(TJV NEWS) Microsoft’s top artificial intelligence executive is warning that sweeping disruption to white-collar jobs may arrive far sooner than many corporate and government leaders expect.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman said advances in artificial intelligence are on track to match — and potentially exceed — human performance across most professional tasks within the next year or two. Suleyman made the remarks when discussing the timeline for artificial general intelligence (AGI), a term used to describe AI systems capable of performing tasks at or above human level across a wide range of domains.

“I think we’re going to have a human-level performance on most, if not all, professional tasks,” Suleyman told the Financial Times. He specifically pointed to desk-based roles such as lawyers, accountants, project managers and marketing professionals, predicting that many of their routine responsibilities could be automated by AI systems within 12 to 18 months.

The comments add to growing concerns about how quickly automation could reshape the labor market, particularly in white-collar industries that until recently were considered relatively insulated from technological disruption.

While the scale of the impact remains uncertain, new data suggest that AI-related job cuts are already being cited with increasing frequency. According to a recent report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, AI was blamed for 7,624 layoffs in January alone — accounting for 7% of all job cuts announced that month. The firm said AI has been linked to 54,836 planned job reductions so far in 2025.

Since Challenger began tracking AI-related layoffs in 2023, the technology has been cited in 79,449 announced cuts, representing about 3% of total layoffs during that period.

Still, the outplacement firm cautioned that it is difficult to isolate AI’s precise impact. “It’s difficult to say how big an impact AI is having on layoffs specifically,” Challenger said, noting that while executives frequently highlight AI initiatives and investors appear to reward companies that emphasize automation, broader economic pressures are also contributing to workforce reductions.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on a striking development in Silicon Valley that underscores the tension between innovation and employment. The Bay Area startup Mercor has reportedly recruited tens of thousands of highly skilled contractors — including professionals in medicine, law, finance, engineering, writing and the arts — to help train advanced AI systems. These contractors, paid between $45 and $250 per hour, spend weeks or months reviewing and refining AI-generated outputs for companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic, according to the Journal. In effect, the report noted, many of these workers are helping to build the systems that could eventually automate their own roles.

Despite the rapid progress in AI, some sectors appear less vulnerable in the near term. Jobs that require physical presence and hands-on skills — including healthcare providers and tradespeople such as plumbers and welders — are widely viewed as more resistant to automation, at least until robotics technology becomes significantly more advanced.

Not everyone agrees that the economic impact will materialize as quickly as Suleyman predicts. Analysts at Morgan Stanley recently told clients that the measurable effects of AI on the broader economy may take years to fully emerge. “AI impacts may take longer to appear in economic data,” the bank wrote, suggesting that the first clear wave of disruption could arrive “later this decade and into the next.”

Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley’s Global Head of Thematic Research and Sustainability Research, said that although AI adoption may outpace previous technological revolutions, it remains “too early to see it in economic data, outside of business investment.”

For now, the debate continues between those forecasting near-term upheaval and those predicting a more gradual transformation. What is clear, however, is that AI’s rapid evolution is forcing companies, workers and policymakers alike to grapple with profound questions about the future of professional work.