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Edited by: TJVNews.com
Amidst escalating regional tensions and mounting threats emanating from Tehran, a forthcoming Iranian attack on Israel is expected to be “measured” and confined to military targets, according to veteran Israeli war correspondent Ron Ben Yishai, as was reported on Tuesday by World Israel News. With over 50 years of experience in war journalism, Ben Yishai provides a nuanced analysis suggesting that the assault, anticipated to last several days, will likely focus on military bases, installations, and other assets, deliberately avoiding civilian infrastructure to prevent severe Israeli retaliation.
Israeli intelligence assessments, as reported by Ben Yishai on Ynet, indicate that Iran’s strategy will be governed by a desire to avoid provoking a devastating response from Israel. According to the information provided in the WIN report, the primary objective for Tehran appears to be the infliction of damage on Israel’s military capabilities without crossing the threshold that would trigger a broader conflict involving civilian casualties. Should Iranian strikes result in Israeli civilian deaths, Israel’s response would likely target critical Iranian infrastructure, including nuclear facilities, oil refineries, and water supplies, potentially crippling Iran’s already struggling economy.
This calculated approach by Iran is aimed at achieving tactical military objectives while preventing a full-scale war that could have catastrophic consequences for both nations, as was noted in the WIN report. By restricting their offensive to military targets, Iranian leaders hope to convey their military prowess and retaliate against perceived threats without inviting overwhelming Israeli counterstrikes.
The forthcoming attack is informed by the lessons Iran has gleaned from previous encounters with Israeli air defenses. In April 2024, Iran launched an unprecedented aerial barrage, during which Israeli defense systems intercepted approximately 99% of the incoming projectiles. However, the WIN report indicated that a few Emad missiles successfully penetrated these defenses, striking the Nevatim Air Force base in the Negev desert. This partial success is likely to encourage Iran to increase the deployment of Emad missiles in the anticipated barrage, leveraging their perceived effectiveness against Israeli defenses.
Ben Yishai’s analysis suggests that Iran’s decision to escalate its missile campaign is driven by a combination of tactical considerations and a desire to test the limits of Israeli air defense capabilities. The use of Emad missiles, which have demonstrated a degree of effectiveness, indicates Iran’s intent to inflict measurable damage on Israeli military assets while avoiding a broader and more destructive conflict.
In the days leading up to the anticipated attack, Iranian diplomats have proactively communicated their intentions to strike Israel, seeking to manage the international response and mitigate potential diplomatic fallout. Observed in the WIN report was that caretaker Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri’s outreach to Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó underscores Tehran’s effort to inform and possibly justify its actions on the global stage. Szijjártó’s subsequent communication with Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, and Katz’s confirmation of the impending attack on social media platform X, highlights the gravity of the situation and the immediate international implications.
The analysis by Ron Ben Yishai presents a detailed and sobering picture of the likely dynamics of the forthcoming Iranian attack on Israel. By focusing on military targets and avoiding civilian casualties, Iran aims to achieve its strategic objectives without provoking a full-scale Israeli retaliation that could devastate its economy and infrastructure. The lessons learned from previous conflicts and the proactive diplomatic maneuvers call attention to the calculated nature of Iran’s approach.
On Tuesday, the Jewish News Syndicate reported that the serene atmosphere of Western Galilee was shattered when Hezbollah launched attack drones, resulting in nineteen Israelis wounded. The assault, which involved at least two drones shines a spotlight on the escalating tensions between Israel and the Iranian-backed terror group that is based in Lebanon.
Initial reports indicate that one man in his 30s was critically injured, while a 30-year-old woman sustained moderate injuries. The remaining victims suffered light wounds. The drones managed to infiltrate Israeli airspace, with one crashing in the Arab town of Mazra’a, located between Acre and Nahariya, after crossing the border from Lebanon.
This drone attack by Hezbollah marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, with both immediate and long-term implications for the region’s security dynamics. The JNS report indicated that the use of drones by Hezbollah represents a tactical shift, leveraging advanced technology to bypass traditional defenses and inflict damage within Israeli territory.
