From F-35s to Hamas: Erdogan’s White House Meeting With Trump Could Redefine Regional Power Balance

By: Fern Sidman

When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lands in Washington on September 25 for his scheduled meeting with President Donald Trump, the encounter will be far more than a bilateral discussion. It will be a moment thick with symbolism, transactional promises, and geopolitical implications, especially given Ankara’s strained ties with Israel and Erdogan’s record of using U.S. support to pursue aggressive regional ambitions.

As The Jerusalem Post reported on Sunday, Erdogan and Trump historically enjoyed an unusually close rapport during Trump’s first term, one that emboldened Ankara to test boundaries across the Middle East and Mediterranean. This new White House encounter, held in the shadow of the United Nations General Assembly, will signal whether Erdogan sees another opportunity to leverage his ties with Trump to push forward Turkey’s expansive agenda.

Trump himself has already previewed what the Turkish leader intends to place at the center of the talks: arms and trade deals. In a Truth Social post, the president listed out an ambitious agenda, including the large-scale purchase of Boeing aircraft, a “major F-16 deal,” and even the revival of talks on the long-disputed F-35 fighter jet program.

“We are working on many Trade and Military Deals with the President, including the large-scale purchase of Boeing aircraft, a major F-16 Deal, and a continuation of the F-35 talks, which we expect to conclude positively,” Trump wrote.

For Ankara, these talks go beyond procurement. Turkey was ousted from the F-35 program after acquiring the Russian S-400 air defense system, a move that soured relations with Washington and raised alarms within NATO. Erdogan now hopes that the transactional nature of Trump’s diplomacy, described frequently by The Jerusalem Post, will pave the way for Turkey’s reintegration into the program, thereby restoring its standing within NATO’s defense architecture.

Turkey’s behavior during Trump’s first presidency offers a cautionary tale. Between 2017 and 2020, Ankara pursued a series of aggressive regional campaigns, confident that Washington would look the other way.

In 2018, Turkey launched an invasion of Afrin in northwestern Syria, forcing much of the Kurdish population to flee. One year later, Erdogan secured U.S. acquiescence to invade eastern Syria, striking at America’s Kurdish allies—the Syrian Democratic Forces—who had borne the brunt of the fight against ISIS. Trump ordered U.S. troops to stand down as Turkey advanced, creating chaos on the ground and opening the way for atrocities, including the murder of Kurdish activist Hevrin Khalaf.

The Jerusalem Post report indicated that these operations were not isolated incidents but part of a pattern in which Ankara exploited U.S. goodwill to expand its reach. During the same period, Erdogan’s government intensified maritime disputes with Greece, dispatched naval vessels to assert control over energy exploration rights, and inserted itself into Libya’s civil conflict by deploying forces and brokering deals with Tripoli.

Perhaps most controversially, Ankara welcomed Hamas leaders repeatedly, underscoring Turkey’s deepening ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and signaling a confrontational posture toward Israel.

Erdogan’s assertive foreign policy has been matched by sweeping domestic control. Following the failed coup attempt in 2016, he consolidated power to unprecedented levels, transforming Turkey’s political system into one dominated by the ruling AKP party and a presidency unchallenged by institutional checks.

Under Erdogan’s stewardship, Turkey has expanded its military-industrial complex, emerging as a leading exporter of drones that have shaped conflicts from Libya to Nagorno-Karabakh to Ukraine. Ankara’s role as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war further underscored its ability to straddle divides between NATO and rival powers.

As The Jerusalem Post report observed, Turkey has not confined its ambitions to its near-abroad. It has sought closer ties with BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, extending its footprint in Africa and recalibrating relations with Gulf states after initially backing Qatar in the 2017 Gulf crisis.

Throughout these shifts, Ankara’s relationship with Israel has remained fraught. Erdogan threatened to downgrade ties when the Abraham Accords were signed in 2020, hoping to derail the normalization wave between Israel and its Arab neighbors. While Turkey has since made gestures toward repairing relations—especially in trade and tourism—its ideological commitment to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood remains a sticking point.

