Israel will restart its war against Hamas and it will wage that war decisively until total victory, predicted IDF Brig. Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi in an interview with JNS.

“The army is preparing. There is a new chief of staff and new plans,” Avivi, one-time commander of the Egyptian border from Gaza to Eilat, told JNS.

On Jan. 19, Israel and Hamas negotiated a three-phase ceasefire agreement. The first phase, a six-week ceasefire, included the release of dozens of hostages Hamas captured on Oct. 7, 2023. In exchange, Israel handed over hundreds of imprisoned terrorists.

Israel agreed to an extension on Sunday, adopting a framework proposed by U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff for a temporary ceasefire of another six weeks.

Half of the remaining hostages—there are 59, of whom Israel has declared 35 to be dead—would be set free on the first day of the framework. The remaining half would be released on the last day, on condition that agreement on a “permanent” ceasefire had been reached.

Hamas has rejected the U.S. framework. It demands stage two negotiations begin immediately.

On Sunday, JNS spoke with Avivi, who leads the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF), a group of some 34,000 IDF reserve officers focused on defense matters.

Q: What happens now that Hamas rejected an extension?

A: There is a lot of misinformation around the hostage deal. People are portraying it as Israel is going to stage two and the war will stop. That has no basis in reality.

We’re trying to get as many hostages back as possible, but eventually—a few weeks, a month—at some point, Israel will go on a full-scale attack. It’s not going to stop until Hamas is eradicated.

As for stage two, the sides are too far apart. Stage two for Israel means Hamas gives back all the hostages, lays down its weapons and gets out of Gaza. For Hamas, it means a completely different thing [Israeli forces evacuate Gaza].

So what option is left? You can extend stage one. If Hamas doesn’t agree to extend stage one, that’s it. It’s war.

Q: Why did the prime minister announce on Sunday that he’s stopping all entry of goods and supplies to Gaza?

A: They [the Gazans] have supplies for at least two months or more. Stopping the supply doesn’t change anything in the short term. But it will affect the next stage when we want to get them to a point where they don’t have enough supplies. Stopping supplies now brings them closer to that point.

Q: After some 16 months of fighting, why hasn’t Israel defeated Hamas yet?

A: Three reasons. First, there was a whole area in Gaza where we didn’t operate at all because of the hostages. Hamas was able to keep control of [Gazan] society, and also keep many of its forces in an area where the IDF didn’t operate.

Second, there was the issue of humanitarian aid. What keeps Hamas alive is humanitarian aid. And it hasn’t stopped for a moment since January of last year.

Third, for the first 10 months of the war, we fought with the understanding that we need to keep forces ready for a northern campaign.

We didn’t know what would happen in the north [with Hezbollah in Lebanon] or how large the war would be. This is why we carried out raids; why we didn’t conquer Gaza. We were operating in such a way as to be able to extract our forces from Gaza if necessary and send them north.

Q: So there was a lack of manpower to hold the territory?

A: Yes, because we needed to move the whole army north. If we tried to hold the area, all our forces would be tied down in Gaza.

Even so, our reserves were doing 200, 300 days of reserve duty. If we would have conquered Gaza, it would have been much more. It wasn’t realistic.

But now everything has changed. Now we can take the whole army. The government has approved a force of 400,000 soldiers. And we have only one place to focus on—Gaza.

Q: You haven’t mentioned the Trump administration. I assume this has had a major impact.

A: It’s a game changer. We have a U.S. administration that 100% supports eradicating Hamas.

Q: How would you characterize the Biden administration’s support?

A: I would say that until January of last year, the administration was supporting Israel. But from January [2024], there was a complete shift of policy, which dramatically damaged Israel’s ability to win the war.

They started buying into the propaganda about children being killed and so on. And they started pressuring Israel to stop the war. And from that moment the effectiveness of our war effort decreased dramatically.

The administration made it very hard for Israel to fight. They forced us to give Hamas humanitarian aid, especially gasoline.

Israel had to decrease the pressure and say, “No, it’s not a full-scale war. It’s an ongoing operation—stage B, stage C,” and so on, inventing different names. They also pressured us not to fight in Lebanon.

Q: Has Israel learned a lesson from this about the danger of being dependent on a foreign country for its war materiel?

A: There is now a clear understanding in Israel. Israel is investing huge amounts of money, building maximum independence. We are building more and more lines of production, getting more raw materials, parts. This is to become part of our national security doctrine.

Q: So the Biden administration’s actions served as a shock to the system?

A: Yes, the problem is that it happened already in 2014 with [President Barack] Obama—exactly the same thing, and the lesson wasn’t learned. This is one of the biggest failures of the defense establishment and the government. Now, you see a really huge shift, that, for some reason, didn’t happen in 2014.

Q: How long do you think it’ll take once Israel restarts the fighting to defeat Hamas?

A: Military pressure can be in steps. First step is an air campaign. We then say, “We’re giving you another chance to release hostages.” If they don’t get the message, then we’ll have to fight on the ground.

Ground fighting also can be done in two ways. Starting in a certain area or going full-scale. So you can try one or two stages before full-scale war to get them to release hostages. If that doesn’t work, then there will be no choice but to launch a full-scale attack that isn’t going to stop until total victory is reached.

Q: What do you think of U.S. President Donald Trump’s relocation plan?

A: There is no technical issue to relocating them [the Gazans]. It’s just a question of where. You need somebody who will want them. If the U.S. has agreements with certain countries that might want economic or other help, and for that they’re willing to assist, then it’s possible.

The fact that there is a vast majority in Gaza who want to relocate makes it realistic.

As much as you see devastation now in Gaza, think how Gaza will look after a full-scale attack by Israel. People won’t be able to stay there. Eventually there will be a need to relocate them.

Once Hamas is defeated and the way things will look in Gaza, the motivation will become much higher. Many in Hamas are already starting to contemplate leaving. It seems that they need to see the Israeli army amassing and attacking to understand that it’s game over.