Edited by: Fern Sidman

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, former President Donald Trump and his campaign strategists are predicting a potential breakthrough in garnering Jewish voter support, a demographic that has historically leaned heavily Democratic. According to a report on Sunday in The New York Post, Trump’s campaign believes that growing dissatisfaction among Jewish voters over rising anti-Semitism and the overt hostility toward Israel from hard-left Democrats could result in a record share of the Jewish vote for the GOP.

For decades, Jewish voters have been a reliable base for Democratic presidential candidates, with Democratic nominees typically securing around 70% or more of the Jewish vote. In contrast, Republican candidates have traditionally struggled to capture more than 30%. The Post report noted that even Republican icons such as Ronald Reagan and Dwight Eisenhower, who enjoyed widespread popularity, only managed to secure about 40% of the Jewish vote during their respective elections.

New York Post: Former President Donald #Trump could win a record share of Jewish voters in November.

“President Trump has a chance to get the largest share of the Jewish vote ever”, Trump campaign pollster John McLaughlin told The Post.#Israel #USA #USElection2024 https://t.co/8B6IgegnJc

— Karina Karapetyan (@KarinaKarapety8) August 12, 2024

 However, Trump campaign pollster John McLaughlin believes that 2024 could mark a significant shift in this longstanding trend. “President Trump has a chance to get the largest share of the Jewish vote ever,” McLaughlin told The Post. He pointed to anti-Semitism as a central issue driving this potential change. “Anti-Semitism is a real issue,” McLaughlin emphasized, noting that the Jewish community is increasingly concerned about rising incidents of anti-Semitic rhetoric and actions, particularly from elements within the Democratic Party.

The Trump campaign’s optimism is not unfounded. There is growing concern within the Jewish community about the horrifying escalation of anti-Semitic incidents in the United States and the antagonism of some Democrats’ stance on Israel. A was reported by The Post, this concern is particularly pronounced in the face of comments and actions by certain members of the Democratic Party’s  far-left progressive wing, who have been criticized for their harsh rhetoric toward Israel and their support for the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions (BDS) movement.

Former Long Island Representative Lee Zeldin, who is Jewish and was the 2022 Republican candidate for governor in New York, noted that Jewish voters are becoming increasingly aware of these shifts within the Democratic Party. “Jewish voters have taken notice that some Democrats have gone soft on Israel-bashing,” Zeldin told The Post. This growing discontent could lead to a significant reallocation of Jewish support in key battleground states.

Donald Trump is receiving near historic levels of 🇺🇸Jewish support in the 2024 Presidential race.
A prominent pollster says there’s a reason the Jewish vote appears to be shifting right…🇮🇱
Watch and share.@NEWSMAX #israel #amisraelchai #donaldtrump #kamalaharris pic.twitter.com/VwrO4FXKpD

— Daniel Cohen (@DanielCohenTV) August 12, 2024

Zeldin highlighted the deepening divide within the Democratic Party regarding its approach to Israel. “There’s so much hedging and equivocating about Israel in the Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party has allowed its pro-Hamas wing to metastasize,” Zeldin  said while speaking to The Post. This sentiment echoes the frustrations of many Jewish voters who feel that the party’s leadership has failed to decisively confront the rise of anti-Israel rhetoric among some of its members.

McLaughlin and other GOP strategists believe that even a modest increase in Jewish voter support for Trump could have a substantial impact on the outcome of the 2024 election, particularly in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, according to the information provided in The Post report. These states were decided by narrow margins in the 2020 election, with President Biden winning them by 3% or less. A shift of just a few percentage points among Jewish voters could tip the balance in favor of Trump and the GOP.

Why would any Jewish person vote for Democrats? They hate Jewish people.

“President Trump has a chance to get the largest share of the Jewish vote ever. Antisemitism is a real issue.”

