By: Fern Sidman

A majority of Israelis support maintaining military control over the Gaza Strip following the conclusion of the ongoing war, according to a newly published survey by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA). The findings, based on research conducted by Menachem Lazar of Lazar Research, reflect a decisive shift in Israeli public opinion on key national security issues in the wake of the October 7 Hamas attacks and the ensuing conflict in Gaza.

As The Jewish News Syndicate (JNS) reported on Friday, the survey revealed that 52% of Israelis favor an Israeli takeover of Gaza under a temporary military administration — provided that all Israeli hostages are released first. This data underscores a significant consensus among the Israeli public that military governance, at least in the interim, is preferable to a return to the pre-war status quo.

Only a marginal 4% of respondents expressed support for Hamas remaining in power, either politically or militarily, in Gaza — a figure that JNS highlighted as indicative of Hamas’s near-total loss of legitimacy in Israeli public opinion.

The JCFA survey sampled over 700 Israeli citizens — both Jews and Arabs — aged 18 and above. The poll, conducted at the beginning of July, aimed to capture a broad cross-section of Israeli perspectives on post-war Gaza governance, the prospect of a Palestinian state, relations with the Palestinian Authority (P.A.), and broader regional security issues involving Iran and Syria.

The results reflect a critical juncture in Israeli public sentiment, shaped by both immediate security concerns and longstanding geopolitical realities.

One of the most striking findings, as detailed in the JNS report is the pronounced opposition to the establishment of a Palestinian state along the pre-1967 lines. According to the JCFA data, 64% of Israelis oppose Palestinian statehood entirely. Only 8% support the creation of a Palestinian state without preconditions, while 17% would agree if Palestinians formally recognize Israel as a Jewish state and accept demilitarization.

Among Jewish respondents, opposition to Palestinian statehood was even more pronounced. 77% of Jewish Israelis reject the idea outright, with that figure rising to 88% among right-wing voters. In contrast, Arab respondents showed more divided views, with 34% favoring an unconditional Palestinian state and 26% supporting it if certain conditions are met.

Even the prospect of normalization with Saudi Arabia — a factor long considered by diplomats as potentially tied to Palestinian statehood — did little to sway Israeli opinion.  58% of respondents remained opposed to a Palestinian state even if it was part of a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal. Only 24% would support statehood under strict conditions, and just 8% would agree unconditionally.

Among Jewish Israelis, the opposition was even more pronounced, with 68% rejecting Palestinian statehood regardless of any accompanying diplomatic incentives.

Public confidence in the Palestinian Authority also appeared starkly low. JNS reported that 53% of Israelis oppose any role for the P.A. in post-war Gaza governance, compared to only 26% who support involving it.

Among Jewish respondents, opposition to the P.A. playing a role in Gaza rises to 59%. Conversely, among Arab Israelis, support for P.A. involvement was higher, with 30% backing such a move.

This data reflects a broader skepticism within Israeli society about the P.A.’s ability — or willingness — to serve as a stabilizing force in the region, particularly given its complex political relationships and previous failed governance efforts in Palestinian territories.

The JCFA survey also captured Israeli sentiment regarding Iran, particularly concerning Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions. As the JNS report highlighted, 76% of Israelis support further military action against Iran if the regime attempts to rebuild its nuclear or ballistic programs.

Of those, 37% favor military action only if coordinated with the United States, while 39% expressed support for unilateral Israeli action if necessary. Only 13% of respondents opposed any form of military strike.

This strong backing for potential action against Iran reflects persistent Israeli fears over Tehran’s regional influence and the existential threat posed by its nuclear ambitions.

The fear of another large-scale terror attack — similar to Hamas’s October 7 massacre — remains palpable among Israelis, particularly concerning the security situation in Judea and Samaria. According to the information provided in the JNS report, 66% of Israelis expressed fear of a similar massacre originating from these territories.

The fear was particularly acute among Jewish respondents, with 77% voicing concern, compared to just 22% among Arab Israelis. Among right-wing respondents, 80% expressed fear of a new attack, while the left showed lower levels of concern, with 43% indicating they were not afraid.

These figures underscore ongoing security anxieties within Israel and widespread apprehension about the potential for future coordinated attacks.

When it comes to normalization of relations with Syria, Israeli opinions remain cautious. Only 7% support unconditional normalization, according to the JCFA survey data cited by JNS.

However, conditional support is significant — 42% would favor normalization if Israel retained security freedom in the region, while 23% would agree if Syria dropped its claims to the Golan Heights. Only 10% of respondents opposed normalization under any circumstances.

This nuanced view reflects Israeli concerns over maintaining strategic security interests in the Golan Heights and skepticism about the Assad regime’s intentions.

Commenting on the survey’s findings, JCFA President Dan Diker articulated what the JNS report described as a growing consensus among the Israeli public. “There is no place for Hamas in Gaza on the day after the war,” Diker stated.

Diker stressed that the Israeli public categorically rejects the notion of sacrificing the enormous cost of war — in lives, resources, and national security — only to restore a political arrangement resembling the volatile status quo that existed prior to October 7, 2023.

The JCFA survey results reflect a decisive consolidation of Israeli public opinion on critical security and diplomatic issues. From the rejection of Hamas’s continued presence in Gaza to widespread opposition to a Palestinian state and deep skepticism toward the Palestinian Authority, the findings suggest a national consensus forged in the crucible of conflict.

On broader regional matters — including the Iran threat and Syrian normalization — Israelis show both resolve and caution, guided by the imperative of maintaining security and national sovereignty.

As the JNS report indicated, the data paints a picture of a society shaped by recent traumatic events but also united in its strategic outlook. The JCFA’s findings are likely to influence both Israeli policymaking and international diplomatic engagements in the critical months ahead.