By: Fern Sidman

In a political season already marked by volatility and insurgent energies, the Republican primary contest in New York’s 21st Congressional District has produced a result that few party operatives can afford to ignore. Fresh polling commissioned by the campaign of Anthony Constantino and conducted by GRAY House, the respected firm long associated with Congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s electoral efforts, reveals a commanding advantage for the political newcomer over his lone primary challenger. The numbers, striking in their clarity, suggest that the race has entered a decisive phase well before most observers anticipated, and that the Republican electorate in the North Country may be preparing to deliver an emphatic verdict in favor of an unconventional standard-bearer.

Stefanik’s Pollster Confirms Constantino’s Massive NY-21 Lead

EDINBURG, NY, Feb. 16 — Constantino for Congress commissioned GRAY House, Congresswoman Stefanik’s pollster, to evaluate the NY-21 Republican race. Results show a 27-point lead for Constantino. 43% of likely… pic.twitter.com/d0Pu3LU7o1

— Anthony Constantino (@constantino) February 16, 2026

According to the survey, 43 percent of likely Republican primary voters in NY-21 indicate that they would cast their ballots for Constantino, compared with just 16 percent for his opponent, with 41 percent remaining undecided. While the sizable bloc of undecided voters leaves room for movement, the sheer magnitude of Constantino’s lead—twenty-seven points—has lent his candidacy an aura of inevitability that is already reshaping strategic calculations within the party. For a first-time candidate without prior elected experience, the result is a remarkable testament to the potency of an outsider message in a district long accustomed to political continuity.

The polling data offers a revealing portrait of the mood within the district’s Republican electorate. Fully 70 percent of respondents expressed a preference for a political outsider, a sentiment that speaks to a broader disenchantment with traditional party hierarchies and career politicians.

In this climate of skepticism toward institutional politics, Constantino’s biography has become a central asset. As the founder and chief executive of Sticker Mule, a globally recognized manufacturing and e-commerce enterprise headquartered in New York and employing more than 1,000 workers, he presents himself as a figure forged in the crucible of private enterprise rather than the corridors of public office. For many voters, that distinction carries a powerful symbolic resonance: it suggests managerial competence, economic realism, and an unfiltered willingness to challenge entrenched interests.

https://t.co/zVFs5O1YcQ

— Anthony Constantino (@constantino) February 15, 2026

Constantino’s campaign has amplified this outsider identity not only through rhetoric but through its financial architecture. In an era when candidates routinely decry the influence of special interests while relying heavily on donor networks, Constantino has chosen a path of conspicuous independence. He is entirely self-funding his campaign and has publicly committed to accepting no donations. The scale of that personal investment is extraordinary. He injected $2.6 million into a special election campaign that ultimately did not materialize, then followed with a further $5 million deposit to launch his 2026 cycle bid. After a substantial television advertising buy, he still retains $4.5 million in cash on hand, a war chest that places him among the most financially formidable Republican congressional candidates in the country, trailing only the party’s top congressional leadership.

This financial autonomy has enabled Constantino to craft a campaign that is both omnipresent and unencumbered by the usual constraints of fundraising calendars. Saturation advertising has boosted his name recognition to levels that eclipse not only his primary opponent but, remarkably, even exceed those of prominent statewide figures such as gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman. In a sprawling rural district where media markets overlap and attention is fragmented, the ability to maintain a sustained presence across television and digital platforms confers a formidable advantage.

The polling also reveals a stark disparity in favorability. Constantino enjoys a net favorability rating of plus 35 among likely Republican primary voters, compared with plus 13 for his opponent. The nearly three-to-one ratio underscores the depth of his appeal and suggests that his campaign has succeeded in converting name recognition into positive sentiment. This is no small feat in a political environment often characterized by voter cynicism. The data implies that Constantino is not merely known; he is liked, trusted, and perceived as an authentic representative of the district’s values and frustrations.