Medical teams from Magen David Adom (MDA) swiftly responded to the emergency, treating victims at three different locations around Nahariya. Those injured were transported to the Galilee Medical Center for further treatment. JNS reported that MDA paramedics described the scene to Israel’s Channel 13 News, recounting the severe head injury of an unconscious man found in his car and a conscious woman with shrapnel injuries nearby.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that some casualties might have been caused by an Israeli interceptor missile that failed to hit its intended target. This tragic mishap illustrates the complexities and inherent risks of missile defense operations in populated areas. The military is currently investigating the incident to understand the precise sequence of events and prevent future occurrences.
Also on Tuesday, Lebanon’s health ministry reported that four individuals were killed in an alleged Israeli airstrike in the town of Maifadoun in Southern Lebanon. JNS reported that sources from AFP indicated that all the deceased were Hezbollah operatives. This incident is part of a broader series of escalations involving Israeli and Hezbollah forces in the region.
The IDF confirmed that on Monday evening, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) executed a targeted strike against senior Hezbollah terrorist Ali Jamal Aldin Jawad in the area of Ebba, also located in Southern Lebanon, as per the information contained in the JNS report. This targeted killing is part of Israel’s broader strategy to neutralize key figures within Hezbollah’s command structure.
The violence continued overnight on Sunday when an IDF officer and soldier were moderately wounded by a Hezbollah suicide drone that successfully targeted a location near Kibbutz Ayelet HaShahar in the Hula Valley, the JNS report said. This incident shows the increasing sophistication and audacity of Hezbollah’s attacks, utilizing advanced drone technology to penetrate Israeli defenses.
Since Hezbollah declared its support for Gaza-based Hamas and entered the conflict on October 8, northern Israel has been subjected to near-daily attacks. These assaults have resulted in the deaths of over 20 individuals and caused significant damage to infrastructure and properties, as detailed in the JNS report. The relentless violence has also led to the internal displacement of tens of thousands of Israeli civilians, who are forced to seek safety away from their homes.
Hezbollah’s intensified assault is partly fueled by a desire for retribution following the recent targeted killing of senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr by Israeli forces in Beirut. JNS reported that Shukr had been implicated in several high-profile terror attacks, including a rocket strike that killed 12 children in Majdal Shams, a Druze village in the Golan Heights, on July 27, and the 1983 bombing in Beirut that claimed the lives of 241 U.S. service members.
Israel’s targeted strikes against senior Hezbollah figures are aimed at disrupting the group’s command and control capabilities, thereby reducing its operational effectiveness. However, these actions also risk provoking further retaliation and escalating the cycle of violence.
The human cost of this conflict is significant. The frequent attacks on northern Israel have not only resulted in loss of life but also caused widespread fear and disruption, the JNS report explained. The displacement of tens of thousands of civilians adds to the humanitarian burden, as families are uprooted from their homes and forced to live in uncertain conditions.
In Lebanon, the impact of the conflict is equally severe. The death of Hezbollah operatives in targeted strikes adds to the group’s resolve to continue its terrorist activities, while the civilian population bears the brunt of the ensuing violence and instability.
On Tuesday, Israeli Air Force jets conducted a low-altitude flyover over Beirut, moments before Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was scheduled to address a memorial ceremony for Fuad Shukr, his recently slain deputy. JNS reported that the dramatic flyover, described by Lebanese eyewitnesses as producing “one of the largest sonic booms heard by residents in years,” was a stark display of Israeli military power in the skies above the Lebanese capital.
Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on July 30 in Beirut. According to the information contained in the JNS report, Shukr was a key figure in Hezbollah’s military operations, having orchestrated several high-profile attacks. He was responsible for a rocket barrage that killed 12 children in a Druze village in the Israeli Golan Heights and played a significant role in the 1983 bombing that killed over 300 U.S. and French service members in Beirut. Shukr’s death marked a significant blow to Hezbollah, prompting a strong response from the group’s leadership.
