By: Jerome Brookshire

The battle for Gracie Mansion took an unexpected turn this week with the release of a new survey showing that Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist who shocked the political establishment in the June primary, would dominate in a crowded ballot but falter in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

The poll, commissioned by the New York Apartment Association and conducted by Tulchin Research, illustrates both Mamdani’s remarkable momentum within New York City politics and the vulnerabilities of his ideological positioning. According to a report that appeared on Wednesday in The New York Post, the findings have sparked a wave of speculation, skepticism, and outright derision among strategists who question the survey’s methodology and motives.

In the poll’s central projection, Mamdani is positioned as the clear front-runner when facing all four major rivals on the November ballot. He was shown to secure 42% of the vote, far outpacing Cuomo’s 26%, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa’s 17%, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams’ 9%, and independent candidate Jim Walden’s 3%.

That figure would place Mamdani within striking distance of an outright victory, and as The New York Post reported, it demonstrates the depth of his support among progressive voters energized by his candidacy. His base—predominantly younger, left-leaning New Yorkers—has propelled him to the forefront of the political conversation and could cement his place as one of the most formidable insurgent candidates in recent city history.

But the poll also explored a series of head-to-head matchups, where Mamdani’s commanding advantage evaporated. In a hypothetical contest between only Mamdani and Cuomo, the former governor surged to 52%, while Mamdani trailed with 41%.

Ben Tulchin, along with Kelsey Bullis and Corey Teter of Tulchin Research, wrote in an Aug. 26 memo to the Apartment Association that Cuomo’s advantage lay in his ability to consolidate disparate blocs of voters across demographic and ideological lines: “Cuomo is currently leading Mamdani in a head-to-head matchup, with a broader and more diverse coalition and Mamdani’s appeal limited to his progressive base.”

This analysis, highlighted in The New York Post report, suggests that Mamdani’s strength lies in plurality politics rather than majority consensus. He thrives when multiple rivals split the vote but could struggle if confronted by a single, broadly palatable alternative.

The head-to-head numbers also revealed a tighter contest between Mamdani and Adams, with Mamdani leading 45% to 42%. Yet Adams, tarnished by corruption scandals and weakened by low approval ratings, is unlikely to pose as grave a threat as Cuomo in a two-man race.

Despite the eye-catching figures, political insiders immediately cast doubt on the poll’s validity. The New York Post reported that Democratic strategist Ken Frydman dismissed the survey outright: “Looks like a fantasy poll commissioned by Andrew Cuomo. If the election were held today, Cuomo would not beat Mamdani in a one-on-one race.”

Sam Raskin of Slingshot Strategies echoed that skepticism, telling reporters: “This poll strains credulity. These are people who don’t want Mamdani. They are trying to create a scenario that doesn’t exist. They’re better off trying to accept reality.”

Critics pointed to several potential flaws. For one, nearly two-thirds of respondents in the Tulchin survey—63%—were over the age of 50, while just 37% were under 50. Mamdani’s base has been disproportionately youthful, with much of his support coming from voters under 40 who turned out in greater-than-expected numbers in the June primary. The overrepresentation of older voters in the Apartment Association poll may have skewed results in Cuomo’s favor.

Additionally, The New York Post report highlighted that polls during the primary season consistently overstated Cuomo’s strength while underestimating Mamdani’s capacity to mobilize progressive turnout. For Mamdani’s allies, the new survey reflects less an accurate snapshot of the electorate than the anxieties of political and financial elites wary of his socialist program.

For all the focus on head-to-head scenarios, the reality remains that the November ballot is crowded. Neither Adams nor Sliwa has indicated any willingness to step aside. Sliwa, the Republican nominee and founder of the Guardian Angels, continues to poll strongly in third place at 17% and has insisted he will remain in the race until the end. His presence, analysts note, could siphon moderate and conservative votes that might otherwise coalesce around Cuomo.

Adams, despite his embattled standing, has also chosen to run as an independent after opting out of the Democratic primary amid mounting investigations. While his support registers at only 9%, his presence on the ballot further complicates the possibility of a two-man showdown between Mamdani and Cuomo.

Independent candidate Jim Walden polls at 3%, according to Tulchin’s findings, but even such marginal figures can matter in a fragmented field.

The Tulchin poll sampled 1,000 likely voters between August 7 and 14 via phone and online surveys, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. Party affiliation among respondents skewed heavily Democratic—74%, compared to 12% Republican, 11% independent, and 3% other—reflecting the city’s broader partisan landscape.

As The New York Post report noted, Mamdani’s dominance in a five-candidate race owes much to this partisan tilt. In New York City, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than six to one, the socialist nominee’s ability to consolidate left-leaning Democrats could be sufficient to carry the election. But his critics argue that this base may not translate into a governing mandate in a city that remains more ideologically diverse than the Democratic primary electorate.

The poll’s sponsorship has raised eyebrows as well. Conducted for the New York Apartment Association, the survey was framed around housing issues and the mayoral race. The association, which supported Cuomo in the Democratic primary, represents landlords and property owners who have often been at odds with progressive lawmakers like Mamdani over rent control, tenant protections, and housing regulations.

The New York Post report observed that the Apartment Association’s sponsorship may have shaped the framing of the poll, particularly in its emphasis on housing policy and its choice of hypothetical matchups. Mamdani’s socialist platform includes aggressive rent caps, expanded tenant rights, and social housing projects, policies that the association has fiercely opposed.

One of the more intriguing dynamics of the race is the continued presence of Curtis Sliwa. Though polling at 17%, some analysts suggest that his visibility as the Republican nominee could push him higher on Election Day. The New York Post reported that Sliwa’s advantageous ballot position and his unique brand of populist rhetoric may allow him to outpace expectations, siphoning votes from both Cuomo and Adams.

Sliwa’s insistence on remaining in the race makes the prospect of a one-on-one contest with Mamdani unlikely. Thus, while polls suggest Mamdani would falter in such a scenario, the political reality points toward a fractured electorate in which the socialist nominee’s passionate base could propel him to victory.

The Tulchin Research poll commissioned by the New York Apartment Association underscores the contradictions of the current mayoral race. On the one hand, it demonstrates that Zohran Mamdani commands a loyal plurality of voters, enough to make him the prohibitive favorite in a crowded field. On the other, it reveals the vulnerabilities of his platform should voters ever consolidate behind a centrist alternative such as Andrew Cuomo.

Whether those vulnerabilities are politically relevant remains unclear. With Adams, Sliwa, and Walden all vowing to stay in the race, Mamdani’s path to victory appears strong. Yet the release of the poll, and its amplification by skeptical analysts, illustrates the enduring reluctance of many political operatives to accept the rise of a socialist candidate in New York’s highest municipal office.

As The New York Post report observed, the mayoral contest has become less a straightforward election than a clash of narratives: Mamdani’s grassroots momentum versus the establishment’s determination to cast doubt on his electability. In a city where politics are as theatrical as they are consequential, the question is not only who can command a plurality of votes but who can convince New Yorkers that their vision truly represents the future of the five boroughs.