🔥🚨BREAKING: Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino announced that he is giving millions of dollars to Americans across the country with Greatness. Anthony revealed that he will be giving 5-10% of Sticker Mule’s marketing budget in cash to the American people in hopes to motivate… pic.twitter.com/lzRuInxyHw

— Dom Lucre | Breaker of Narratives (@dom_lucre) February 15, 2026

Campaign manager Lenny Roudik has been quick to frame the poll as an inflection point for party strategy. His assertion that the Republican Party would be wise to consolidate behind Constantino sooner rather than later reflects a pragmatic calculation. Protracted primary battles can drain resources, generate intraparty acrimony, and leave nominees weakened for the general election. In a district where general election dynamics are likely to be fiercely contested, the opportunity to pivot early toward a unified campaign message could prove invaluable. Roudik’s comments also hint at a broader ambition: to transform Constantino’s insurgent momentum into a disciplined general election operation capable of mobilizing swing voters and independents.

Beyond the polling and campaign mechanics, Constantino’s personal narrative has added an unusual dimension to his political persona. His endorsement of President Trump, dramatized by the installation of a “Vote for Trump” sign atop the tallest building at his factory complex, was a conspicuous declaration of ideological alignment with the populist currents animating much of the Republican base. By communicating that endorsement to Sticker Mule’s millions of customers, Constantino signaled a willingness to integrate political conviction into his corporate identity, a move that has drawn both praise and controversy. For his supporters, it exemplifies courage and transparency; for critics, it raises questions about the politicization of commerce. Yet in the current Republican primary climate, such unabashed signaling appears to have reinforced rather than undermined his standing.

There is also the matter of Constantino’s personal flair, a quality rarely central to electoral success yet undeniably potent in an era of performative politics. His decision to turn professional boxing for his 40th birthday, amassing a 2–1 record with two knockouts, has been woven into his campaign narrative as evidence of resilience, discipline, and a willingness to test himself beyond conventional comfort zones. While the relevance of such exploits to legislative competence is debatable, the symbolism is unmistakable. In a political culture that prizes displays of fortitude and confrontation, the image of a candidate who has literally stepped into the ring resonates with voters hungry for combative advocacy.

The broader implications of Constantino’s surge extend beyond the confines of NY-21. His ascent reflects a growing impatience within the Republican electorate for candidates who promise to disrupt rather than steward existing political arrangements. The preference for outsiders captured in the polling echoes national trends, yet it acquires particular intensity in districts that feel economically marginalized or culturally overlooked. The North Country, with its mix of industrial legacies and rural communities, has long harbored a sense of distance from the centers of political power. Constantino’s message, anchored in entrepreneurial success and personal self-reliance, speaks to that sentiment with an immediacy that more conventional candidates struggle to replicate.

Watch my well-received talk to the Saratoga Republican Committee that led many Party Insiders to abandon my dishonest NY21 opponent! pic.twitter.com/faRgdeBjQd

— Anthony Constantino (@constantino) February 13, 2026

At the same time, the substantial proportion of undecided voters suggests that the race is not entirely foreclosed. Forty-one percent of likely Republican primary voters have yet to commit, a reminder that early momentum, however dramatic, must be sustained through disciplined outreach and substantive engagement with local concerns. The challenge for Constantino will be to convert his financial and reputational advantages into durable organizational strength on the ground, ensuring that his campaign infrastructure matches the scale of his ambitions.

As the primary contest unfolds, party leaders will be forced to confront a strategic dilemma. To embrace Constantino’s candidacy is to align with a model of politics that privileges personal wealth and outsider status as guarantors of independence. To resist it risks alienating a base that has signaled, with unusual clarity, its desire for precisely such a figure. The poll conducted by Stefanik’s own trusted firm lends the findings additional credibility, making it more difficult for skeptics to dismiss Constantino’s lead as an artifact of methodological bias or campaign spin.

In the end, the NY-21 race may come to be remembered as a case study in the evolving dynamics of Republican primaries in the post-populist era. Anthony Constantino’s commanding early lead, fueled by self-financed visibility, outsider appeal, and a carefully cultivated public persona, underscores the extent to which political capital is now generated as much through narrative as through institutional endorsement. Whether this model will translate into general election success remains an open question. What is already clear, however, is that the contours of the contest have shifted decisively. In the North Country, the outsider is no longer knocking at the door of the political establishment; he is, by the numbers, standing squarely at its threshold.