By: Fern Sidman

In a stunning reversal of global sentiment and betting odds, President Donald Trump has vaulted to the top of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize betting markets, with bookmakers cutting his odds in half following major diplomatic progress toward a Gaza ceasefire.

According to a report that appeared on Thursday at Newsmax, Trump’s odds tightened dramatically—from 6/1 just a week ago to 2/1 as of Thursday—making him the undisputed favorite to win the world’s most coveted peace accolade. His nearest rival, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, stands at 5/2, followed by Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, at 4/1.

For a man who once joked that the Nobel Committee would “never give me the Peace Prize, even if I deserved it,” Trump’s ascent marks one of the most remarkable political comebacks in recent memory. As the Newsmax report emphasized, the shifting odds reflect not only the diplomatic success of his Gaza peace initiative, but also his resurgence as a global statesman—a role many in the international community had long dismissed.

Bookmakers across Europe have seen a surge in wagers favoring Trump after the Israel-Hamas ceasefire framework—brokered under his direct leadership—appeared to take hold. The deal, which promises the release of all remaining hostages and the phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, has been hailed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as “nothing short of historic.”

“President Trump has made possible what many said was impossible,” Netanyahu said in remarks reported by Newsmax, “a peace process that gives hope to millions while ensuring Israel’s security.”

As the Newsmax report detailed, the Nobel betting markets have long served as a reflection of both geopolitics and public perception. Trump’s previous nominations in 2018 and 2020, submitted by Norwegian and Swedish lawmakers, were widely dismissed as symbolic. But this time, bookmakers and analysts alike say his candidacy is built on “substantive diplomatic achievement.”

“This isn’t rhetoric—it’s results,” one London-based political oddsmaker told Newsmax. “The odds tell the story: Trump is now viewed as a peacemaker capable of doing what global elites couldn’t.”

Trump’s sudden rise has shaken a crowded field of more than 250 nominees. According to Oddspedia data cited by Newsmax, the top 10 betting favorites now include:

Donald Trump — 33.33%

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms — 28.57%

Yulia Navalnaya — 20.00%

UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency) — 14.29%

Doctors Without Borders — 6.67%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy — 5.88%

William Lai — 3.85%

Greta Thunberg — 3.85%

International Criminal Court (ICC) — 3.85%

Pope Leo XIV — 3.85%

The Newsmax report noted that the range of contenders calls attention to the ideological complexity of this year’s award. Trump’s leading competition includes humanitarian organizations and political figures who have often been openly critical of him—among them, the ICC, Pope Leo, and UNRWA, which has faced mounting international controversy over alleged ties to terrorism.

Perhaps the most eyebrow-raising entry on the Nobel shortlist is the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)—an organization mired in scandal after investigations revealed that several of its employees were allegedly complicit in Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terror attacks.

As Newsmax reported, U.S. officials have demanded accountability. Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned the agency’s continued operations, writing on X:

“After inquiring in February about @UNRWA members’ involvement in the horrific October 7th attack, it’s assuring to see steps taken toward accountability. Yet, more must be done. @UNRWA should be dissolved & replaced by an organization that doesn’t enable evil attacks against Israel.”

The inclusion of UNRWA among the leading contenders has drawn outrage across the political spectrum. For Trump supporters, the contrast is particularly stark: while the president is being recognized for fostering peace and freeing hostages, a controversial U.N. agency with alleged terrorist ties is still being considered for the same prize.

“It says everything about how politicized the Nobel process has become,” one Israeli commentator told Newsmax. “If UNRWA wins instead of Trump, it would be a grotesque distortion of the very meaning of peace.”

Trump’s pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize has long been a point of fascination—and frustration—for both his supporters and detractors. During his first term, he facilitated the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations, a feat that many observers viewed as a legitimate foundation for Nobel recognition. Yet, as the Newsmax report noted, the Nobel Committee remained unmoved.

“If I were named Obama, I would have had the Nobel Prize in 10 seconds,” Trump quipped at a rally, recalling how his predecessor received the 2009 prize “for doing nothing.”

