By: Fern Sidman

A new poll released by the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project and conducted with YouGov has sparked sharp debate over the Democratic Party’s future relationship with Israel. The survey, which gauged sentiment among 1,221 registered Democratic primary voters between September 11 and 24, revealed a notable shift: a majority of Democrats now say they would be more inclined to support candidates who oppose U.S. weapons transfers to the Jewish state.

According to the results, 57 percent of Democrats said they would be more likely to vote in the 2026 midterms for a congressional candidate who opposed sending billions of dollars in military assistance to Israel. Only 9 percent said such a position would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, while 34 percent claimed it would make no difference.

The findings have triggered alarm among pro-Israel observers. The Algemeiner reported on Friday that while the poll reflects the activist base of the Democratic Party, it also illustrates a growing rift between grassroots progressives and the party’s longstanding support for Israel at the institutional level.

Central to the poll was voter reaction to the Block the Bombs Act, a piece of legislation sponsored by progressive Democrats including Reps. Delia Ramirez (IL), Marc Pocan (WI), Sara Jacobs (CA), and Pramila Jayapal (WA). The bill would restrict the transfer of offensive weapons to Israel, only permitting them under specific circumstances authorized by Congress. It would also require Jerusalem to provide written assurances that such weapons would be used in compliance with international law.

According to the survey, 55 percent of Democrats said they would view a lawmaker favorably if they sponsored this legislation. Critics, however, including analysts cited in The Algemeiner report argue that such measures are rooted in a misrepresentation of Israel’s conduct and fail to acknowledge the threats posed by Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

Indeed, for Israel’s supporters, the legislation is not simply symbolic but dangerous. By conditioning U.S. support on bureaucratic hurdles and legalistic pledges, they say, the bill undermines Israel’s ability to defend itself in real time. As The Algemeiner reported, the idea of treating the Jewish state differently from other U.S. allies feeds into a double standard that emboldens those seeking to delegitimize Israel altogether.

Perhaps the most striking finding from the poll came in a question about the 2028 presidential election. An overwhelming 71 percent of Democratic respondents said they would prefer a candidate who “voted to withhold weapons to Israel.” By contrast, only 10 percent said they would favor a candidate who opposed such restrictions, while 19 percent remained unsure.

For observers cited in The Algemeiner, this represents a profound shift in Democratic priorities. It raises the possibility that future presidential hopefuls may be compelled to adopt explicitly anti-aid positions in order to appeal to primary voters. Such a trend, if it materializes, could fundamentally reshape the U.S.-Israel alliance, long considered a bipartisan cornerstone of American foreign policy.

Critics of the IMEU poll quickly pointed out its potential flaws. On social media, analysts noted that IMEU has a track record of framing survey questions in ways that cast Israel in a negative light—often invoking analogies to apartheid South Africa or suggesting Israel’s military actions violate human rights norms.

As The Algemeiner report observed, these framings may artificially inflate anti-Israel responses, particularly among younger progressives who lack deeper familiarity with the complexities of the conflict. The result, then, may not fully capture the breadth of Democratic opinion but instead reflect the views of a politically active minority influenced by one-sided narratives.

While the poll highlights the tensions within the Democratic base, it stands in stark contrast to the enduring bipartisan consensus in Washington. The Algemeiner report stressed that Congress has consistently approved annual military aid packages to Israel by overwhelming margins.

This support, codified in a ten-year Memorandum of Understanding guaranteeing $38 billion in security assistance, has been reaffirmed by successive administrations. President Donald Trump, in particular, has repeatedly underscored his administration’s commitment to Israel’s security, describing the alliance as vital not only for the Jewish state’s survival but also for American strategic interests in the Middle East.

Even among Democrats in Congress, efforts to restrict aid remain fringe. The overwhelming majority continue to back military support, recognizing Israel as a democratic ally facing existential threats.

Longitudinal polling from Gallup and Pew provides further nuance. While Democrats as a whole are more divided over Israel than Republicans, the U.S. public overall maintains a broadly favorable view of Israel and the U.S.-Israel relationship. For example, Gallup’s March 2024 survey found that 58 percent of Americans sympathized more with Israel than the Palestinians, though Democratic sympathy for Palestinians reached an unprecedented 49 percent.

The Algemeiner has often highlighted this divergence, noting that while progressives dominate discourse on university campuses, in activist circles, and increasingly on social media, the American mainstream still sees Israel as a vital partner.

For Jewish organizations and pro-Israel Democrats, the IMEU poll serves as a warning sign. If these trends continue, candidates may face mounting pressure to abandon or dilute their pro-Israel commitments in order to win primaries.

As The Algemeiner explained in its coverage of prior polls, such shifts risk normalizing anti-Israel sentiment within one of America’s two major parties. Once normalized, this sentiment can translate into policy, whether through legislative conditions on aid, diplomatic coldness, or outright disengagement.

This evolution is particularly concerning for American Jews, many of whom remain Democratic voters but view Israel’s security as non-negotiable. The fear, as expressed in interviews with The Algemeiner, is that Jewish voices may become increasingly marginalized within their own political home.

From Jerusalem’s perspective, the poll cannot be dismissed as irrelevant. While bipartisan support in Washington remains strong, the erosion of Democratic grassroots backing could erode Israel’s long-term security relationship with the United States.

Analysts cited in The Algemeiner report argue that Israel must prepare for a more polarized future in which its bipartisan consensus is increasingly fragile. Pro-Israel advocacy groups, they suggest, will need to redouble efforts to educate young Americans, especially Democrats, about the realities of the Middle East: Hamas’s charter calling for Israel’s destruction, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and Hezbollah’s arsenal in Lebanon.

The IMEU poll, while limited in scope and criticized for its framing, highlights a deepening divide within the Democratic Party over Israel. For progressives, opposition to military aid is fast becoming a litmus test. For moderates and pro-Israel advocates, it is a troubling sign that ideology may trump the hard realities of security and alliance-building.

As The Algemeiner concluded in its analysis of similar trends, the question is not whether Israel will remain a close U.S. ally—it almost certainly will—but whether one of America’s two major parties will continue to see that alliance as a bedrock principle or as a negotiable political bargaining chip.

The answer could shape not only the trajectory of U.S.-Israel relations but also the broader question of whether America’s political culture will continue to resist or succumb to the radical pressures of partisan polarization.