Edited by: TJVNews.com

Recent polling from the Siena Research Institute, which was reported on by VIN News on Tuesday, shows Zohran Mamdani firmly in control of the New York City mayoral contest. He now leads former Governor Andrew Cuomo by 19 points—44% to 25%—with Republican Curtis Sliwa trailing at 12% and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams languishing at just 7%. These numbers represent the most commanding advantage seen yet in this high-stakes race.

According to the information provided in the VIN News report, Mamdani’s rise didn’t happen overnight. Siena’s earlier polls reflect a dynamic shift in voter sentiment:

March–April: Siena polls conducted in April show Cuomo with a commanding lead—hovering around 34%—while Mamdani sat far behind in single digits, around 6%. The VIN News report noted that this early lead for Cuomo matched a broader perception of the former governor’s name recognition advantage among city Democrats.

May–June: In the weeks leading to the Democratic primary, Siena polling revealed Mamdani beginning to close the gap. He surged into contention, prompting many observers to flag a turning tide, particularly after grassroots messaging resonated. By the time of the primary, Mamdani overtook Cuomo decisively under ranked-choice voting—finally securing 56.4% to Cuomo’s 43.6% in the final round.

July: A Zenith Research/Public Progress poll cited by VIN News showed Mamdani at approximately 50%, Cuomo at 22%, further cementing his lead in the head-to-head matchup. This direction was consistent despite Cuomo’s campaign attempts to shake the narrative.

The latest Siena numbers confirm that Mamdani’s lead has widened further to 19 points. Importantly, his strength is pronounced among core Democratic voters—53% to Cuomo’s 32%—and especially among younger voters, where Mamdani dominates. A demographic shift is noticeable, with Cuomo holding sway only with voters aged 55 and up.

The trend is evident not just in vote intention but also in public favorability.

Mamdani holds a favorable rating of 46% vs. 32% unfavorable in the city—a robust net positive. However, statewide he remains underwater, at 28% favorable vs. 37% unfavorable.

Cuomo, conversely, sees crushing negativity—54% unfavorability in NYC, rising to 61% statewide. Among statewide Democrats, his favorability has plunged from 51%-39% in March to 36%-56%.

Adams fares poorly across the board, while Sliwa experiences a modest favorability, though not enough to break through in polling.

This pattern, VIN News observed, underlines shifting voter sentiment from Cuomo’s established name toward Mamdani’s promising outsider appeal—and underscores the fragility of Cuomo’s revival attempt.

The trajectory clearly favors Mamdani. From trailing in the early spring to decisively winning the primary and now leading by nearly 20 points, his ascent signals a powerful consolidation of Democratic support. Meanwhile, Cuomo’s campaign appears to be unraveling under voter criticism and negative perception, particularly among younger and middle-aged voters.

Adams remains sidelined despite incumbency, and Sliwa’s only stronghold remains among city Republicans. VIN News analysts conclude that Mamdani’s message, youth appeal, and progressive platform have resonated in a way Cuomo’s return has not.

With the latest Siena data now released, the VIN News report underscored that the momentum firmly lies with Mamdani heading into November. His surge from single digits to a commanding lead reflects more than just polling volatility—it signals a shift in the political tenor of New York City. Whether this trajectory sustains into election day remains to be seen, but for now, all signs point to Zohran Mamdani as the frontrunner in the mayoral race.