Stefanik Edges Out Hochul in Shocking 2026 Poll as Voters Sour on Albany and the Leftward Lurch of New York Politics

By: Fern Sidman

New York’s political establishment was jolted this week after a Manhattan Institute poll suggested that Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik could unseat Governor Kathy Hochul in 2026 — a result that, if realized, would upend nearly two decades of Democratic dominance in Albany. The survey, reported by The New York Post on Tuesday, shows Stefanik narrowly edging out the incumbent governor by a single percentage point in a hypothetical matchup that many analysts see as an early referendum on Hochul’s leadership and the state’s ideological drift.

According to the information provided in The New York Post report, the poll found Stefanik with 43% support statewide, compared with 42% for Hochul, while 9% said they would vote for “someone else” and 7% remained undecided. Though technically a statistical tie given the poll’s three-point margin of error, the finding underscores a deeper current of voter frustration—particularly in suburban and upstate communities where Stefanik’s populist, pro-Trump message is resonating.

The results mark the most competitive Republican showing in a statewide poll since 2022, when then-GOP nominee Lee Zeldin came within six points of Hochul in an election that many observers viewed as a warning shot. Two years later, that warning may have ripened into a full-fledged challenge to Democratic rule.

As The New York Post has reported repeatedly in recent months, Governor Hochul’s approval ratings have languished amid rising crime, economic stagnation, and growing discontent over her handling of New York City’s spiraling migrant crisis. Her decision to endorse socialist Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, the controversial Democratic nominee for mayor, appears to have compounded those vulnerabilities, alienating moderate Democrats and independents across the state.

Hochul’s public embrace of Mamdani—a self-described democratic socialist who has called for disbanding the NYPD’s Strategic Response Group and voiced fierce criticism of Israel—has provoked backlash from business leaders, law enforcement unions, and Jewish organizations. “Hochul’s alliance with Mamdani is a political gift to Stefanik,” one longtime Albany strategist told The New York Post, noting that it “reinforces the perception that the governor is captive to the far-left.”

The Manhattan Institute survey found Hochul losing ground among independents, a bloc that will likely determine the outcome in 2026. Among that key demographic, Stefanik led 46% to 33%, according to the report in The New York Post, and by even larger margins on Long Island—54% to 37%—where concerns over taxes, crime, and education remain paramount. Hochul fared slightly better in the Hudson Valley, leading 45% to 36%, but those gains were insufficient to offset her broader weakness statewide.

The poll’s findings are a significant validation for Rep. Elise Stefanik, who has transformed herself from an upstate policy wonk into one of the Republican Party’s most visible national figures. Currently serving as chair of the House Republican Conference, Stefanik has emerged as a leading ally of President Trump and a fierce critic of liberal governance in New York and Washington alike.

According to the information contained in The New York Post report, Stefanik plans to formally announce her gubernatorial bid after the November 4 mayoral election, when attention shifts from the city’s socialist surge to the statewide landscape. Her advisers believe the timing will position her as the natural counterweight to both Hochul’s establishment liberalism and Mamdani’s far-left insurgency.

“New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new, commonsense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed one-party rule,” Stefanik’s spokesperson Bernadette Breslin told The New York Post, adding that the governor “lives up to her title as the Worst Governor in America when she chose to bend the knee to the Defund-the-Police, tax-hiking, antisemitic socialist Zohran Mamdani.”

State GOP Chairman Ed Cox struck a similar tone, telling The New York Post that “under Kathy Hochul and one-party Democrat rule, New York has become the most taxed, most regulated, least free state in America.” Cox predicted that “next year, New Yorkers will demand change—and Elise Stefanik will deliver it.”

Hochul’s campaign was quick to dismiss the poll as biased, pointing to its sponsor’s conservative leanings. “You’ve got to hand it to Sellout Stefanik,” campaign spokeswoman Sarafina Chitka told The New York Post. “When her own polls don’t reflect reality, she can count on Trump and his megadonors—like Betsy DeVos and Paul Singer—to repeat her lies.”

