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Edited by: Fern Sidman

In a recent escalation of diplomatic warnings, the United States has reportedly issued a stern message to Iran, urging it to refrain from launching another attack on Israel and cautioning that Washington may not be able to moderate Israel’s response in the event of further aggression. As The Times of Israel reported on Sunday, the warning was delivered to Tehran directly, according to an unnamed U.S. official, though one Israeli source noted that the message may have been relayed via Swiss intermediaries.

The warning reflects the heightened state of tension following recent exchanges between Israel and Iran, which have already seen missile attacks and retaliatory strikes. The Times of Israel reported that according to Axios, a U.S. official reportedly told Iranian authorities, “We won’t be able to hold Israel back, and we won’t be able to make sure that the next attack will be calibrated and targeted as the previous one.” This statement highlights the risk of escalation if either side continues to take offensive actions.

Iran claims it is capable of building nuclear weapon as Ayatollah vows ‘tooth-breaking’ response to Israel, US https://t.co/TQNxStKBT3 #FoxNews

— Chuck Freyer (@FreyerChuck) November 3, 2024

The urgency of the U.S. warning comes in the wake of two notable exchanges between Israel and Iran in October. On October 1, Iran launched a missile strike that included some 200 ballistic missiles targeting Israel, sending civilians across the country rushing to shelters. Although the attack resulted in limited damage to military installations and some residential areas, it called attention to Iran’s increasing willingness to engage in direct military actions against Israel. A Palestinian man in the Jericho area was reported to have been killed during the incident.

In response, Israel launched its own retaliatory strike on October 26, targeting Iranian military facilities. The strikes, which Iran claims killed at least five people, included hits on strategic military infrastructure, signaling Israel’s determination to push back against perceived threats from Tehran, as was explained in The Times of Israel report. Following the Israeli strikes, Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a warning of “a crushing response” to both Israel and the U.S., further intensifying the rhetoric surrounding the conflict.

The 🚀-distance between Iran, the B-52s and F-16s is just 2-5 minutes.

How many of their aircraft does the US expect to get off the ground in time, and where are those that do supposed to go? These bases are well within the range of Iranian AD systems. Tripwired sitting ducks. https://t.co/3jtlH0yVxE pic.twitter.com/pObXn1cnZO

— polirealm (@polirealm) November 3, 2024

 With regional tensions already high due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and Israel’s concurrent ground operations in Lebanon, any further hostilities between Israel and Iran could quickly spiral into a broader Middle Eastern conflict. The report in The Times of Israel indicated that this looming risk is compounded by the timing of these escalations, coming just days ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Both Washington and Jerusalem are concerned that additional attacks could destabilize the region and disrupt current military and political agendas.

According to reports from Israel’s public broadcaster Kan, U.S. intelligence has detected “initial movements” that suggest Iran is assessing its options for a potential response to Israel’s recent strikes. However, Kan reported that it remains unclear what form this response might take or when it would occur, leaving the situation fraught with uncertainty.

Channel 12 news in Israel reported that Israel’s security establishment is considering the possibility that Iran may seek to retaliate indirectly through its network of Shiite militias in Iraq and Yemen rather than through direct strikes on Israeli soil, as per the information provided in The Times of Israel report. By opting for indirect measures, Iran could lower the risk of provoking another direct Israeli response on Iranian territory, which it has repeatedly sought to avoid. However, Israeli security officials have stated that they are prepared to respond forcefully to any attack, regardless of its origin or the specific proxy used to carry it out.

