U.S. Intelligence: Iran Seeks to Undermine Trump’s Presidential Campaign Through Covert Online Influence Operations

Edited by:  Fern Sidman

In a significant revelation, U.S. intelligence officials have indicated that Iran is actively engaging in covert online influence operations aimed at harming Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. According to a report that appeared on Monday in The Wall Street Journal, the assessment suggests that Tehran fears a potential return of Trump to the White House would exacerbate tensions between Iran and the United States.

During a press briefing on Monday, an official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) highlighted Iran’s motivations. “We have observed Tehran working to influence the presidential election, probably because Iranian leaders want to avoid increased tensions with the U.S.,” the official stated, as was reported by the WSJ.  This marks a strategic shift from previous intelligence assessments which suggested Iran was primarily focused on creating chaos in the U.S. election landscape.

A declassified intelligence report from March 2021 unveiled Iran’s covert attempts to influence the U.S. elections through cyber operations and intimidation tactics. The WSJ reported that these findings, along with recent developments concerning heightened threats against former President Donald Trump, highlight the ongoing and multifaceted nature of Iran’s strategic objectives against U.S. interests.

The intelligence community’s current assessment indicates continuity in Iran’s strategic preferences. “We haven’t observed a shift in Iran’s preferences since 2020,” the intelligence official noted. The WSJ report indicated that in the 2020 election, Tehran’s activities were similarly focused on undermining Trump’s candidacy, driven by the strained relations during his presidency which were marked by the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal as well as the imposition of severe economic sanctions on the rogue regime.

Intelligence officials revealed that Iran’s efforts are largely driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a designated terrorist organization under the leadership of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The IRGC is known for its extensive network and capabilities in conducting covert operations.

Despite these assertions from U.S. intelligence, Iran has categorically denied any involvement in influencing the U.S. elections. A spokesman for the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York stated, “Iran does not engage in any objectives or activities intended to influence the U.S. election,” as per the information in the WSJ report. The spokesman further dismissed the allegations as “psychological operations designed to artificially pep up election campaigns.”

Intelligence officials have detailed Iran’s methods, which include the use of “vast webs of online personas and propaganda mills to spread disinformation.” These operations are designed to sow distrust in U.S. political institutions and amplify social discord, particularly in the context of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, as was revealed in the WSJ report.  Earlier this month, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated that Iran’s activities surrounding the Gaza protests involved not only online agitation but also financial support to protesters.

Additionally,  the information contained in the WSJ report indicated that Iran sent threatening emails to Democratic voters, which falsely appeared to be from the far-right Proud Boys group. These emails were designed to intimidate voters and sow discord.

The report emphasized that these operations were low-cost and highly scalable, leveraging digital platforms that did not necessitate physical presence within the United States, the report in the WSJ said. By adopting such tactics, Iran could efficiently and effectively extend its influence operations across a broad spectrum of targets without significant resource expenditure.

While the primary goal appears to be the destabilization of U.S. political cohesion, there is also a discernible preference for an electoral outcome that would avoid a renewal of the stringent anti-Iran policies that were characteristic of Trump’s first term.

Former President Trump’s tenure saw a significant escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions. One of the most notable actions was Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the international agreement aimed at limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief, as per the WSJ report. This move was widely criticized and led to the reinstatement of severe economic sanctions on Iran, further straining diplomatic relations.

In January 2020, the Trump administration authorized a drone strike that killed General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force. The WSJ report affirmed that this assassination marked a pivotal moment, dramatically increasing hostilities and prompting vows of retaliation from Iranian leadership.

During the most recent briefing, officials reiterated that Russia remains the foremost threat to the integrity of the U.S. elections. According to the information in the WSJ report, Russia’s influence operations are described as highly sophisticated and represent a comprehensive, “whole-of-government” effort. This aligns with the Kremlin’s historical pattern of interference, observed in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns.

Intelligence officials noted that Moscow continues to favor Donald Trump, mirroring its preferences from previous elections. This stance has not shifted despite President Biden’s recent decision to withdraw from the race. Noted in the WSJ report was that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s primary objective is to oppose candidates likely to support increased military aid to Ukraine, a key concern for the Kremlin given the ongoing conflict in the region.

In recent weeks, the Biden administration identified an increased threat level from Iran directed at former President Trump. This assessment, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, was serious enough to warrant additional security measures for Trump. These threats appear to be a direct response to the actions taken during his presidency, particularly the assassination of General Soleimani and the abandonment of the nuclear agreement.

Interestingly, these heightened threats have no apparent connection to the recent attempted assassination of Trump in Pennsylvania by Thomas Matthew Crooks, the WSJ reported. U.S. officials clarified that Crooks’ actions were not linked to Iranian operations, suggesting that domestic threats are being addressed separately from foreign influence activities.

As the U.S. navigates these challenges, the importance of robust cybersecurity measures and vigilant intelligence operations cannot be overstated. Ensuring the integrity of the electoral process and safeguarding public figures from international threats are critical components of maintaining national security and democratic stability. As the 2024 election approaches, the lessons learned from past and present threats will be pivotal in shaping the strategies to counter foreign influence and protect the democratic process.