By: Fern Sidman

The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), one of the most influential U.S.-based management consulting firms, has reportedly developed an economic model examining the voluntary relocation of Palestinians from Gaza to countries such as Somalia and Somaliland, according to a report first disclosed by the Financial Times and covered on Thursday by VIN News.

The revelations point to an internal presentation prepared by BCG for a group of Israeli business leaders engaged in brainstorming post-war reconstruction scenarios for the Gaza Strip. While the firm emphasized that the analysis was economic in nature and not grounded in current diplomatic negotiations, the disclosure has stirred renewed scrutiny over controversial relocation proposals tied to Gaza’s future—and BCG’s potential role in their development.

According to individuals familiar with the slide deck cited by the Financial Times, the BCG presentation projected that approximately 25 percent of Gaza’s population could voluntarily opt to emigrate if given the opportunity and economic incentives to resettle elsewhere. The model suggested that the majority of those who leave would be unlikely to return.

As VIN News reported, the relocation model appears to have focused on exploring the economic feasibility and long-term benefits for potential host countries, rather than providing a prescriptive resettlement plan. “This was an exercise in understanding potential opportunities—not policy-making,” said one source with knowledge of the BCG project.

While BCG has declined to publicly comment on the report, the company’s involvement in developing such a scenario—however theoretical—has ignited debate within humanitarian and geopolitical circles over the role of private consultancies in shaping sensitive regional policy options.

The voluntary relocation model aligns with ideas previously floated by President Donald Trump, who publicly suggested transforming Gaza into a resort-style economic hub in coordination with regional partners, while promoting the “voluntary” migration of its residents. According to the information provided in the VIN News report, some elements of that vision have been echoed by Israeli figures since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, which triggered the current war.

Israeli officials, grappling with the challenge of eliminating Hamas’s presence while formulating long-term strategies for Gaza, have privately explored options involving demographic restructuring as part of broader reconstruction frameworks. While no official Israeli government endorsement of the BCG model has been reported, its development for Israeli businessmen suggests it may be influencing elite-level policy discussions.

Sources cited by both the Financial Times and VIN News were clear in emphasizing that BCG’s model was not the result of any formal negotiations between governments or international bodies. Rather, the work was described as a private-sector initiative commissioned to assess economic viability, not to recommend policy or execute logistical planning.

Nonetheless, the political implications are difficult to ignore. As the VIN News report noted, the concept of relocating Gaza’s population—even under the banner of voluntary resettlement—has been sharply condemned by Arab nations and much of the international community, which view it as a violation of international law and a dangerous precedent for mass population displacement.

In addition to its reported involvement in the relocation model, BCG has played a key role in setting up the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, an entity established to manage the distribution of aid throughout the war-torn enclave. As the VIN News report highlighted, BCG’s connection to the foundation underscores its increasing engagement with the logistical and strategic aspects of post-conflict Gaza—though the firm maintains that its role remains confined to advisory and operational support.

The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is designed to streamline aid distribution from multiple donor countries and institutions, and has reportedly attempted to ensure transparency and efficiency in a region long plagued by diversion of humanitarian supplies. The foundation’s operations have at times intersected with security concerns, particularly in relation to aid supplies potentially being commandeered by Hamas or other militant groups.

The disclosure of BCG’s relocation model has raised broader ethical concerns about the involvement of multinational corporations in politically charged scenarios that touch on forced migration, sovereignty, and the rights of displaced populations. While BCG has not commented publicly, critics argue that even theoretical planning for mass population movement—especially in an active war zone—risks legitimizing controversial policies and undermining international norms.

Some analysts have compared the situation to earlier episodes of privatized influence in post-conflict settings, including reconstruction efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, where consulting firms played significant roles in shaping government and economic systems. As VIN News has pointed out in past reporting, the line between strategic modeling and political influence is often blurred in such environments.

The selection of Somalia and Somaliland as hypothetical host countries has also provoked concern among regional experts. Both territories face complex internal dynamics and limited infrastructure capacity, leading many to question the feasibility of absorbing large numbers of migrants from Gaza—even on a voluntary basis.

According to the information contained in the VIN News report, officials in Somalia have made no public statements on the matter, and there is no indication that any formal discussions have taken place between BCG representatives and East African governments. Analysts familiar with the Horn of Africa warn that introducing a Palestinian refugee population into such fragile political contexts could exacerbate existing tensions.

It remains unclear whether the BCG model will influence official Israeli policy or international donor strategies in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has not commented on the matter, and BCG’s reticence suggests it is seeking to avoid becoming a focal point in the broader geopolitical debate.

Still, the very existence of such a relocation model—paired with BCG’s ongoing involvement in Gaza through the Humanitarian Foundation—signals the growing role that private firms play in post-conflict reconstruction and humanitarian logistics.

As the VIN News report indicated, discussions about the future of Gaza are increasingly shaped not only by military and diplomatic actors but also by powerful consulting firms and business leaders. Whether this model becomes a blueprint or is consigned to theoretical archives remains to be seen, but its emergence offers a revealing glimpse into the backchannels of global policymaking—and the economic frameworks being developed in the shadow of one of the Middle East’s most intractable conflicts.