Israel attacked Iran through Iraqi airspace, so Iran may respond to Israel through Iraqi airspace

That won’t be close to a direct attack from within Iran

Tehran is anticipating Trump and will prob act in a manner to avoid further conflicts with the US and open doors for talks https://t.co/UauvwdGG6s

— Amirdaryoush Youhaei (@amirdaryoush) November 3, 2024

The potential for Iranian-backed groups to engage in asymmetric warfare adds another layer of complexity to the already volatile situation. Groups in Iraq, Yemen, and elsewhere have previously acted as conduits for Iran’s regional influence, often launching attacks on Iran’s behalf while maintaining a degree of plausible deniability, as was noted in The Times of Israel report. For Israel, any aggression from these proxies would likely be interpreted as an extension of Iran’s hostilities, potentially triggering further escalation.

The U.S. warning to Iran is part of Washington’s broader effort to contain the spread of conflict in the Middle East. The Times of Israel reported that the Biden administration is closely monitoring the situation, emphasizing the importance of restraint to prevent a full-scale regional war. While the U.S. remains an ally to Israel, Washington is aware that unchecked escalation could lead to severe instability across the region, affecting American interests as well as the security of its allies.

The U.S. diplomatic approach seeks to balance support for Israel’s security with a desire to avoid open warfare with Iran, a stance that reflects Washington’s strategic priorities in the Middle East. However, as the recent warning indicates, the U.S. is prepared to let Israel take more extensive action if Iran does not heed calls for restraint.

In a notable escalation of military posturing in the Middle East, Arab media reported Saturday that an Israeli Navy missile boat has crossed the Suez Canal into the Red Sea, equipped with an advanced launcher for the LORA missile system, which was developed by Israel Aerospace Industries. As The Times of Israel reported, the LORA system is capable of launching missiles with a range of up to 400 kilometers, placing key strategic sites within Iran’s reach. The deployment is seen as part of a broader show of force by Israel and the United States, which has recently increased its military presence in the region.

The Israeli Navy vessel, now positioned in the Red Sea, carries a launcher for the LORA missile, a high-precision weapon with substantial range and destructive potential. The LORA system, with its ability to reach targets up to 400 kilometers away, offers Israel significant tactical advantages in a volatile regional environment, as was indicated in The Times of Israel report. By positioning this missile-capable ship in the Red Sea, Israel is signaling its preparedness to counter threats from Iran and its regional allies.

The Suez Canal passage also highlights Israel’s tactical coordination with Egypt, showcasing regional collaboration to secure navigation routes and strategic access points. The report in The Times of Israel explained that this deployment comes as Iran has ramped up its rhetoric and threatened retaliatory action against both Israel and the U.S. for recent attacks on Iranian interests. This move signals Israel’s readiness to confront potential threats head-on, further reinforcing its strategic alliances in the region.

The Israeli vessel’s deployment aligns with a larger regional military buildup involving U.S. forces. The U.S. military, which operates throughout the Middle East, recently sent troops to Israel to man a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery, a sophisticated anti-missile system designed to intercept high-altitude projectiles. The Times of Israel noted that jn addition, the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is believed to be stationed in the Arabian Sea, positioned to project power and provide support in the event of heightened conflict.

Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder announced Friday that more U.S. destroyers, fighter squadrons, tankers, and B-52 long-range bombers would be sent to the region to deter Iran and its allies. The Times of Israel report said that on Sunday, the U.S. Central Command confirmed the arrival of the B-52 bomber, adding another layer of deterrence. The B-52, a long-range bomber capable of carrying heavy payloads, enhances the U.S.’s rapid-strike capability across the Middle East, signaling a formidable counter to Iranian aggression.

US 🇺🇲 B-52 bombers are deployed in Qatar, adjacent Iran 🇮🇷

These bombers are vulnerable to anti-aircraft systems, and the fact that now US decided to deploy them to deter Iran, is another proof that no advanced air defense capabilities remain in Iran after Israel’s attack. pic.twitter.com/1qRigf0fOy

— America🗽 (@mr_maga_) November 3, 2024

This increased military presence serves both as a reassurance to U.S. allies in the region and as a direct warning to Iran and its allied militias. The Times of Israel reported that these deployments are meant to strengthen the commitment of the U.S. and its allies to defend against Iranian hostilities, bolstering a multinational stance of deterrence.

