By: Tzirel Rosenblatt

As New York City barrels toward one of the most polarizing mayoral elections in recent history, a new Quinnipiac University poll has placed Democratic nominee and self-declared socialist Zohran Mamdani firmly ahead of his rivals. According to the survey, Mamdani commands 45% of the likely vote in the crowded four-way race, giving him a 22-point lead over his nearest challenger, former governor Andrew Cuomo, who trails at 23%.

The Republican nominee, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa, comes in third with 15%, while incumbent Mayor Eric Adams—running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary—languishes at 12%. For Adams, whose tenure has been marked by plummeting approval ratings and mounting controversy, the latest poll numbers underscore the perilous state of his campaign.

The Jewish News Syndicate (JNS) has closely tracked the city’s shifting political landscape, emphasizing in their report on Thursday how Mamdani’s ascent has coincided with a sharp decline in support from Jewish voters, many of whom view his record and rhetoric with alarm.

The Quinnipiac poll, conducted between September 4 and 8 among 967 likely New York City voters, paints a complicated picture of electoral enthusiasm. Among Mamdani’s supporters, 91% report they are “enthusiastic” about their candidate—a significantly higher share than supporters of Sliwa (79%), Cuomo (75%), or Adams (75%).

Mary Snow, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, noted that Mamdani’s momentum, just weeks before the November 4 election, suggests that the congressman has “the wind at his back” as the campaign intensifies. “While a lot can happen in the race between now and Election Day, Mamdani’s edge on enthusiasm among supporters is a plus,” she said.

Yet this enthusiasm is far from universal. Jewish voters—a crucial bloc in citywide elections—remain deeply skeptical of Mamdani’s candidacy. According to the poll, three-fourths of Jewish respondents view the Democratic nominee unfavorably. In contrast, Adams, despite his broader unpopularity across the electorate, remains the favored candidate among Jews, receiving 42% support compared to Mamdani’s 21%. Cuomo earned 20% among Jewish respondents, while Sliwa trailed further behind.

The JNS report highlighted the striking divide: while Mamdani enjoys broad citywide support, particularly among younger and progressive voters, his strained relationship with New York’s Jewish community threatens to inflame tensions in an already contentious race.

Mamdani’s rocky relationship with Jewish voters has not been without cause. As JNS has repeatedly reported, the candidate has adamantly refused to distance himself from inflammatory rhetoric that Jewish leaders say crosses into outright antisemitism.

One flashpoint has been Mamdani’s refusal to condemn the slogan “globalize the intifada.” The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) has denounced the phrase, arguing that it invokes “a decades-old history of attacks on the Jewish people” and constitutes “an act of incitement that encourages violence against Jews.” Mamdani, however, has sidestepped criticism, insisting that the slogan should be understood in the context of Palestinian resistance to Israeli policies.

Moreover, Mamdani has repeatedly accused Israel of committing “genocide” in Gaza, rhetoric that Jewish voters find both offensive and dangerous. As the JNS report observed, such remarks have only hardened perceptions among Jewish communities that Mamdani is fundamentally hostile to their concerns.

The polling data confirms this perception. Some 75% of Jewish voters see Mamdani unfavorably, a number that stands in stark contrast to his overall favorable rating of 45% to 36%.

The paradox of this race, as the JNS report pointed out, is that Eric Adams—whose administration has been battered by scandal and whose popularity has collapsed among the general electorate—remains the most trusted figure among Jewish New Yorkers.

Among Jewish respondents, Adams enjoys a 56% positive rating compared to 42% negative, even as his citywide approval stands at a dismal 28% approval to 66% disapproval. For many Jewish voters, Adams’ record of supporting police funding, cultivating relationships with Jewish leaders, and standing against antisemitism outweighs broader criticisms of his mayoralty.

In the Quinnipiac poll, Adams’ support among Jews (42%) is roughly double that of Mamdani (21%), with Cuomo (20%) and Sliwa (far less) dividing the remainder.

Still, Adams’ Jewish base may not be enough to salvage his faltering campaign. As the JNS report explained, Adams’ strategy of mounting an independent candidacy after losing the Democratic nomination has left him squeezed between Cuomo, who appeals to centrist voters, and Mamdani, whose energized progressive base dominates the Democratic coalition.

Andrew Cuomo, once a dominant force in New York politics, is also running as an independent after failing to secure the Democratic nomination. His 23% in the latest Quinnipiac poll reflects both lingering name recognition and the loyalty of some moderate Democrats and independents unwilling to back either Adams or Mamdani.

But Cuomo, too, faces skepticism from Jewish voters. As the poll shows, only 20% of Jews support him, and his favorability ratings within the community remain underwater. JNS has noted that many Jewish voters have not forgotten Cuomo’s fraught handling of issues related to Jewish schools and synagogues during the COVID-19 pandemic.

While Cuomo remains the candidate best positioned to challenge Mamdani directly, his inability to consolidate Jewish support suggests his coalition is fractured.

The JNS report emphasized how the mayoral race underscores a paradox within Jewish politics in New York. On the one hand, Jewish voters overwhelmingly disapprove of Mamdani, whose positions on Israel and the Middle East have sparked anger and fear. On the other hand, their preferred candidates—Adams and Cuomo—remain deeply unpopular citywide and struggle to mount a serious challenge to Mamdani’s progressive base.

As the JNS report explained, this leaves Jewish voters politically marginalized, holding significant sway in community-specific contexts but lacking the numbers to shift the broader trajectory of the race.

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee, has attempted to appeal to Jewish voters through his strong pro-Israel stance and tough-on-crime message. Yet with just 15% overall support in the poll, his candidacy appears unlikely to alter the final outcome.

The stakes of this election extend far beyond City Hall. Mamdani, a self-described socialist with roots in activism, represents a new wave of progressive leaders who combine leftist economic policies with sharp critiques of Israel. His polarizing rhetoric has resonated with younger voters, independents, and many Democrats, but it has also alarmed Jewish leaders, who see in his rise a troubling normalization of anti-Israel sentiment.

The JNS report framed the election as a microcosm of broader national and international trends, in which progressive factions of the Democratic Party increasingly clash with Jewish communities and pro-Israel advocates. The results in November will likely reverberate beyond New York, shaping debates about the Democratic Party’s future direction.

With less than two months until Election Day, the dynamics of the race appear to favor Mamdani, whose commanding lead and enthusiastic base give him a formidable advantage. Yet as JNS has reported, the Jewish community’s deep opposition to his candidacy highlights the fractures within New York’s diverse electorate and raises questions about how a Mamdani administration would navigate issues of antisemitism, community relations, and the city’s longstanding ties with Israel.

For now, Mamdani’s message continues to resonate with a broad coalition of progressives, independents, and younger voters, even as Jewish New Yorkers recoil from his dangerous rhetoric and positions. The challenge for Mamdani will not be winning the election—it will be governing a city where a sizable and influential community views him with suspicion, and in some cases, outright hostility.