By: Ariella Haviv

In the mercurial early stages of any congressional race, polling is often dismissed as a parlor trick—too preliminary, too speculative, too easily skewed by low awareness or transient moods. Yet now and again a snapshot arrives that is less a hint than a jolt, a tremor signaling that the tectonic plates of a campaign have already shifted. Such is the case in New York’s 21st Congressional District, where Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino has burst onto the Republican primary landscape with a commanding early lead that has startled even seasoned political operatives.

According to a poll conducted by Constantino’s campaign, 57 percent of 1,017 respondents indicated support for the outspoken entrepreneur in a three-way hypothetical primary. Robert Smullen, a long-time conservative activist, trailed distantly with 23.3 percent, while Marc Molinaro—former gubernatorial nominee and one-time congressman for neighboring NY-19—lagged further behind at 19.7 percent, despite not having formally declared his candidacy.

The numbers alone are arresting. But it is the underlying sentiment—measured not merely in percentages but in emotional intensity—that may prove decisive in the months ahead.

Anthony Constantino is no stranger to publicity. As the CEO of Sticker Mule, a booming online custom printing company headquartered in Upstate New York, he has built a national profile not only through business acumen but also through unapologetically combative political commentary. Over the past year, he has transformed his brand into a political megaphone, launching headline-grabbing campaigns, erecting provocative billboards, and flooding social media with ideological provocations aimed squarely at the Republican grassroots.

This fusion of entrepreneurial bravado and populist rhetoric has, according to the poll, resonated deeply with voters in NY-21, a sprawling, largely rural district stretching across the Adirondacks and North Country. Once a swing seat, the district has in recent cycles tilted reliably Republican, making the GOP primary the true battlefield.

“We included Molinaro in the poll because there are whispers of his interest in the seat,” said Lenny Roudik, Constantino’s campaign manager, explaining why a non-candidate was included in the survey. The campaign wanted to test not merely the declared field, but the gravitational pull of potential entrants—an approach as audacious as it is revealing.

What makes this poll especially intriguing is not only who leads, but how their supporters feel. After asking respondents to explain in their own words why they favored a particular candidate, the campaign subjected the written responses to a ChatGPT-powered qualitative analysis—a novel tactic in congressional politics.

The results were telling. Supporters of Anthony Constantino were described as “highly enthusiastic,” with a pattern of language suggesting an “affirmative choice”—voters were not simply settling for the least objectionable option; they were actively, emotionally committing to him. Their tone was assertive, confident, even evangelical. These were not voters flirting with a candidate; they were rallying behind a cause.

“The poll results confirm I will be very difficult to beat,” Constantino declared after reviewing the data. “Enthusiasm is crucial in a primary and also in a midterm election. Survey responses indicate I can steal supporters from my rivals, but those who support me will not change their mind easily.”