On Saturday, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a stark warning, vowing “a crushing response” against both the U.S. and Israel. The report in The Times of Israel indicated that in a video released by Iranian state media, Khamenei stated that “the enemies, whether the Zionist regime or the United States of America, will definitely receive a crushing response to what they are doing to Iran and the Iranian nation and to the resistance front.” His comments reflect a more aggressive tone compared to previous statements, which had urged caution in Iran’s response.

Iran’s threats follow a recent Israeli strike that reportedly inflicted heavy damage on Iran’s ballistic missile production facilities. According to The Times of Israel, satellite images and multiple media reports indicate that the Israeli attacks destroyed at least a dozen solid fuel mixers, critical components in Iran’s missile development infrastructure, as well as essential air defense systems protecting key energy installations. These strikes have effectively disrupted Iran’s missile capabilities, weakening one of Tehran’s core defensive and offensive assets.

Initially, Khamenei attempted to minimize the significance of Israel’s strikes, suggesting they “should not be exaggerated nor downplayed,” as was reported by The Times of Israel.  However, as evidence of the damage became clear, Tehran found it difficult to maintain this stance. The attacks not only compromised Iran’s missile production but also dealt a blow to its national security infrastructure, fueling anger and calls for retaliation within the country.

With both Israel and the U.S. bolstering their military presence in the region, the risk of a broader conflict looms. The Times of Israel report pointed out that these moves come at a time of heightened tension in the Middle East, particularly with the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and Israel’s ground operations in Lebanon. Any further hostilities could ignite a larger confrontation involving multiple regional actors, especially given Iran’s influence over allied militias in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon.

As reported by Israel’s Channel 12, Israeli intelligence estimates that Iran may opt for an indirect response by using Shiite militias in Iraq or Yemen rather than engaging in direct confrontation. This approach would allow Iran to signal its willingness to retaliate without risking a full-scale Israeli assault on Iranian territory, The report in The Times of Israel said. However, Israeli security officials have reportedly stated that they are prepared to respond decisively to any attack, regardless of its origin, raising the stakes should Iranian proxies launch strikes.

Iran’s strategic network of regional proxies, collectively referred to by Tehran as the “Axis of Resistance,” has been significantly impacted by intensified Israeli strikes. According to The Times of Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip — Iran’s primary militant allies in its efforts against Israel — have suffered serious setbacks. Israel’s recent military actions have put considerable pressure on these groups, which serve as both offensive tools and defensive buffers for Iran, allowing it to wage indirect conflict with Israel and shield itself from direct military engagement.

For decades, Iran has maintained support for Hezbollah and Hamas, channeling military resources, funding, and ideological backing. This support has allowed Tehran to project influence across the region while avoiding direct confrontation with Israel. Hezbollah, entrenched in Lebanon, and Hamas, operating out of Gaza, have engaged in repeated hostilities with Israel over the years. While Hezbollah provides a northern threat to Israel, Hamas remains a focal point in the south.

These groups, however, have reportedly felt the impact of Israel’s ongoing operations. The Times of Israel reported that the sustained military campaign against Hamas in Gaza, launched after the October 7 massacre that claimed the lives of approximately 1,200 people and saw 251 others taken as hostages, has intensified Israel’s response against both Hamas and Hezbollah. In the aftermath of the massacre, Israel quickly initiated a large-scale military operation in Gaza, aiming to dismantle Hamas’ militant infrastructure and prevent further attacks on Israeli civilians.

Simultaneously, Hezbollah began launching rockets into Israel from Lebanon, escalating the situation on Israel’s northern front. In response, Israel has escalated its military strikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, with a stated aim to push Hezbollah forces away from the Israeli border. These operations are not only meant to neutralize Hezbollah’s immediate threat but also to enable the safe return of tens of thousands of Israeli citizens who were evacuated from northern Israel amid the recent hostilities.