Erdogan’s decision to host Hamas leaders, even as the group continues attacks on Israel, has been condemned repeatedly in The Jerusalem Post as evidence of Ankara’s duplicity: seeking closer ties with Washington on one hand while emboldening Israel’s enemies on the other.

The timing of Erdogan’s Washington visit is particularly sensitive. Just days ago, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia formally recognized Palestinian statehood—a move Erdogan is likely to interpret as a tailwind for his own pro-Palestinian agenda. Ankara has consistently pressed for greater recognition of Palestinian claims, and Erdogan may view Trump as a potential lever to pressure Israel further on Gaza.

What makes this meeting so consequential is the uncertainty over where Turkey stands. Once guided by the policy of “zero problems with neighbors,” Ankara has instead emerged as a regional powerhouse that thrives on disruption. From supporting Azerbaijani offensives against Armenia to hedging its bets with both Russia and Iran, Turkey has positioned itself as a decisive but unpredictable actor.

For Washington, the question is whether Trump will repeat the permissive approach of his first term or demand clearer boundaries. As The Jerusalem Post report pointed out, Erdogan thrived in the environment of transactional deals and selective U.S. disengagement, interpreting Trump’s flexibility as a green light for Turkish adventurism.

The agenda Erdogan brings to Washington appears clear:

Arms and Trade – Cement Boeing and F-16 deals, reopen F-35 participation, and deepen economic ties.

Palestinian Issue – Capitalize on recent recognitions of Palestinian statehood to amplify Turkey’s role as a champion of the Palestinian cause.

Rehabilitation with Washington – Reframe Turkey as an indispensable NATO ally at a time when its ties with Russia and Iran have raised eyebrows.

Regional Prestige – Demonstrate to domestic and international audiences that Ankara remains a power broker at the highest levels of U.S. diplomacy.

For Israel, Erdogan’s meeting with Trump carries high stakes. Will Ankara use its seat at the White House table to press for U.S. concessions on Gaza or greater pressure on Jerusalem? Or will the talks remain confined to defense sales and economic matters?

The Jerusalem Post report stressed that any U.S.-Turkey rapprochement must be viewed through the lens of Ankara’s past behavior. Erdogan’s ideological affinity for Hamas, coupled with Turkey’s history of turning U.S. support into regional aggression, makes this more than a routine bilateral visit.

Trump, who has consistently favored transactional diplomacy, may see value in rekindling ties with Erdogan. A major Boeing deal would boost American industry, while arms sales could be framed as a win for U.S. jobs and NATO cohesion.

Yet, as The Jerusalem Post report cautioned, Trump will also need to weigh Israel’s security concerns. With Netanyahu’s government already bristling at international recognition of Palestinian statehood, any hint of U.S. pressure—possibly at Erdogan’s urging—could open a rift between Washington and Jerusalem.

Erdogan’s upcoming visit to the White House will not occur in a vacuum. It arrives at a moment when Turkey is attempting to reposition itself on the global stage, leveraging its NATO membership, regional influence, and transactional diplomacy to reclaim lost ground.

For Trump, the meeting presents both opportunity and risk. It is a chance to secure lucrative deals and reassert U.S. sway over a wayward ally. But it is also a moment fraught with peril, given Erdogan’s track record of turning U.S. accommodation into aggressive campaigns against Kurds, Greeks, Armenians, and—most troubling from Israel’s perspective—overt support for Hamas.

As The Jerusalem Post report observed, the true test of this meeting will be whether Washington chooses to rein in Erdogan’s ambitions or empower them once again.

One thing is certain: when Erdogan and Trump sit down in the Oval Office on September 25, the repercussions will extend far beyond Ankara and Washington. They will ripple across the Middle East, from Gaza to Jerusalem, and determine whether Turkey’s next chapter is one of restraint or renewed confrontation.