Trump may ‘get the largest share of the Jewish vote ever’ for GOP: https://t.co/Axw4p3yEZv

— Missy 🇺🇸❤️ (@Amitt52) August 12, 2024

Moreover, the impact of this potential shift could extend beyond the presidential race. Down-ballot races, particularly House contests in swing districts, could also benefit from increased Jewish support for Republican candidates. The Post report revealed that McLaughlin pointed to six swing seats in New York suburbs, which are home to some of the largest Jewish neighborhoods in the country, as key targets where a boost in Jewish voter turnout for the GOP could be decisive.

While the GOP has made inroads with Jewish voters in recent years, particularly under Trump’s administration, a substantial realignment of this demographic would be historically significant. The report in The Post explained that Reagan and Eisenhower’s performances among Jewish voters in the 1980s and 1950s, respectively, were considered high-water marks for Republicans. If Trump were to exceed 40% of the Jewish vote, it would mark a dramatic shift in American political dynamics.

However, achieving this goal is not without challenges. The Jewish community is diverse, with varying views on issues ranging from domestic policy to Israel. While some Jewish voters may be swayed by concerns about anti-Semitism and Israel, others may remain aligned with the Democratic Party due to its positions on social justice, healthcare, and other key issues.

This growing anger has already manifested in recent Democratic primary elections. Noted in The Post report was that in New York’s 16th Congressional District, which encompasses parts of Westchester and The Bronx, Jewish voters played a crucial role in unseating Representative Jamaal Bowman, a member of the progressive “Squad” who has been criticized for his stance on Israel. Similarly, in Missouri, left-leaning Representative Cori Bush faced a significant backlash from Jewish voters, contributing to her recent primary defeat.

🔊 | @AlanDersh gave @JrzyJoePiscopo details on Trump leading Kamala Harris among Jewish voters in New York and the legal news of the day

Full Interview: https://t.co/eSd5SlGfXU pic.twitter.com/E7KbQgmlqz

— The Joe Piscopo Show (@JoePiscopoShow) August 9, 2024

A recent poll conducted by the Teach Coalition underscores the increasing motivation among Jewish voters, particularly in states such as Pennsylvania and key New York House districts, to participate in the upcoming election, as per the information provided in The Post report. The poll found that the surge in anti-Semitism and the Israel-Hamas war are major factors driving Jewish voter turnout.

In Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, Trump has garnered support from 43% of Jewish voters, according to the Teach Coalition survey. The report in The Post observed that this level of support is unprecedented for a Republican candidate in recent decades and suggests that the traditional alignment of Jewish voters with the Democratic Party is undergoing a significant transformation.

Two things:

– Trump is 100% right about Jewish voters. You either vote for safety and Abraham Accords, or for misery.

– I dislike Trump’s language on Iran. The mullahs never do deals. They’re evil charlatans. Hopefully he understands this once he’s back in office. pic.twitter.com/4IiW28xcJV

— 𝗡𝗶𝗼𝗵 𝗕𝗲𝗿𝗴 ♛ ✡︎ (@NiohBerg) August 8, 2024

The survey also highlighted the potential impact of Jewish voters in six battleground House districts in New York. These districts—1 and 4 on Long Island, 17, 18, and 19 in Westchester, Rockland counties, and the Hudson Valley, and 22 in the Syracuse region—are home to more than 300,000 potential Jewish voters, The Post report confirmed.  In these districts, Trump secured 37% of Jewish voter support, compared to 61% for his likely Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.

While these polling numbers suggest a significant shift, accurately gauging Jewish voter sentiment presents unique challenges. Many ultra-Orthodox Jewish voters, who represent a substantial portion of the community, often decline to participate in phone surveys. The Post report added that these voters frequently seek guidance from their rabbis before casting their ballots, making their voting behavior less predictable and more influenced by religious leadership than by traditional polling methods.

