New Poll Shows Trump Gaining Ground Over Harris in Key Swing States as Election Nears

Edited by: Fern Sidman  

As the 2024 presidential election approaches its final days, former President Donald Trump is reportedly leading Vice President Kamala Harris in all key swing states, according to a recent poll from AtlasIntel. The New York Post reported that Trump’s lead over Harris is narrow yet widening, a trend that could prove pivotal as the election draws near. The poll surveyed likely American voters across seven battleground states, revealing that the Republican nominee holds an advantage in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

AtlasIntel’s data shows that Trump’s lead in four of these states falls outside the poll’s two-point margin of error, signaling a potentially significant shift in these critical regions.

Trump’s strongest performance, according to the report in The New York Post, is in Arizona, where he holds a 6.5-point lead over Harris, with 52.3% of likely voters favoring him compared to 45.8% for the Vice President. Arizona, which has historically been a tightly contested state, is now leaning more solidly toward Trump, based on this polling.

In Nevada, Trump maintains a 5.2-point lead, with 51.2% of the projected vote to Harris’ 46%. This margin further highlights Trump’s competitive positioning in states that were crucial in previous election cycles.

North Carolina also shows a slight but potentially significant edge for Trump, with him polling at 50.5% compared to Harris’ 47.1%. Both candidates campaigned in North Carolina this past Saturday, drawing attention to the state’s importance in the upcoming election.

In Georgia, Trump leads with 50.1% against Harris’ 47.6%, solidifying his position in a state that flipped blue in 2020 for the first time in nearly three decades.

In the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the race remains incredibly close, though Trump maintains a narrow advantage. According to The New York Post report, Michigan shows Trump at 49.7% to Harris’ 48.2%, Pennsylvania reflects a similar gap with Trump at 49.6% and Harris at 47.8%, and Wisconsin represents the tightest margin, with Trump at 49.7% to Harris’ 48.6%. Each of these states is crucial to securing the Electoral College and could be the deciding factor in the overall election outcome.

Notably, these three states were decisive in 2020, and a shift back to the Republican column in even one or two of them could significantly alter the electoral landscape. AtlasIntel’s polling shows that Trump’s lead in these states falls just within the margin of error, emphasizing how close these races truly are.

The AtlasIntel poll, as The New York Post report noted, has Trump leading nationally by 1.8 points, with 49% of likely voters supporting him and 47.2% backing Harris. This slight but expanding lead  shines a proverbial spotlight on Trump’s potential to reclaim the White House, despite the narrow margins.

AtlasIntel’s poll accuracy is noteworthy. In 2020, AtlasIntel was one of the most accurate polling agencies, correctly predicting every swing state’s outcome within the margin of error. This track record lends credibility to the current data, suggesting that the trends observed may reflect a realistic view of voter sentiment as Election Day approaches.

Swing states have long been the battlegrounds where U.S. presidential elections are won or lost, and 2024 appears no different. The New York Post report explains that each of these states holds significant electoral votes, which are essential for either candidate to reach the 270 required to win the presidency. Trump’s current leads in these areas reflect his campaign’s ability to appeal to critical voter bases, particularly in states such as Arizona and Nevada, where demographics and shifting political landscapes play a significant role.

For Harris, narrowing the gap in states such as Arizona and North Carolina is vital to maintaining a path to victory. Her campaign has focused on mobilizing younger voters, women, and minority groups, which could prove decisive, especially in urban areas within these swing states.

As both campaigns ramp up efforts in these final days, the AtlasIntel poll offers insights into the critical swing states that could decide the election. With Trump leading by varying margins in all seven battleground states and outside the margin of error in four, his campaign has reason for cautious optimism. For Harris, closing these gaps is essential, particularly in the Rust Belt states where voter turnout and demographic shifts could still sway results.

Given AtlasIntel’s previous polling accuracy in 2020, The New York Post reported that the current data may accurately reflect the electorate’s leanings. However, with the election yet to be held, both campaigns recognize that anything can happen in the final stretch. The results in these swing states, as always, will likely determine the ultimate outcome in one of the most closely watched presidential races in recent history.