During the memorial ceremony for Shukr, delivered via video link, Nasrallah confirmed that Iran, Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Houthis would respond jointly to the killings of Shukr and Ismail Haniyeh, a top Hamas leader assassinated in Tehran on July 31 by a bomb allegedly planted by Israeli operatives. Nasrallah’s speech was filled with defiance and a promise of retaliation. He accused the enemy of being in a “state of loss and anxiety” and suggested that this waiting period was “part of the punishment.”
Nasrallah emphasized that Iran felt compelled to respond to the assassination of Haniyeh but clarified that Iran was not required to engage in an indefinite conflict. The JNS report said that he asserted that Hezbollah had requested Tehran’s “moral, political, and military support” and promised that a response from Hezbollah and its allies in the “Axis of Resistance” was imminent, regardless of the consequences.
As Nasrallah delivered his speech, air-raid sirens blared across northern Israeli communities, signaling renewed rocket and drone attacks from Lebanon. Local reports indicated that a rocket launched by Hezbollah sparked a fire near the town of Beit Hillel in the Galilee panhandle. In response, Israeli Air Force jets conducted strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Kfarkela, Southern Lebanon, marking a significant escalation in the aerial and ground engagements between the two forces.
Yahya Sinwar, 61, the senior Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip and the architect of the October 7 massacre, has been appointed to lead Hamas’s political bureau, replacing the recently assassinated Ismail Haniyeh. As was indicated in the JNS report, the announcement was made late Tuesday night, coinciding with renewed rocket attacks from Gaza on Israeli towns.
The JNS report indicated that the official statement from Hamas, as cited by Arabic media, confirmed Sinwar’s new role: “Hamas announces the selection of leader Yahya Sinwar as the head of the political bureau of the movement.” This leadership transition follows the death of Haniyeh in a bombing in Tehran on July 31, an act attributed to Israeli forces. Haniyeh’s assassination left a significant vacuum in Hamas’s leadership, prompting speculation about potential successors.
Haniyeh had been considered a key impediment to a possible hostages-for-terrorists ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, making his removal strategically significant for both sides.
Sinwar is widely recognized for orchestrating the brutal assault on October 7, where Hamas terrorists killed approximately 1,200 people, injured thousands, and committed atrocities including rape, torture, and mutilation. They also took more than 250 hostages back to Gaza.
On October 14, IDF Spokesperson Lt. Col. Richard Hecht explicitly linked Sinwar to the atrocities, likening him to Osama bin Laden. “Yahya Sinwar is the face of evil. He is the mastermind behind this, like [Osama] bin Laden was. He built his career on murdering Palestinians when he understood they were collaborators. That’s how he became known as the butcher of Khan Yunis [in southern Gaza],” Hecht said, according to the JNS report.
Sinwar’s criminal history is extensive. Convicted of multiple murders, he was sentenced to five life sentences by an Israeli court. However, he was released in October 2011 as part of the Gilad Shalit prisoner exchange, after serving 22 years. His release saw him rise in power within Hamas, eventually becoming its Gaza leader in 2017 after defeating Haniyeh in a vote.
Currently, Sinwar is believed to be hiding in Gaza’s tunnel network, using Israeli hostages as human shields.
Sinwar’s hardline stance is not without internal contention. JNS reported that according to U.S. military intelligence, there have been calls within Hamas for disarmament, as the prolonged conflict with the IDF has led to severe humanitarian crises in Gaza. Despite these pressures, Sinwar has maintained a firm position, pushing for uncompromising demands in hostage negotiations.
In February, amid efforts for a truce, Sinwar urged Hamas officials to avoid concessions and continue pushing unrealistic demands, betting that high civilian casualties would increase global pressure on Israel. JNS reported that this strategy was outlined in messages reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, revealing Sinwar’s “cold disregard for human life” and his belief that Israel has more to lose from the ongoing war than Hamas.
As Sinwar’s appointment was being announced, air-raid sirens were activated in Israeli towns near Gaza, with the IDF confirming rocket launches from the Strip. Although no casualties were reported, the incident calls attention to the persistent threat and the volatile security situation.
