly into fertilizer production costs worldwide. When gas prices rise or shipping routes become unstable, ammonia and urea production becomes significantly more expensive, tightening global supply and driving up agricultural input costs.

Andrés told The Guardian that this chain reaction risks creating what he described as a “silent famine mechanism,” where food becomes less available not because of immediate crop failure, but because farmers globally are priced out of essential fertilizers needed to maintain yields. Even modest reductions in fertilizer application can translate into significant drops in wheat, corn, and rice output over successive harvest cycles.

The report highlights that shipping disruptions in and around the Strait of Hormuz — including heightened military activity, vessel seizures, and increased insurance premiums for commercial shipping — are compounding the pressure. Tankers and chemical carriers transporting ammonia and fertilizer inputs face higher costs, longer transit times, and in some cases rerouting away from the Gulf entirely.

The Guardian also notes that Iran itself is a major producer and exporter of urea-based fertilizers, meaning the conflict has added another layer of uncertainty to an already strained global supply chain. Any restriction on Iranian exports, whether through sanctions or maritime disruption, further tightens available supply on international markets.

Andrés, who founded World Central Kitchen, warned that these interconnected pressures could unfold into a delayed but widespread humanitarian crisis, particularly in import-dependent regions across Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia. He emphasized that while the immediate focus is on military escalation, the secondary economic effects on food systems may prove even more destabilizing over time.

The Guardian frames his warning as part of a broader concern among aid groups and agricultural economists that the Hormuz corridor is no longer just an energy chokepoint, but a critical vulnerability in the global food production system — where instability can rapidly translate into rising hunger and long-term food insecurity.

As Andrés put it in remarks highlighted by The Guardian, the world is “not just risking war in the Gulf — it is risking the fertilizer chain that feeds the planet.”