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Israel’s Strategy to Deter Hezbollah is Necessary and Effective

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Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah addresses the funeral of his No. 2, Fuad Shukr, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike, Aug. 1, 2024. Source: Screenshot.
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Israel’s Strategy to Deter Hezbollah is Necessary and Effective

Israel’s recent shift in military strategy toward Hezbollah is not only prudent but essential for maintaining stability in the region. After years of engaging in a tit-for-tat pattern of missile exchanges, Israel has now made it clear that the cost for Hezbollah’s provocations will be devastating. This approach is designed not just to respond to immediate threats but to send an unequivocal message to Hezbollah and its backers in Tehran: continuing to target Israel will have catastrophic consequences for its leadership, infrastructure, and ability to wage war.

Recent Israeli strikes, including the highly targeted operation in Beirut’s Dahiyeh, demonstrate that this new strategy is not simply rhetorical. The Times of Israel reports that the latest attack took out Ibrahim Aqil, commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force, along with 10 other senior commanders who were planning attacks on Israel’s northern border. Aqil, a notorious figure with a $7 million U.S. bounty on his head, was involved in the 1983 bombings that killed over 300 people at the U.S. Embassy and Marine barracks in Beirut. His death is a significant blow to Hezbollah’s military apparatus, which has long relied on his experience in orchestrating terror operations across the region, from Lebanon to Syria.

By targeting Hezbollah’s leadership and disrupting its command structure, Israel is aiming to prevent another catastrophic attack like the one Hamas launched on October 7. Hezbollah has openly declared its intention to execute “Operation Conquer the Galilee”—an invasion of northern Israel modeled after Hamas’s deadly incursion from Gaza. As President Biden has rightly committed to preventing another massacre of Israeli civilians, Israel’s preemptive strikes on Hezbollah’s leadership are the most effective means of ensuring that such an attack is thwarted before it can even begin.

 This is not just about deterring future aggression but fundamentally altering the calculus for Hezbollah. For years, Hezbollah has tested Israel’s defenses with periodic missile strikes, relying on a delicate balance of escalation and de-escalation to avoid all-out war while keeping the conflict simmering. That strategy no longer works. Israel has broken this familiar cycle, as evidenced by the elimination of Hezbollah’s military chief of staff Fuad Shukr in July and the recent sabotage of Hezbollah’s communication systems. Hezbollah is no longer dictating the terms of engagement; Israel is.

The implications for Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, cannot be overstated. As Israel dismantles Hezbollah’s military infrastructure piece by piece, Nasrallah must now contend with the realization that his strongholds in Beirut are no longer off-limits. The once-impenetrable bastions of Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon are vulnerable, and Nasrallah himself could be at risk. This is a game-changer for Hezbollah, which has long relied on its ability to strike Israel while assuming that its leadership could remain insulated from direct Israeli retaliation.

Moreover, Israel’s shift in strategy sends a clear signal to Iran, which has used Hezbollah as its proxy to destabilize the region. Tehran has invested heavily in Hezbollah’s military capabilities, using the group to advance its geopolitical agenda and wage a proxy war against Israel. By systematically degrading Hezbollah’s military leadership and infrastructure, Israel is not just fighting a local conflict but disrupting Iran’s broader regional ambitions. The recent Israeli attacks, including the sabotage of Hezbollah’s communications systems, show that Israel is willing to engage in proactive and sophisticated operations to undermine Tehran’s influence.

While some may argue that this escalation increases the risk of a broader war, the reality is that Hezbollah must now carefully consider its next moves. On Friday alone, the group fired 200 rockets at Israel, but the consequences of further escalation could be disastrous for Hezbollah. Israel’s ability to strike deep into Hezbollah’s territory and its success in eliminating key commanders like Aqil have put the group on notice. If Nasrallah chooses to escalate, he does so knowing that Israel can, and will, target Hezbollah’s most sensitive assets—including Nasrallah himself.

