By: Russ Spencer

In a political upset that has sent shockwaves through the city’s Democratic establishment, Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has vaulted ahead of former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the latest ranked-choice poll for New York City mayor — a development that underscores the growing momentum of the progressive left and the fragility of Cuomo’s once-dominant standing.

According to a new Emerson College Polling/Pix 11/The Hill survey, Mamdani — a self-identified Democratic Socialist representing Queens — is now leading Cuomo in the simulated final round of ranked-choice voting by a narrow but critical margin: 51.8% to 48.2%. As The New York Post reported on Monday, this marks a dramatic reversal from last month’s poll, where Cuomo bested Mamdani by eight points in the tenth round of ranked-choice tabulations.

The poll, conducted between June 18 and June 20 among 729 likely Democratic voters, reveals a tightening race that reflects the shifting political dynamics in the city. The ranked-choice voting format, adopted in 2021, allows voters to rank up to five candidates. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, the lowest-polling contenders are eliminated and their votes redistributed, round by round, until a majority winner emerges.

In the initial round of this latest poll, Cuomo still leads — but just barely — garnering 35% support to Mamdani’s 32%. City Comptroller Brad Lander follows at 13%, while City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams draws 8%. Former Comptroller Scott Stringer captures 3%, and the remaining 5% is split among a cluster of lower-tier candidates, with 4% still undecided.

Yet once the ranked-choice mechanism is simulated, the race undergoes a startling transformation. As candidates are eliminated, their supporters overwhelmingly gravitate toward Mamdani. The most pivotal moment comes in the seventh round, when Lander — long trailing in third place — is knocked out with 20% of the vote. Crucially, the majority of his backers shift their allegiance to Mamdani, catapulting him over Cuomo in the eighth round.

The Emerson analysis, cited by The New York Post, noted that Mamdani has seen a meteoric rise in support over the past five months, growing from a mere 1% in January to 32% in June. “In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo’s 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.

The alliance between Mamdani and Lander may be more than just arithmetic. Lander has explicitly cross-endorsed Mamdani as his second choice, urging his supporters to rank the progressive Queens lawmaker should he himself fall short — a move echoed by the influential Working Families Party, which has implored left-leaning voters to exclude Cuomo from their ballots altogether.

As The New York Post report pointed out, this late-stage alliance has reshaped the contours of the race. Cuomo, who once appeared untouchable with his deep name recognition and traditional Democratic base, now finds himself in unfamiliar territory — fighting to retain his lead among a fractured electorate.

Early voting patterns are only compounding his challenge. Among those who have already cast ballots, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 10 points — 41% to 31%. Conversely, Cuomo performs better among voters who plan to vote on Primary Day, leading Mamdani 36% to 31%, suggesting that Mamdani’s ground game and digital mobilization strategy have proven more effective in the early turnout phase.

The demographic breakdown is revealing. Mamdani commands the younger vote, winning by a 2-to-1 margin among Democrats under 50. Cuomo, however, dominates among older voters, leading by 26 points among those over 60. Racially, the fault lines are pronounced: Black and Hispanic voters heavily favor Cuomo, 62%-38% and 60%-40%, respectively. Mamdani, meanwhile, enjoys overwhelming support from white voters (61%-39%) and especially from Asian voters (a staggering 79%-21%).

The former governor maintains a significant edge among working-class voters without a four-year college degree (61%-39%), but Mamdani holds the inverse advantage among college-educated Democrats (62%-38%). Gender, too, reveals an electorate divided: men prefer Mamdani (56%-44%), while women lean toward Cuomo (52%-48%).

With the poll’s margin of error at ±3.6 percentage points, The New York Post report observed that the race remains highly volatile — a statistical dead heat with dramatic potential for disruption in the closing hours before the Tuesday vote.

Still, the sheer momentum behind Mamdani’s surge cannot be ignored. His rise has been fueled by relentless grassroots organizing, strong digital outreach, and an unapologetically progressive platform focused on housing affordability, climate justice, and economic equity — messages that have clearly resonated with the city’s younger, more diverse, and more ideologically left electorate.

Cuomo, meanwhile, has pitched his campaign as a return to seasoned, steady governance, leveraging his years in Albany to make the case for pragmatic leadership. But as The New York Post report noted, his campaign may have misjudged the potency of the city’s anti-establishment undercurrent — and the appeal of a fresh, insurgent voice in a time of political cynicism.

Analysts say Cuomo’s base of older and moderate voters remains formidable. Yet in a ranked-choice election, enthusiasm and breadth of second-choice support often prove more decisive than raw name recognition. Mamdani has not only built momentum, he has become the consensus progressive alternative — a mantle that could be determinative in the final round.

Looking back at Emerson’s polling history offers a cautionary tale: their final 2021 mayoral poll had Eric Adams leading Kathryn Garcia 52% to 48% — a prediction that underestimated Garcia’s strength and overestimated the spread. Adams ultimately won by less than a single percentage point. The final margin this time may be even slimmer.

As voters prepare to cast their final ballots, one thing is clear: New York City is on the verge of choosing not only its next mayor but also the political identity it wishes to embrace. Whether it will be a restoration of Cuomo’s centrist pragmatism or a bold leap into Mamdani’s progressive vision remains to be seen.