Iranian nuclear progress goes much further than uranium

(JNS) As Tehran continues to make alarming progress on its nuclear program, the United States appears not to have made a firm decision on how to respond. Israel, which has already demonstrated an ability to send its air force to strike in Iran, is bracing for possible military action.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Professor Jacob Nagel, former acting national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ex-head of Israel’s National Security Council, who is today a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told JNS on Thursday that the situation regarding the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program is alarming for two reasons.

First, he said, are “the Iranian ambitions and behavior,” and second is the unwillingness of the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear watchdog and the Europeans to confront Iran over its nuclear progress, while the United States, he assessed, has yet to make a final decision on the matter.

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“I very much hope Israel will succeed in clarifying the situation as it truly is,” said Nagel. “The problem is that some in Israel have also not yet internalized the situation, because they have gotten used to it over 20 years.”

Iran has significantly increased its stockpile of near weapons grade uranium, enough to produce six nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA report prepared for next week’s meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors and seen by Reuters.

The agency expressed grave concern over Tehran’s failure to resolve outstanding issues.

“The significantly increased production and accumulation of high-enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon state to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern,” the IAEA stated, as reported by Reuters.

In parallel, Iranian regime media quoted an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general who issued a direct threat, apparently of a conventional missile attack against Israel. “Operation True Promise 3 will be carried out at the right time, with precision, and on a scale sufficient to destroy Israel and raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground,” Maj. Gen. Ebrahim Jabbari said.

Nagel assessed, “In my view, one can see the problem in the IAEA report coming out this week, which will unfortunately likely focus again on enrichment and the number of kilograms of 60% enriched material. The Iranian stockpile is growing, even though in my opinion, this is the least important issue. But this is what everyone has been dealing with for 20 years, and it is difficult for them to understand that something has changed.”

The ‘weapons group’

Nagel recently headed a government-appointed commission on the Israeli security budget and proposals for future priorities.

The Nagel Commission on Evaluating the Security Budget and Force Building Requests Proposals from the Public, to give it its full title, outlined a priority list for dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat, which begins with the “weapons group”—the Iranian scientists and engineers tasked with weaponizing a nuclear device—weakening the regime, the deep underground site currently being built, where the enriched material is stored, and of course, the material itself.

Only in the last place did the commission list the well-known uranium enrichment sites at Qom and Fordow in Iran, as well as the centrifuges and all their components.

Asked whether Iran has activated its weapons group, Nagel said, “Without a doubt, there is a group, not officially called the weapon group, that is working to close technological gaps so that when the leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] gives the order to break forward, much time will be saved. For now, they are still working on things that have a tenuous civilian explanation, to avoid creating a smoking gun.”

Nagel referenced multiple assessments that estimate Iran could produce a crude nuclear device within six months, a timeframe primarily based on the work of nuclear expert David Albright and others.

“There are estimates that it will take six months to produce a crude device, led by Albright, and maybe even less. Not everyone agrees with them, but that is the range, assuming success in development. For a weapon system that can be installed on a missile, the estimate is still 18 to 24 months, although the Iranians are working on closing technological gaps,” said Nagel.

The so-called weapons group has been working in the background, without the official designation as a weapon group, for several years, he said. “It is part of the IRGC strategy, without official approval from the leader, but according to many, he knows exactly what is happening and turns a blind eye.”

According to Nagel, Iran’s ultimate goal has not changed: “It remains the destruction of Israel through conventional means under a nuclear umbrella—not to use it, but to deter.”

He noted that the collapse of Iran’s proxy-based “Ring of Fire” strategy, following the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas and Israel’s subsequent military operations to destroy most of the capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah.

“The collapse of the ‘Ring of Fire’ concept, based on proxies, following 7/10, is very troubling to the Iranians, and I assume they are now looking for ways to overcome this collapse, alongside the effort to rearm the proxies around Israel.

“The most important and central point is that we must not once again, ahead of the IAEA board meeting and afterward, focus on enrichment and the amount of enriched kilograms that Iran has accumulated. That almost doesn’t matter, beyond highlighting the violations,” Nagel said.

“I belong to the camp that believes that even if Natanz and Qom are attacked and destroyed, but it is done without dealing with the weapon system, the already enriched material, and the deep underground site being built—[or without] simultaneously building capabilities to support activities that will destabilize the regime—such an attack could do more harm than good,” he warned.

“Because then, the Iranians will take the enriched material with a few hundred advanced centrifuges, go underground, and that’s it. When they finish the weapon system, they will have a bomb.”

A reliable military option

Speaking to Politico in Brussels, in an interview published on Feb. 26, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar warned that Iran has already enriched enough uranium for “a couple of bombs” and is “playing with ways” to move forward on weaponization.

“So we don’t have much time,” he said. While Israel still prefers a diplomatic solution, he acknowledged that “the chances of such an approach being successful are not huge” and failure to stop Iran’s nuclear program would be a “catastrophe for the security of Israel.”

Sa’ar added, “I think that in order to stop a nuclear Iranian program before it will be weaponized, a reliable military option should be on the table.”

Meanwhile, a report published on Feb. 19 by Andrea Stricker, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, discussed the revelation that a secret team of Iranian scientists has been working to shorten the country’s path to a nuclear weapon.

The report, based on intelligence collected during United States President Joe Biden’s final months in office and relayed to the incoming Trump administration, stated that “Iran likely has the capability and know-how to produce nuclear weapons but lacks confidence in the functionality of certain components.

“To deter a breakout, Washington and Jerusalem must review and, where necessary, enhance joint intelligence operations and capabilities to penetrate and sabotage Iran’s weaponization program and uncover weaponization facilities,” said the report.

“America should also mobilize the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to conduct in-depth inspections of illicit Iranian sites and activities. Concurrently, the United States and Israel must prepare and showcase effective military options and signal to the regime the credible threat of their use.”