Iran’s involvement in the region is not limited to support for Hezbollah and Hamas; it has also launched direct attacks on Israel, marking an unusual shift in its typically indirect approach. In April, Iran sent missiles and drones directly into Israeli airspace, a move that raised concerns about the extent of Tehran’s willingness to engage Israel directly. This unprecedented escalation reflects Iran’s commitment to its anti-Israel agenda, even as it faces mounting internal challenges.

On the domestic front, Iran is grappling with a severely weakened economy due to years of international sanctions. The Times of Israel reported that Iran’s economy has been under significant strain, affecting its ability to maintain the level of support traditionally provided to its proxies. In addition, the country has faced widespread protests and civil unrest, reflecting internal dissatisfaction with the government. These domestic issues have created additional pressure on Tehran, complicating its efforts to maintain its influence over the Axis of Resistance and support regional proxy activities.

 Despite these challenges, Iran continues to articulate its long-standing objective of opposing Israel’s existence. Iranian leaders have consistently threatened to “wipe out” the Jewish state, a narrative Tehran uses to consolidate its regional alliances and legitimize its Axis of Resistance, the report added. The regional and ideological bond uniting Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas serves as both a tool for destabilizing Israel and a mechanism for Iran to exert control in the Middle East.

Adding to the complex web of geopolitical dynamics is the 45th anniversary of the U.S. Embassy hostage crisis, a milestone in Iranian history that will be commemorated on November 4. According to The Times of Israel, the crisis began on November 4, 1979, when Islamist students stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, taking 52 American diplomats and citizens hostage in a standoff that lasted 444 days. This event marked a turning point in U.S.-Iran relations, laying the foundation for decades of enmity that continue to define the geopolitical landscape of today.

The embassy hostage crisis set the stage for Iran’s anti-Western and anti-Israeli stance, which has since been central to Tehran’s foreign policy. The report in The Times of Israel also indicated that the ideological underpinnings of the Axis of Resistance are rooted in the same anti-imperialist sentiment that fueled the 1979 revolution, and the network of proxy groups Iran has cultivated in the region is a direct manifestation of its continued opposition to Western and Israeli influence.

Israel’s efforts to curtail Hezbollah’s presence near its northern border, along with its military campaign against Hamas in Gaza, pose a significant challenge to Iran’s long-term strategy. The setbacks faced by these groups undermine Iran’s ability to exert asymmetric pressure on Israel and reduce Tehran’s defensive buffer against a potential Israeli counterattack. For Hezbollah and Hamas, there is an increasing sense of vulnerability and, according to analysts, a desire for Iran to provide even greater military support to counter Israel’s advancements.

Israel’s commitment to neutralizing the threats posed by Hezbollah and Hamas reflects its broader strategy of securing its borders and mitigating Iran’s regional influence. By diminishing the capabilities of Iran’s proxies, Israel seeks to establish a deterrent posture and reduce the frequency and intensity of attacks from Hezbollah and Hamas. Nevertheless, the escalating violence raises the risk of a wider conflict that could draw in other regional actors and strain U.S. alliances in the Middle East.

Amid these developments, the United States continues to play a critical role in supporting Israeli defense initiatives and ensuring stability in the region. The U.S. presence, including military deployments and strategic partnerships, serves as a counterweight to Iran’s regional influence and provides Israel with critical resources and diplomatic backing. However, as tensions escalate and Iran’s allies call for stronger military responses, Washington faces the challenge of balancing its support for Israel with the need to avoid a broader regional conflict.

As The Times of Israel reported, the situation remains precarious, with the potential for further hostilities looming. Iran’s Axis of Resistance, weakened by recent Israeli strikes, will likely seek ways to recover its position and reassert its influence. How Iran navigates its internal challenges while supporting its proxies will be crucial in determining the future dynamics of the Middle East, where a fragile balance hangs between deterrence and escalation.