The Path Forward for Israel and the Palestinians Hinges on Trump Being Elected

By: Rich Berdan

Politicians of many stripes cavalierly throw around the “Two-State” narrative to somehow demonstrate they have the wherewithal to solve centuries of division in what is a miniscule period of time in their political careers. They know very little and understand less. The overused statement is desperately pre-mature, emboldens Hamas as legitimate diplomatic and military caretakers, and only creates false hope where none exists unless Donald Trump is elected President.

From 2003 to 2005 as Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip and rocket attacks increased following their departure; it leads one to believe nothing Israel can do is good enough to quell aggression from state sponsored terrorists. In 2005 Israel removed all Jews from the Gaza Strip and four major settlements in the West Bank to quell Arab opposition. This abstraction of Jews by the Israeli government from the territories was officially titled “Israel’s Unilateral Disengagement Plan.”

Essentially, Gaza has been operating a self-ruling autonomy under the vicious grip of the Hamas terrorists utilizing humanitarian aid to bolster their war footing against Israel rather than offering the people a prosperous and peaceful existence. How has this prelude to a two-state solution worked out over nearly two decades. The answer: indoctrinating children that Jews are animals, poverty, tunnels and rockets, the horrific slaughter, torture, and hostages taken on October 7. Hamas refuses to recognize Israel’s existence and promises of future attacks.

Iran is the head of ‘3H Axis’ (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) and a spattering of terrorist positions splintered throughout Iraq and Syria. Iran’s strategy, for good reason, does not seek direct military confrontation the US and Israel, but rather chooses to ship devastating weaponry to these semi-autonomous terrorist organizations to do their bidding. Tehran alleged plausible deniability to any direct orders to carry out deadly strikes throughout the Middle East insulates them from direct consequences and retaliation.

Iran’s primary foreign policy objective to wipe Israel off the planet cannot be achieved directly, and the long leashes on their proxies are the next best thing to hem in Israel from all sides and diplomatically isolate the Jewish state at the UN, in the media, and on university campuses. It is a well choreographed effort to further dimmish American influence currently on the decline under the Biden Administration and every effort to prevent additional recognition of Israel by Arab countries.

Following the numerous Israeli concessions for peace, the 3H Axis have no intension to recognize Israel’s right to peacefully exist and the anti-Semitic demonstrations in West show no let up in retiring  ‘The River to Sea’ extermination of Jews. They will not stop arming, fighting, and killing; and will continue to perpetuate this self-defeating two-state Palestinian strategy.

The 2024 election for president of the United States may very well have the greatest impact on the direction in the Middle East and whether Israel has a partner in Washington and the will to significantly diminish Iran’s influence in the region. Both presumptive frontrunners for president for the Democrats and Republicans have clear track records of failures and accomplishments in the Middle East.

Biden reversed course on Trump’s major achievements to isolate Iran and garnish respect from Arab countries opposing Iran. He now finds himself rudderless with minimal support in the Middle East. Biden restored Obama’s sanction waivers on Iran that would restrain the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The rogue nation has exceeded the enriching cap on the heels of Biden’s ‘tail-between-his-legs’ trip to beg for oil from Saudi Arabia, the counter-balance ally to Iran that he labeled a pariah. Iran announced that they are now capable of making a nuclear bomb. To be blunt, Biden’s relieve in sanctions has allowed the Iran to send a stream of oil tankers to China that infused the regime with cash to fund their state-sponsored terrorism hubs in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen; and to provide Russia with military technology to fight America in Ukraine.

History will look back and tell us that Biden’s miscalculation in providing Iran with relief was the key factor in their nuclear program progressing to weapons grade and the financial means to provide the 3H Axis with weaponry to the attack on Israel. Biden’s action has thrown the world into a tailspin.

Biden’s head was in the sand in the failed retreat of the American military out of Afghanistan and today he is finding it ever more uncomfortable in a shrinking and unforgiving Middle East sandbox he created for himself. Can it get any worse in conveying weakness? Yes, it can. An Iranian-made drone strike on a US military base resulted in the death of three American soldiers and injured countless more. To a mystified enemy, Biden, and his reclusive Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, failed to immediately respond; yet irrationally broadcasted to the world that America would retaliate at a time of their choosing. This gave Iranians embed with the terrorists plenty lead time to pack up the shop and scoot to safety. Biden has lost much of the political capital gained by Trump in the Middle East, and he is now clamoring to regain influence. When Biden claimed America is back, its enemies rejoiced.

Under President Trump, the Abraham Accords Declaration between four Arab countries and Israel recognized the importance of strengthening peace in the Middle East based on mutual understanding and coexistence. It was well known that Saudi Arabia was next.  Then came the October slaughter of Jewish families by the Iranian-back Hamas terrorists in Gaza in an effort to scuttle peace with Israel.