In fact, the region is already on edge, and for good reason. Israel’s strikes have dealt significant blows to the Iran-backed terrorist axis, and Hezbollah is feeling the pressure. As The Times of Israel reports, these operations are not just reactive but part of a broader strategy to prevent Hezbollah from gaining a foothold for future attacks. By shifting from a defensive posture to a proactive one, Israel is setting new terms for engagement—ones that put Hezbollah on the back foot and force the group to weigh the risks of further aggression.

 Israel’s new approach is not only justified but necessary in the face of an evolving threat. The tragic events of October 7, orchestrated by Hamas, have underscored the dangers of underestimating the capabilities and intentions of terror groups like Hezbollah. Allowing Hezbollah to prepare for an invasion of northern Israel would be catastrophic, and Israel’s recent actions show that it has no intention of letting that happen.

The prospect of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah carries profound consequences for the region, particularly for Lebanon, which could face unprecedented destruction. However, the blame for such a potential conflict lies squarely on the shoulders of Hezbollah’s leadership, specifically Nasrallah, whose refusal to pursue diplomatic channels has led to a dangerous escalation. While the risks of war are significant for Israel, especially in terms of its northern citizens and potential political ramifications abroad, Israel has made clear for nearly a year that it does not want this fight.

The situation is further complicated by broader international political dynamics, particularly for U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, whose administration’s handling of the Middle East conflict may come under increased scrutiny, offering potential political leverage to the Trump campaign.

For 11 months, Israel has sought to avoid this war with Hezbollah. Even as the Iran-backed group launched 8,500 rockets, effectively depopulating northern Israel, the Israeli government limited its responses. As The Wall Street Journal notes, Israel exercised strategic restraint, hoping to prevent the conflict from spiraling into a full-blown regional war. Yet, diplomacy has stalled, and Nasrallah has foolishly tied Hezbollah’s provocations to Hamas’s agenda in Gaza, making Lebanon’s future a pawn in Yahya Sinwar’s dangerous game. This miscalculation by Nasrallah has left Lebanon’s fate hanging by a thread, held hostage to the whims of Hamas, whose leadership has made it clear they have no interest in diplomatic solutions.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has come to the realization that Sinwar, Hamas’s leader, has no desire for a deal. This recognition could not have come soon enough. As reported by The Wall Street Journal, even Washington now sees that Sinwar is more interested in prolonging violence than seeking a ceasefire that could bring some measure of stability to the region. Perhaps Nasrallah should reconsider his alliance with Hamas—an alliance that has now placed Lebanon on a collision course with disaster. If Hezbollah truly cares about Lebanon, Nasrallah must urgently re-evaluate his priorities and work toward de-escalation, rather than allowing his group to serve as an extension of Iran’s ambitions in the region.

For Israel, the stakes are equally high but clear. The country has no choice but to defend itself and return the 60,000 displaced citizens of its north to their homes. A full-scale war would undoubtedly come at a cost to Israel, both in terms of lives lost and potential political ramifications. However, Israel cannot allow Hezbollah’s attacks to continue unchallenged. Israel’s resolve, in this case, is unwavering—it will do whatever is necessary to ensure the security of its citizens. As The Wall Street Journal reports, Israel has made it clear from the start that it does not seek war, but if Hezbollah insists on continuing its provocations, Israel will respond with overwhelming force.

While the risks of war with Hezbollah are real for Israel, the greater burden falls on Lebanon. Nasrallah’s reckless leadership has tied Lebanon’s future to the violent ambitions of Hamas, and he has mortgaged his country’s stability for a conflict it cannot afford. Israel, having exercised restraint for nearly a year, can no longer stand by as its citizens are displaced and its northern border is bombarded. The Biden administration, having realized that diplomacy with Hamas is futile, must now support Israel’s right to defend itself, while also recognizing the political consequences this conflict could have for American leadership. The stakes are high, but Israel’s strategy is clear: it will protect its people and ensure that Hezbollah pays the price for its aggression.

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