Still, behind closed doors, Democratic insiders privately admit that the numbers are troubling. One Albany operative quoted by The New York Post acknowledged that while the Manhattan Institute poll’s methodology “leans conservative,” its underlying message—that Hochul’s coalition is fractured—“tracks with what we’re seeing in our internal data.”

Indeed, Hochul’s struggles have been documented across multiple surveys. A Siena College poll in September showed her leading Stefanik by 25 points, down from 14 points in August—a sharp erosion in just one month. Meanwhile, an internal Stefanik campaign poll released earlier this month showed the congresswoman trailing by only five points.

Such volatility calls attention to the fluidity of New York’s post-pandemic political landscape, where issues like public safety, education, and cost of living now outweigh traditional party loyalty. “It’s not impossible for a Republican to win,” one veteran pollster told The New York Post. “If Hochul keeps losing independents and moderates, she’s in real trouble.”

Not all experts are convinced by the Manhattan Institute’s findings. Some Democratic strategists have questioned the weighting of the data, particularly one eyebrow-raising result suggesting that 73% of Democrats on Long Island identified as “democratic socialists.”

“I don’t know how or where they screwed this up, but they screwed this up,” Democratic pollster Evan Roth-Smith of Slingshot Strategies told The New York Post. “The data isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.”

Yet even Roth-Smith conceded that “the overall trend is clear—Hochul’s numbers are stagnant, and the energy is with the Republicans.” Other analysts interviewed by The New York Post argued that the poll’s significance lies less in its exact margins and more in the symbolic milestone it represents: the first credible evidence that a Republican could conceivably capture the governor’s mansion since George Pataki’s third term ended in 2006.

Hochul’s difficulties stem from both substance and symbolism. As The New York Post has chronicled, her administration has been beset by controversy—from the state’s controversial congestion pricing plan to lingering fallout over New York’s migrant crisis, which has strained city budgets and tested public patience.

Her efforts to rebrand herself as a moderate, business-friendly Democrat have been repeatedly undercut by her political alliances. Her endorsement of Zohran Mamdani, a lawmaker who embodies the Democratic Socialists of America’s growing influence in city politics, has made her an easy target for Republican critics and alienated suburban moderates who already view Albany as too far left.

“She’s trapped between the progressives who think she’s not radical enough and the centrists who think she’s lost her way,” one former Cuomo administration aide told The New York Post. “That’s a miserable place to be heading into an election year.”

For Stefanik, the 2026 race could become a test of how much Trump’s brand of populism can still resonate in a deep-blue state. As The New York Post report observed, her transformation from a pragmatic upstate Republican to a full-fledged MAGA ally has made her a lightning rod in national politics—but it has also given her a powerful fundraising base and a loyal following among grassroots conservatives.

In recent months, Stefanik has sharpened her message on crime, taxes, and antisemitism, issues that resonate across ideological lines. Her highly publicized congressional confrontations with Ivy League presidents over campus antisemitism earned her national recognition and bolstered her credentials among Jewish voters—an increasingly influential constituency in suburban New York politics.

“She’s disciplined, she’s media-savvy, and she knows how to turn outrage into organization,” one Republican strategist told The New York Post. “That’s a dangerous combination for a complacent incumbent.”

With two years until Election Day, both campaigns are bracing for a bruising contest that will likely hinge on independent voters, economic confidence, and the public’s tolerance for progressive governance.

The race, as framed by The New York Post, pits two sharply contrasting visions of New York’s future: Hochul’s promise of continuity versus Stefanik’s call for disruption. For many voters, the choice may ultimately come down to exhaustion—whether with the governor’s perceived ineffectiveness or with partisan gridlock in Albany.

If the Manhattan Institute’s polling is any indication, Stefanik’s insurgent message of accountability and renewal is beginning to find traction. “New Yorkers are fed up,” she told The New York Post in a statement following the poll’s release. “They’re ready to take their state back.”

Whether that readiness will translate into the first Republican victory in two decades remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: the once-unimaginable prospect of Governor Elise Stefanik no longer seems unthinkable.