Despite these challenges, lawmakers from both parties agree that Jewish voters in areas like southern Brooklyn—which has a high concentration of ultra-Orthodox Jews and immigrants from the former Soviet Union—are likely to turn out in even greater numbers for the GOP in the upcoming election, as per the information contained in The Post report. These communities have historically leaned conservative, particularly on issues related to Israel and religious freedom, and the current political climate is expected to further galvanize their support for Republican candidates.

Republican City Councilwoman Inna Vernikov, herself a Jewish native of Ukraine, believes that the Jewish vote is poised to shift “to the right in “astronomical numbers” in the upcoming election. The Post reported that Vernikov, who represents a diverse district in Brooklyn that includes Gravesend, Coney Island, Brighton Beach, Midwood, Sheepshead Bay, Manhattan Beach, and Gerritsen Beach, attributes this shift to what she describes as a “deeply rooted anti-Semitic rot” within the Democratic Party.

Vernikov’s strong words reflect a broader sentiment of disillusionment among many Jewish Democrats, who feel increasingly alienated by the party’s leftward drift and clear cut growing tolerance for anti-Semitic rhetoric and actions within its ranks. “Jewish Dems feel betrayed, and they’re going to soundly reject it at the ballot box,” Vernikov asserted while speaking to The Post.  She pointed  to a growing frustration that could manifest in a significant realignment of Jewish voters toward the Republican Party.

State Senator Simcha Felder, a conservative Democrat representing the heavily Orthodox Jewish neighborhoods of Borough Park and Midwood, echoed this sentiment. Felder predicts that Trump will decisively defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in his district by a margin of more than 2 to 1, driven by widespread concerns about anti-Semitism, the migrant crisis, and inflation. “They are going to take it out on who is in power, and the Democrats are in power,” Felder told The Post, suggesting that Jewish voters, like many others, are feeling the strain of economic pressures and are increasingly disillusioned with the current administration.

Felder’s comments also underscore the broader economic anxieties facing Jewish families, particularly those with large households who are struggling with rising grocery costs and other inflation-related issues. “The free-for-all anti-Semitism acts affect Jewish people in a very bad way. But it’s not just that. Large Jewish families, like other families, are feeling the impact of inflation when they go to the grocery store,” Felder added, as was reported by The Post.

One of the most contentious issues contributing to this potential shift is the stance of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and other left-leaning factions within the Democratic Party. The report in The Post pointed out that Jewish voters, particularly those who are pro-Israel, have been deeply disturbed by the DSA’s unambiguous and vocal support for Hamas in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. This support has been seen by many as not only anti-Israel but overtly anti-Semitic.

“Some of the comments and actions taken by the Democratic Socialists of America are not only anti-Israel but anti-Semitic. There are Jewish voters nervous about the DSA,” noted a political analyst. This anxiety is driving a growing number of Jewish voters to reconsider their traditional support for the Democratic Party, with many now looking toward the GOP as a safer harbor for their values and concerns.

Despite these predictions and the growing discontent among Jewish voters, the Harris campaign remains dismissive of the notion that a significant number of Jewish voters will defect to Trump and the GOP. As was indicated in The Post report, Charles Lutvak, a spokesman for the Harris campaign, pointed to Trump’s controversial rhetoric and history of elevating figures associated with anti-Semitic views as reasons why Jewish voters would ultimately reject him.

“There is one candidate in this race who consistently denigrates American Jews, elevates Neo-Nazis and trafficks in anti-Semitic tropes, and it is Donald Trump,” Lutvak told The Post. “And our campaign is uniting voters who reject his rhetoric of hate and will defeat him at the ballot box in November.” The Harris campaign is banking on the argument that, despite frustrations with the Democratic Party, Jewish voters will ultimately find Trump’s track record on anti-Semitism and his inflammatory rhetoric unacceptable.

Trump last week said Jews who don’t vote for him should “have their head examined.”  The former president received overwhelming support for that statement from Israel supporters across the nation and the world and for those voters concerned by the alarming uptick in Jew hatred.