It was clear in the early weeks of the Trump administration that it was no longer political business as usual. Trump’s first foreign trip as president was to Saudi Arabia to firm up a partnership in the Middle East.   The approach would not and could not be the same course as past endeavors to failed peace. Rather, a hybrid all-inclusive regional methodology by hawking a concise and aggressive slant where the affected countries reach a negotiated pact with some benefits, rather than an imposing resolution with fewer gains for those countries that remain as holdouts.

The Middle East players quickly discovered the Trump era brings forth innovative processes that are far different from the antagonistic and politically inept team that Obama fielded. Gone were the days where the UN bullies proposing disproportionate numbers of resolutions against the only democracy in the Middle East or where photo-op handshakes at Camp David resulted in numerous Israeli concessions for peace and the Palestinians unwillingness to recognize the right of the Jewish State to exist.

The distinction between Trump and past promises by presidents was his decision to move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Trump took a tough stand against Iran with severe economic sanctions that had the regime floundering towards capitulation on their nuclear ambitions. He then cut off aid to the Palestinians for continuing to perpetuate instability and their unwillingness to recognize the Jewish State’s right to exist. These decisions by Trump placed America in a position of strength to negotiate peace.

We quickly witnessed the fruits of Trump’s policies when he did what no other president did before him. Not since the historic peace agreement between Egypt and Israel in 1979, had any other Arab country in next four decades recognized the State of Israel. In 2020, the United States, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords to chart a new course in history to normalized diplomatic relations with Israel. Later that year, two other Arab nations, Sudan, and Morocco, followed suit and joined the Abraham Accords. Trump’s leadership was worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize.

A central outcome of the Abraham Accords between the signatory countries has seen the blossoming of bilateral initiatives within the private sectors and civil society. This had set the stage for geopolitical and economic benefits spilling over in the region and establishing a foundation for peace that other countries can tap into. Importantly, it singled a collaborative bulwark against a threatening Iran regime bent on destabilizing the region. The Abraham Accords could inevitably advance a Palestinian solution by opening new channels of communication between the Arab signatories and Israel to give the Palestinian people new opportunities to press forward for similar benefits under the Accords.

Under a Trump presidency in 2025, he will assemble a team to deliver results. Perhaps Trump’s underestimated son-in-law Jared Kushner will once again be deputized to finish off what they started under the Abraham Accords.

First, it is doomed to fail if the focus is on an expedient, near-term Two-State Solution rather than the long-term benefits in viewing the region as a whole. It is essential to identify the various synergetic factors such as the culture, politics, economics, education, security and intelligence, technology, geography, uncertainty, adversarial players, and time in developing the strategic thinking on how the parts interact currently and into the future. A plan must recognize and remove the fomented chaotic bias of hate resulting in the demise of generational Gazan pawns and be prepared articulate a bold alternative course of action where civilians are acknowledged and influenced to grasp onto a credible and sustainable path toward.

Critically, control in the sphere can only be achieved through the eliminating the enemy of progress. The military goal to annihilate Hamas must be broadened beyond the Israeli Defense Forces to include a coalition to maintain order in Gaza and then plot a means to advance to a much better state. The key to a successful strategy is the political skill necessary to coalesce the willing and deny the Iranian coalition of terrorist proxies in the region. Deterrence is required of those who are intending aggressive action and clearly remind them without fear of escalation why it is a bad idea. The militants seeking to cause harm in the region must be alienated from Gazans by demonstrating their coexistence only perpetuates grief and hardship that has offered few rewards of success.

Biden lacks the willingness to look past the fear over a wider escalation of war in the region and the political agility to identify the most relevant pieces of the conflict and improvise when events take an unexpected turn. To be clear, Iran has already escalated by providing the means to disrupt the world’s shipping traffic through the Suez Canal, reigning rockets into northern Israel that has displaced 80,000 Jewish civilians and launched hundreds of strikes against American troops in the region.

Trump has the disposition and reputation to be firmly resolute in establishing the ground rules with friends and foes. Just ask the Taliban leadership when he made a direct call to their leaders on the repercussions if any Americans were killed in Afghanistan prior to bringing the troops home. The message was heard, and no Americans were killed under Trump. What about Trump’s meeting with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un? Prior, the regime was testing ballistic missiles and that all came to a screeching halt until Biden became President. North Korea respected Trump and understood the American nuclear button was bigger. Then came the purposeful response from Trump following Syria’s use of chemical weapons on their own civilians with 59 Tomahawk missiles reigning down on Syrian and Russian military infrastructure. Trump had a red line in the sand while Biden’s constantly shifts. There was no dithering or broadcasting a response.

Trump’s intuition, decisiveness, and fear of his unpredictability ensures a much safer and peaceful world than what is currently taking place in Ukraine, Taiwan, the US southern border, and in the Middle East under Biden. It is not even close as to who is most capable in solving the Israel-Palestinian conflict.