Poll Confirms Zohran Mamdani’s Commanding Lead in NYC Mayoral Race, Leaving Rivals in Political Freefall

By: Andrew Carlson

A newly released poll has upended the already turbulent New York City mayoral race, showing Democratic Socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani with an overwhelming lead heading into November’s general election. The results, published Tuesday by Zenith Research/Public Progress Solutions, reveal that Mamdani commands the support of half of likely voters — a figure that The New York Post described as a “political earthquake” in a city long dominated by establishment Democrats and pragmatic centrists.

The findings suggest that the fractured field of rivals, many of whom are scandal-scarred or tainted by past failures, have little hope of altering the trajectory of the race. Ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo, still struggling to rebuild his public standing after a humiliating defeat in June’s primary, trails far behind at 22%. Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee and perennial fixture of New York politics, stands at 13%, while former mayor Eric Adams — once considered the face of Democratic resilience in the city — languishes at just 7%.

According to the information provided in The New York Post report, the numbers underscore not only Mamdani’s personal momentum but also the political collapse of two once-formidable power brokers in Cuomo and Adams, both of whom now appear consigned to the margins of the city’s political future.

Mamdani’s projected victory is not just a statistical anomaly but a transformative moment in the city’s political evolution. At 33, the Queens assemblyman has become the standard-bearer for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), a movement that has steadily gained traction in local and state politics but has never before come so close to capturing New York’s mayoralty.

The report in The New York Post noted that Mamdani’s rise has been fueled by an aggressive grassroots campaign, built on a coalition of younger voters, progressive activists, and immigrant communities. His candidacy capitalizes on a sense of frustration with traditional politics, as many residents see him as an authentic alternative to career politicians mired in scandal or compromise.

Policy-wise, Mamdani has campaigned on issues ranging from affordable housing and transit equity to shifting policing resources and expanding municipal social programs. While critics accuse him of pursuing an agenda that could destabilize the city’s economy, The New York Post report observed that his ability to mobilize disaffected voters has been unmatched, giving him an edge even against opponents with far deeper political pedigrees.

For Andrew Cuomo, the poll represents a dramatic setback in his attempt to rebrand himself as a credible challenger. The former governor, once a dominant figure in both New York and national politics, has been unable to overcome the shadow of his resignation and the public distrust that followed.

The New York Post report emphasized that Cuomo’s favorability ratings remain stubbornly low, with nearly 60% of respondents declaring they would never consider voting for him. His decades of experience in governing, once a selling point, now appear to work against him in an electorate increasingly skeptical of establishment figures.

Even in a hypothetical one-on-one scenario against Mamdani, Cuomo fails to close the gap, trailing 55% to 40%. As The New York Post report explained, the numbers reflect not only Mamdani’s strong appeal but also Cuomo’s inability to escape the perception of being a relic of an older political order that many New Yorkers have decisively rejected.

If Cuomo’s decline is dramatic, Eric Adams’ collapse is nothing short of historic. The former police captain, elected mayor in 2021 with a reputation for tough-on-crime pragmatism, is now reduced to single-digit support, with just 7% of voters backing his independent campaign.

Adams’ downfall is rooted in his highly publicized corruption case, which dominated headlines for months before ultimately being dismissed under the Trump administration. While Adams has sought to portray himself as vindicated, the scandal permanently damaged his credibility, leaving many New Yorkers unwilling to trust him again.

The poll also revealed that 68% of respondents said they would never consider voting for Adams — a stunning repudiation of a figure who once seemed poised to reshape the city’s political landscape. The New York Post report described the data as “a near-total collapse of public confidence in a mayor who never recovered from the controversies of his time in office.”

Curtis Sliwa, the founder of the Guardian Angels and a longtime Republican activist, has fared somewhat better than Adams but still lags far behind the frontrunner. With 13% support, Sliwa retains a core constituency drawn to his law-and-order message, yet his appeal has failed to expand beyond his traditional base.

Sliwa’s campaign, while energetic, faces structural limitations in a city where Republicans remain heavily outnumbered. His consistent presence in New York politics has kept him relevant, but the poll suggests that his candidacy is unlikely to make a serious dent in Mamdani’s dominance.

One of the poll’s most revealing findings, highlighted in The New York Post report, is the futility of consolidation among Mamdani’s rivals. Analysts tested scenarios in which either Cuomo or Adams withdrew from the race in order to unite opposition voters. Yet neither scenario produced a meaningful shift in the outcome.

If Cuomo were to drop out, Mamdani still wins comfortably with 55% support, followed by Sliwa at 16% and Adams at 14%. If Adams were to withdraw, Mamdani secures 51%, compared to Cuomo’s 25% and Sliwa’s 15%. The New York Post report observed that these results illustrate the depth of Mamdani’s support base, which appears both unified and energized, unlike the fragmented coalitions behind his rivals.

The possibility of a socialist mayor in New York City carries significant implications not only for local governance but also for national politics. Mamdani’s rise has alarmed moderates and business leaders who fear that his agenda could disrupt the city’s fragile economic recovery and alter its reputation as a global financial hub.

At the same time, Mamdani’s ascent is seen by many on the left as a vindication of years of grassroots organizing. The New York Post report noted that his potential victory would represent the most significant electoral breakthrough yet for the Democratic Socialists of America, signaling a profound shift in the city’s political culture.

Observers suggest that Mamdani’s tenure could spark intense debates over issues ranging from policing and public safety to taxation and development. For supporters, these debates are overdue; for critics, they represent a dangerous experiment at a moment when the city remains vulnerable.

Underlying the entire contest is a profound sense of voter distrust in the old political order. While Mamdani inspires strong enthusiasm among his supporters, Cuomo and Adams are weighed down by high negatives, with majorities declaring they would never consider voting for either.

This dynamic, combined with Sliwa’s limited appeal, creates an environment in which Mamdani can thrive without needing to broaden his coalition. The poll suggests that his campaign has successfully harnessed voter frustration with scandals, corruption, and political inertia, transforming it into a powerful mandate for change.

As the November election approaches, Zohran Mamdani’s commanding lead positions him as the likely next mayor of New York City. The poll results confirm what The New York Post described as an unmistakable trend: the collapse of Cuomo and Adams, the stagnation of Sliwa, and the rise of a young socialist candidate who has captured the imagination of a disillusioned electorate.

Whether Mamdani’s potential victory marks the beginning of a new political era or an experiment fraught with risks remains to be seen. But as The New York Post report observed, one fact is now undeniable: the old guard of New York politics has been decisively eclipsed, and the city may soon be led by a figure who embodies its most radical political transformation in decades.