This time, however, the mood appears to have shifted. Even some of Trump’s most skeptical international counterparts have publicly acknowledged his diplomatic impact.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, once a sharp critic of Trump’s trade policies, offered a remarkable endorsement during a recent Oval Office meeting. “For the first time in decades, even centuries, this prospect of peace that you’ve made possible—Canada stands four square behind and we will do everything we can to support those efforts,” Carney said, as quoted in the Newsmax report.

It was an extraordinary reversal for a leader who had once sparred with Trump over tariffs, trade agreements, and immigration.

The Newsmax report emphasized that Trump’s diplomatic strategy—though unconventional—has delivered tangible breakthroughs. His direct engagement with Israel, Egypt, and Qatar to facilitate hostage negotiations and broker a Gaza ceasefire has been praised even by longtime critics.

In an analysis published Wednesday, Newsmax noted that Trump’s peace plan, dubbed “Operation Promise of Freedom”, was the culmination of intense back-channel negotiations involving multiple nations. The outcome, if fully implemented, would not only end the war in Gaza but also lay groundwork for broader Arab-Israeli normalization.

“It has been hard to take some of his proclamations seriously—but this is different,” a senior European diplomat told the Financial Times, as quoted in the Newsmax report. “Gaza would be a big deal.”

Indeed, even The Times of Israel—which has historically maintained a neutral editorial stance on Trump—acknowledged the magnitude of the breakthrough, describing the deal as “the first real moment of hope in two years of war.”

Yet despite the momentum, Trump’s path to the Nobel remains uncertain. As the Newsmax report pointed out, the Nobel Committee has a long history of bypassing controversial figures, particularly those associated with populist politics or conservative movements.

Critics within Europe and the United Nations have cautioned that awarding Trump the Nobel could “politicize” the institution further, turning a prize once associated with moral leadership into a referendum on nationalism.

Still, many political observers argue that the Nobel Peace Prize’s credibility would suffer more from ignoring Trump’s achievements than from recognizing them.

“If the Nobel is truly about ending wars, saving lives, and forging peace through action, not ideology, then Trump fits the criteria better than anyone in recent memory,” a Newsmax editorial declared Thursday.

Trump’s peace initiative has not only reshaped Middle East diplomacy but also altered global perceptions of U.S. leadership. The report at Newsmax noted that after years of perceived retreat under previous administrations, Washington has reemerged as a decisive broker of stability.

Even Trump’s adversaries—Russia, Iran, and elements within the European Union—have been forced to reckon with his influence. “It’s not just that he commands attention,” one Middle Eastern analyst told Newsmax. “It’s that people believe he can actually make deals stick.”

At home, Trump’s newfound frontrunner status for the Nobel has energized his political base. Supporters have flooded social media with hashtags like #TrumpForPeace and #NobelForTrump, while conservative commentators on Newsmax TV hailed the betting shift as “a moral vindication for a man the global elite mocked for years.”

The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced Friday at 5 a.m. ET in Oslo, Norway, during a formal ceremony that is already being described as one of the most closely watched in decades.

For Trump, who has built his legacy around the image of a dealmaker, the stakes could not be higher. As the Newsmax report observed, winning the Nobel would not only cement his diplomatic achievements but also mark a symbolic restoration of American leadership on the world stage.

And yet, the president himself has downplayed the odds, maintaining his characteristic blend of bravado and fatalism.

“They will never give me a Nobel Peace Prize,” Trump told supporters in February. “It’s too bad—I deserve it.”

Now, as the betting markets suggest otherwise, the world waits to see whether the Nobel Committee will break with precedent and reward results over politics.

For millions watching from Washington to Jerusalem—and for the families of hostages soon to come home—the prospect of Trump as a Nobel laureate no longer seems implausible.

As Newsmax concluded in its Thursday analysis: “Love him or loathe him, Donald Trump has once again reshaped the world’s expectations. If peace truly matters more than politics, his name will be etched alongside history’s peacemakers—not for what he said, but for what he actually achieved.”