By: Fern Sidman

According to new polling data reported by The New York Post, Rep. Elise Stefanik of Upstate New York has emerged as the clear front-runner among Republicans for a potential 2026 gubernatorial run, offering the GOP its strongest chance yet to unseat Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul.

The poll, conducted by Republican pollster Landon Wall in collaboration with GrayHouse and detailed extensively by The New York Post, shows Stefanik commanding 44% support among likely Republican primary voters. This places her far ahead of her nearest potential rivals — lower Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler, who garnered 7%, and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, who pulled in just 5%. Another 44% of respondents indicated they were still undecided.

The New York Post report noted that Stefanik, 40, who has represented the sprawling 21st Congressional District since her election in 2014, enjoys a significant advantage in name recognition and favorability. Among Republicans, Stefanik holds a net favorable rating of +47 points, with 56% viewing her positively and only 9% viewing her unfavorably.

By contrast, The New York Post reported that Lawler, while maintaining a modest favorable rating of 33%, remains largely unknown to two-thirds of Republican voters surveyed. Blakeman is even less well-known statewide, as he focuses on his own re-election bid this fall in Nassau County.

A key factor in Stefanik’s strength is her continued close relationship with former President Donald Trump. As The New York Post report highlighted, Trump had previously considered nominating Stefanik to serve as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Although he ultimately rescinded the idea — concerned that her departure could endanger the GOP’s razor-thin House majority — he continues to praise Stefanik effusively. Recently, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform, calling her “GREAT!!!”

With Trump’s endorsement power still highly influential among Republican voters, Stefanik’s strong standing in the GOP primary field is no surprise.

Pollster Landon Wall told The New York Post, “Should Congresswoman Elise Stefanik choose to enter the race for governor, she would begin the Republican primary in a dominant position and offer the GOP its strongest opportunity to defeat Governor Kathy Hochul in the 2026 general election.”

While New York is traditionally considered a solidly Democratic state, Governor Hochul’s political footing appears far from secure. In a broader survey of 600 registered voters — also conducted by Wall — Hochul leads Stefanik by only six points, 46% to 40%, in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.

Hochul’s margins are similarly slim against other potential Republican challengers, leading Lawler 45% to 38%, and Blakeman 44% to 36%. These relatively narrow gaps are significant, especially when compared to Hochul’s 2022 victory over then-GOP nominee Lee Zeldin, who lost by six points, 53% to 47%.

Perhaps most troubling for Hochul, is her failure to break the 47% mark in any matchup tested — a dangerous sign for any incumbent, particularly in a Democratic stronghold like New York. Pollster Wall warned, “Across all tested matchups, Hochul fails to reach 47% support—a warning sign for an incumbent in a blue state.”

The poll also found that a striking 61% of voters indicated a preference to elect “someone new” rather than re-elect Hochul. These findings suggest a significant reservoir of dissatisfaction among the electorate.

Adding to Hochul’s woes, the survey reported that her net job approval rating is underwater: just 36% of respondents approve of her performance, while a decisive 55% disapprove.