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Edited by: TJVNews.com
In the latest demonstration of New York’s famously tough political landscape, Gov. Kathy Hochul finds herself facing an unexpected dip in popularity. According to a Siena College poll, Hochul’s favorability among likely Empire State voters has sunk to a startling 34%, which places her behind former President Donald Trump, who holds a 39% favorability rating, as was detailed in a report in The New York Post. For a Democratic governor leading a state known for its deep blue tendencies, these numbers are nothing short of alarming. The poll, conducted last week, has sent shockwaves through political circles as New Yorkers express their discontent.
The data reveals that 54% of respondents view Hochul unfavorably, marking the highest unfavorability rating of her tenure, resulting in a net favorability of -20%. In comparison, Trump, who remains a polarizing figure nationally, manages to perform slightly better with a net favorability rating of -18%. The Post report indicated that these findings underscore the unique political dynamics at play in New York, where voters are quick to turn their backs on incumbents who fail to meet their expectations. As Steve Greenberg, a spokesperson for Siena, emphasized, “To repeat, Kathy Hochul has a lower net favorability rating in New York than Donald Trump.”
The Post was among the outlets highlighting how these numbers reflect Hochul’s ongoing struggles. Despite attempts to turn the tide, including a high-profile appearance at the Democratic National Convention and efforts to scrap controversial congestion pricing, her approval ratings have continued to decline. New Yorkers, it seems, are not easily won over, even when their governor makes moves that might otherwise be popular with her base.
One particularly revealing aspect of the poll is the level of indecision regarding Hochul. A striking 12% of those polled admitted that they didn’t know or didn’t have an opinion on her performance. This contrasts sharply with the numbers for Trump, where only 4% of respondents remained undecided. While this suggests that Hochul has room to reshape public opinion, it also underscores a concerning level of disengagement or indifference towards her leadership.
The Post report pointed out that Hochul’s numbers have been in a steady decline, even as she tries to bolster her party ahead of this year’s elections. This is particularly critical given that Democratic candidates across the state are hoping to ride the wave of President Biden’s administration’s accomplishments into their own electoral victories. However, Hochul’s declining popularity doesn’t appear to be affecting her fellow Democrats, at least for now.
According to the same Siena College survey, Vice President Kamala Harris and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) continue to enjoy significant leads over their Republican challengers in New York. Their continued success in the polls suggests that while Hochul may be struggling to connect with voters, the broader Democratic platform remains resilient. The Post report noted that these results are a relief for Democrats on the ballot, as they haven’t been dragged down by the governor’s polling woes.
According to the survey, 55% of respondents said they would vote for Harris in a head-to-head matchup against Trump, while 42% backed the former president. These results come in the wake of the only scheduled debate between the two candidates, held in early September.
One of the key takeaways from the poll, as highlighted by The Post report is the areas where New Yorkers tend to trust Harris more than Trump. Greenberg, pointed out that “New Yorkers trust Harris more than Trump on abortion, democracy, and the economy, and trust them equally on immigration.” These policy areas have proven central to both campaigns, and the data indicates Harris has resonated more effectively with voters on these critical issues.
However, despite Harris’s overall lead in the state, the suburbs remain a contested battleground. The Post report noted that Trump still holds a narrow edge in the suburban counties of Putnam, Westchester, Rockland, Nassau, and Suffolk, with 50% of voters in these regions favoring him compared to 48% for Harris. These counties, home to significant numbers of swing voters, will play a pivotal role in determining the final outcome in New York. For now, though, the former president’s slight lead in these areas signals the potential for a close contest outside the state’s major urban centers.
Another intriguing aspect of the poll is how the recent debate between Trump and Harris has influenced voter sentiment. While a plurality of voters, 43%, reported that the debate did not change their voting preferences, the data shows that it still had an impact on a notable portion of the electorate. The Post report said that Greenberg observed that by a margin of 37% to 17%, voters said they were more likely to support Harris following the debate. This swing in favor of the vice president could prove decisive, particularly as Election Day draws nearer and undecided voters finalize their decisions.
In addition to the presidential race, the poll also shed light on New York’s Senate contest, where incumbent Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is running for her third term. According to the Siena survey, Gillibrand holds a commanding lead over her Republican challenger, Mike Sapraicone. Gillibrand is supported by 54% of likely voters, compared to just 31% for Sapraicone, a former NYPD detective and entrepreneur. The Post report highlighted the uphill battle facing Sapraicone, noting that a massive 84% of respondents said they didn’t know enough about him or had no opinion. This lack of name recognition appears to be a significant obstacle for the Republican candidate, especially as Gillibrand remains a well-known figure in New York politics.
As the poll indicates, Harris’s advantage in New York stems from her strong support on key issues, particularly abortion and democracy. The Post report calls attention to the importance of these topics, which have become central themes in both the presidential and Senate races. However, as the numbers also reveal, Trump remains competitive in critical suburban areas, and Sapraicone faces the formidable task of building a profile that can challenge Gillibrand’s entrenched incumbency.
With the election just weeks away, the campaigns are intensifying their efforts to sway undecided voters. The latest Siena poll offers a glimpse into the current political landscape in New York, a state that is often seen as a Democratic stronghold but still holds pockets of conservative support. The New York Post notes that while Harris’s lead appears solid, the results in the suburbs show that the race is far from over, and both parties will be working hard to consolidate their bases in the final stretch before Election Day.
As to Hochul, her current predicament raises larger questions about the challenges she faces moving forward. Governing New York—a state that is both politically diverse and home to a highly engaged electorate—requires navigating complex voter concerns, from economic inequality to public safety. Hochul’s declining favorability indicates that a significant portion of the electorate feels she is not addressing these issues effectively enough.
The Post has also raised the point that Hochul’s political future could be in jeopardy if her unfavorable ratings continue to rise. While she has time to recover and reconnect with her constituents, the pressure is mounting. The upcoming electoral cycle may present a pivotal moment for the governor, and she will need to find new ways to re-energize her base and prove her leadership in a state that is famously difficult to please.
