Edited by: Fern Sidman

Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium grew by over a quarter in the three months to May, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported,  according to a recently published Wall Street Journal article. This added to the concerns over the speed with which Tehran is accumulating 60% highly enriched uranium that can be quickly converted into weapons-grade material for nuclear weapons, the WSJ report said.  U.S. officials have said it could take Iran as little as 12 days to have enough fuel for a bomb.

On May 3^rd of this year, the United States Institute of Peace’s Iran Primer report indicated that between 2018 and 2023, Iran breached several of the most stringent restrictions imposed by the nuclear deal with the world’s six major powers. It enriched uranium to almost 84 percent—far higher than the 3.67 percent allowed by the deal or what would be needed for a civilian nuclear reactor to generate power and conduct medical research. Its enrichment was dangerously close to the 90 percent needed to fuel a bomb. It produced far more sophisticated centrifuges capable of enriching uranium faster. In a defiant standoff, Tehran also disconnected cameras installed by the International Atomic Energy Agency—the U.N. nuclear watchdog—to monitor its program and refused access to IAEA inspectors, as was reported by the USIP.

“Iran is taking actions to improve its capabilities to produce a nuclear weapon, should it make the decision to do so, while continuing to build its missile forces,” Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned in March 2023, as was reported by the USIP. Iran’s breakout time – the time needed to enrich enough uranium to a level usable for one bomb – was down from a year when the deal was brokered in 2016 to “10 to 15 days” in 2023. Iran would also only need “several months to produce an actual nuclear weapon,” he said, according to the USIP reported.

According to the WSJ report, the IAEA said on Wednesday that Iran has also taken its first steps in several years to improve the United Nations atomic agency’s oversight of its nuclear work. Iran’s decision to provide the agency with more oversight of certain aspects of its nuclear work and to address some specific questions the IAEA had about Iran’s activities suggests the space for a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear work remains open, the WSJ reported.

The IAEA’s confidential reports, circulated to member states on Wednesday, come after efforts by the Biden administration to revive the 2015 nuclear deal appear to have failed, the WSJ reported. That agreement placed strict but temporary limits on Iran’s nuclear activities. The WSJ reported also stated that the Trump administration decided that the US would leave the deal in 2018, arguing it wouldn’t stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

U.S. officials continue to insist they are seeking a diplomatic route to avoid a conflict over Iran’s nuclear work. The WSJ also reported that Washington is still examining a range of options to prevent Tehran developing a nuclear weapon, U.S. officials have said in recent weeks.

The USIP web site reported that in January 2023, the IAEA discovered that Iran had altered the connection between cascades of centrifuges – the cylindrical machines that enrich uranium – at the Fordo facility without notifying the U.N. watchdog. Inspectors also found traces of uranium enriched to 83.7 percent, very close to weapons-grade purity or 90 percent. Iran claimed that “unintended fluctuations in enrichment levels may have occurred,” according to a February IAEA report. The agency concluded that Iran had not accumulated uranium enriched to 83.7 percent.

The USIP reported also stated that on Feb. 28, 2023 Iran had accumulated 87.5 kilograms (192.9 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60 percent, an increase of 40 percent since the previous quarterly IAEA report. Its total stockpile of enriched uranium was 3,760.8 kilograms (8,291.1 pounds).

After years of stonewalling, Iran pledged on March 4, 2023 to cooperate with a U.N. probe into traces of uranium at three undeclared sites that date back to a covert program before 2003, as was reported on the USIP web site. Tehran also promised to reinstall monitoring equipment, including cameras, that had been removed from nuclear facilities in June 2022. The IAEA and Iran “put a tourniquet on the bleeding of information and lack of continuity of knowledge,” Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said after two days of talks in Tehran.

In May 2023, the IAEA reportedly began reinstalling cameras at Iranian nuclear sites. Iran had removed 27 cameras in June 2022.

Iran says it has never sought to build a nuclear weapon and that its nuclear work is for entirely peaceful purposes, the WSJ report indicated.  Since the US left the nuclear accord in 2018, it has vastly expanded its nuclear activities. It is now the only country without nuclear weapons to produce highly enriched 60% material, the WSJ report said.

In one of two reports sent to member states, the IAEA said Tehran had stockpiled 114 kg of highly enriched uranium as of May 13, an increase of 27% over the previous three months, the WSJ reported.  That is roughly enough to fuel at least two nuclear weapons. Iran also now has close to two metric tons of lower-grade enriched uranium, including 470 kg of 20% enriched uranium, which can be converted into highly enriched uranium in several weeks, experts say, according to the WSJ report.

With Israeli officials warning they could take military action against Iran if it produces 90% weapons-grade material, U.S. and European officials have been considering ways of preventing a nuclear crisis, including some kind of freeze of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for modest sanctions relief for Iran, the WSJ reported. Iran has said only a full return to the 2015 nuclear deal and a broad lifting of U.S. sanctions would persuade it to roll back its nuclear work.

In other Iran related news, the USIP web site reported on Thursday that on June 1, the United States sanctioned five Iranian men and a Turkish airline for plotting terrorist attacks and assassinations