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Israel’s Defense Commission Recommends $30B Military Spending Increase Amid Growing Security Threats
Edited by: Fern Sidman
Israel must significantly boost its military spending to address escalating security challenges and adapt to a new reality of potential prolonged conflicts, a government commission warned this week. According to a report that appeared on Tuesday at The Wall Street Journal, the commission, led by a former Israeli national security adviser, has called for an additional $30 billion in military funding over the next decade to strengthen Israel’s offensive capabilities.
The commission’s recommendations, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, represent a dramatic departure from Israel’s traditional reliance on deterrence. Prior to Hamas’s devastating attacks on October 7, 2023, Israel operated under the assumption that long periods of quiet could be achieved through robust deterrence strategies. However, these assumptions have been challenged by the war, prompting calls for a more proactive approach, including pre-emptive and preventive strikes.
“Preventing enemy buildup, in all its forms, is more important than extended quiet,” the commission’s report stated. It emphasized that Israel’s responses to threats must be “disproportionate” and sustained over time to ensure the country’s security.
The report recommends an immediate increase of $2.5 billion to Israel’s 2025 defense budget, raising it to $34 billion—nearly 7% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). This is a significant jump from the prewar defense budget, which accounted for about 5% of GDP. Even if the ongoing war ends in 2025, The Wall Street Journal report noted that Israel’s annual defense budget is expected to average $26 billion over the next decade, marking a 40% increase compared to prewar levels.
This financial shift underscores Israel’s growing recognition that it may remain on a war footing for the foreseeable future. After two decades of relative stability and growing regional ties, the country now faces sustained threats on multiple fronts.
Israel’s heightened focus on military preparedness is driven by an evolving security landscape. The Wall Street Journal highlighted that, despite significant military operations over the past year that decimated the top leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel has not fully neutralized either group. Both continue to pose threats, with backing from Iran, which has emerged as the central figure in a network of militias hostile to Israel and Western interests.
Calls for more direct action against Iran have gained momentum, raising the potential for wider regional conflict. According to the information provided in The Wall Street Journal report, this could also draw in the United States, which maintains close military and strategic ties with Israel. Compounding the issue is the instability on Israel’s northern border, where the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at the hands of Islamist rebel groups adds further uncertainty.
The recommendations of the commission, as detailed in The Wall Street Journal report, signal a fundamental shift in Israel’s defense doctrine. The emphasis on offensive capabilities reflects a belief that pre-emptive action is critical to preventing adversaries from gaining strength.
Israel’s evolving approach also highlights the broader regional implications of its security policy. As The Wall Street Journal report explained, the combination of heightened military spending and a focus on offensive operations is likely to influence not only Israel’s immediate neighbors but also the broader Middle East and Western alliances.
While the proposed military spending increase is seen as vital to Israel’s security, it also represents a significant economic challenge. According to the information contained in The Wall Street Journal report. allocating nearly 7% of GDP to defense could place additional strain on Israel’s economy. However, proponents argue that such investments are necessary to safeguard the nation’s future.
This financial commitment also reflects Israel’s readiness to engage in long-term conflicts, signaling to adversaries that it is prepared for sustained military operations.
While Iran remains Israel’s primary concern, the report warns that rebel-held Syria could evolve into a significant security threat. Although the Islamist rebel groups currently reshaping Syria’s leadership have avoided taking a clear position on Israel, their historical links to al Qaeda raise concerns. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, Israel fears the possibility of having such groups entrenched along its border.
The report also draws attention to Turkey’s increasing influence in Syria. Backing specific rebel factions, Turkey has positioned itself as a key player in the region. The report cautions that Turkey’s deepening involvement could effectively turn Syria into a Turkish proxy state. Such a development could lead to direct Israeli-Turkish confrontation, jeopardizing recent efforts to repair bilateral relations, which were largely abandoned following the outbreak of the war in Gaza.
In a bold departure from previous strategies, the report recommends allocating 70% of Israel’s defense resources toward offensive capabilities, leaving 30% for defensive measures. The Wall Street Journal report explained that this marks a significant shift for a country historically reliant on defensive strategies to maintain security.
To support this transition, Israel’s Defense Ministry announced contracts worth $275 million with domestic arms manufacturer Elbit. These deals focus on producing heavy bombs and raw materials for defense, underscoring a move toward greater self-reliance in military production. The ministry identified reducing dependency on imported arms as “a central lesson from the war,” The Wall Street Journal reported.
The report also addresses Israel’s pressing need for combat manpower. As Israel debates its 2025 budget, the Defense Ministry is advocating for increased mandatory and reserve service requirements for conscripted Israelis. However, the effort has drawn criticism for not including ultra-Orthodox Jewish youth, whose exemption from military service remains a contentious political issue.
The Wall Street Journal report highlighted that this debate has reignited broader discussions about equity in national service, as many Israelis question why some groups are exempt from contributing to the country’s defense during a time of heightened conflict.
Funding the proposed military enhancements remains a key challenge. The report does not identify clear sources for the additional spending, but The Wall Street Journal report noted that Israel is already grappling with economic pressures.
Tax increases have been implemented to cover war-related costs, and the government’s fiscal policies have stabilized the economy after a 6% contraction in the first quarter of the war. However, ballooning military spending has pushed government debt to 7.7% of GDP, raising concerns among Israeli economic officials about the sustainability of these expenditures.
The current trajectory contrasts with Israel’s previous efforts to reduce the share of military spending in its overall budget. Since the 1980s, Israel had steadily decreased its military expenditures as a percentage of the national budget, a trend that began following the economic strain of the 1973 war.
The proposed strategy, as outlined in The Wall Street Journal report, reflects Israel’s recognition of a dramatically altered security environment. Moving away from deterrence and defense toward a more offensive posture signals an acknowledgment of the evolving nature of threats in the region.
By prioritizing offensive capabilities, Israel’s objective is to preempt adversaries such as Iran, while simultaneously addressing the risks posed by a destabilized Syria and the growing influence of Turkey. However, the financial and political hurdles associated with this shift could present significant challenges in the years ahead.
The defense commission’s recommendations mark a pivotal moment for Israel’s military strategy. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, the call to prioritize offense, expand domestic arms production, and address manpower issues signals a recognition that the country’s security challenges are no longer limited to isolated threats.
