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Israel’s Post-Ceasefire Ambiguity: Uncertain Steps Forward After Hostage Deal
Edited by: Fern Sidman
Senior Israeli political and military officials are maintaining an intentional silence regarding the long-term implications of the recently concluded agreement with Hamas. A Ynet News report that appeared on Wednesday said that while the official stance remains ambiguous, military commanders involved in the mission understand that further action will be necessary, even as the immediate terms of the deal are implemented.
Former hostages Romi Gonen, Emily Damari, and Doron Steinbrecher reunite with their families at Tel Hashomer Hospital in central Israel after 471 days in Hamas captivity. #HostagesRelease #RomiGonen #EmilyDamari #DoronSteinbrecher @LatamSheba #TelHaShomer #HamasisISIS… pic.twitter.com/sGbGFHVyjX
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The deal, brokered with the aid of the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, comprises a two-stage process. According to the information provided in the Ynet News report, Phase One involves the release of 33 hostages over a six-week period, under a tenuous ceasefire. Following this, a negotiation window will allow for discussions before transitioning into Phase Two, which hinges on a temporary cessation of hostilities. However, these negotiations are fraught with the risk of collapse, leaving dozens of hostages still in captivity.
Defense officials, as noted in the Ynet News report, believe that Hamas—or potentially other terrorist factions in Gaza—may exploit any perceived setbacks as justification to resume hostilities. The ongoing fragility of the ceasefire highlights the precarious nature of the agreement and the potential for renewed violence.
Pro Hamas demonstration near Ofer prison in the West Bank. #HamasisISIS #OferPrison
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Once the agreement is fully implemented, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw from key areas, including the Netzarim Corridor, the Philadelphi Corridor near Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, and the northern bypass corridor encompassing Gaza City, Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahia, as was indicated in the Ynet News report. These territories, currently controlled by the IDF’s 162nd Division, have been strategically significant throughout the conflict.
Ynet News also reported that Israeli forces are expected to maintain a presence in a buffer zone extending one to two kilometers within Gaza. Over the past year, this zone has been extensively reshaped by IDF operations, including the leveling of thousands of structures and agricultural fields. This transformation has created a starkly altered landscape visible from Israeli communities such as Kibbutz Nahal Oz and Moshav Netiv HaAsara. Areas such as Shijaiyah and Beit Lahia now feature significantly fewer Palestinian buildings than before.
One of the most critical and ongoing challenges for the IDF remains the detection and destruction of Hamas’ tunnel network. As the Ynet News report highlighted, these tunnels, particularly in southern Gaza, pose a significant security threat. Engineering units from the IDF’s 143rd Division are engaged in daily operations to uncover and dismantle these underground passages, a mission that will persist long after the agreement is fully executed. The subterranean barrier along the border remains a key focal point for these efforts.
The Kibbutz where Emily and Doron were kidnapped from are celebrating their release. #emilygonen #DoronSteinbrecher #KibbutzAza #October7thMassacre #HamasisISIS .#Gaza Follow the TJNEWS channel on
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The deal is underpinned by international assurances, as noted by Ynet News. Both the outgoing and incoming U.S. administrations have provided guarantees to Israel, alongside commitments from Egypt and Qatar. However, foreign reports—left unchallenged by Israeli authorities—suggest that the agreement effectively signals an end to the war. While combat operations in Gaza ceased over six months ago, the deal formalizes this cessation with significant geopolitical backing.
Hamas declares victory in its war on Israel, even as the first three hostages are released in this new hostage deal. You can see them fully armed and masked as they joyously jump on Red Cross vehicles. #HamasisISIS #HostageRelease #terrorism @RedCross
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Despite the agreement, military officials acknowledge that the conflict is far from over. Ynet News reported that commanders anticipate scenarios where hostilities may reignite, driven by factions within Gaza. Even with the planned buffer zone, the potential for escalations remains high, particularly if the ceasefire fails or negotiations break down.
Ynet News also highlighted the significance of figures such as Ezzedine Haddad, commander of the northern brigade, and Mohammed Shabaneh, commander of the Rafah brigade, who remain at large and poised to spearhead Hamas’ rebuilding efforts.
A senior IDF brigade commander told Ynet News, “You can’t dismantle a terror army that’s been built over 15 to 20 years in a single year.” This draws attention to the complexity of the task ahead, especially as Hamas recruits and arms hundreds of new members, including teenagers, to replenish its ranks.
Fifteen months into the conflict, Hamas is at a historic military low, largely due to relentless IDF operations. As was disclosed in the Ynet News report, Israeli forces have significantly degraded Hamas’ command-and-control structures, destroyed large-scale weapons production facilities, and eliminated numerous senior leaders. Despite these setbacks, Hamas continues to stage guerrilla attacks in areas such as Jabaliya and Beit Hanoun, sporadically launch drones, and maintain propaganda efforts.
Geographically, Hamas retains a presence in central Gaza, with brigades in Nuseirat and al-Bureij largely intact due to the presence of hostages. Additionally, the organization has partially restored its military capabilities in Khan Younis, Gaza’s southernmost city, and shows signs of recovery in Gaza City, where approximately 100,000 residents live amidst partially destroyed neighborhoods.
The ongoing conflict has taken a heavy toll on Israeli forces. The Ynet News report said that over 400 Israeli soldiers have lost their lives, and thousands have been wounded during the campaign. The offensive in Jabaliya and Beit Hanoun alone has lasted four months, claiming 60 Israeli soldiers’ lives and wounding hundreds more.
Brigades such as Givati, Nahal, Kfir, and the 401 Armored have achieved notable gains in clearing these areas, but the operational cost remains high. Clearing Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, required the Nahal Brigade to demolish hundreds of buildings and navigate a labyrinth of tunnels, reflecting the immense challenges inherent in the mission.
Military officials project rapid response times to new threats, estimating a few hours to reach critical locations such as the western Philadelphi Route or the heart of the Sabra neighborhood. However, as the Ynet News report noted, the IDF’s capacity to sustain such operations is under scrutiny. With no plans to mobilize the 30,000 soldiers who participated in last year’s peak operations, questions arise about the IDF’s ability to maintain the intensity of its campaign.
While Israel has made substantial gains against Hamas, the Ynet News report emphasized that the path to fully neutralizing the organization remains long and arduous. The combination of guerrilla tactics, a deeply entrenched tunnel network, and a resilient leadership structure ensures that Hamas will continue to pose a significant challenge.
For Israeli military leadership, the task is not only about achieving tactical victories but also about managing the broader strategic and human costs of a campaign that promises to span years. As the IDF braces for this extended mission, the balance between immediate security needs and long-term stability will define the next chapter of this protracted conflict.
