Will Turkey Create a Sunni-Muslim Crescent in the Middle East?

For Israel, Turkish President Erdoğan might become the next existential threat as he envisions a neo-Ottoman empire.

By: Joseph Puder

Under normal circumstances, the downfall of Syria’s dictator Bashar Assad should have brought Ankara and Jerusalem closer given their mutual interest in the fall of Assad and the removal of the Iranian presence and influence in Syria.

Israel was, in fact, a catalyst that enabled the rebel groups, led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, to take Damascus. The Israel Defense Forces degraded Hezbollah and weakened the Islamic Republic of Iran. Without the support from Iran, Hezbollah and the Russians, who moved their forces out of Syria to fight in Ukraine, Assad’s army was incapable of fighting the rebels. Julani was able to march into Damascus virtually unopposed. Israel and Turkey, however, are currently in the middle of one of the most-bitter crises in their recent history.

As an Islamist and a leading figure in the Muslim Brotherhood movement, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is committed more to his Islamist ideology than to a realistic policy that seeks the betterment of Turkey’s population. Erdoğan’s abusive behavior toward Israel began at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in February 2009, when he lashed out at then-Israeli President Shimon Peres for launching the 2008-09 “Operation Cast Lead” against Hamas in Gaza. A year later, in 2010, Turkey dispatched a flotilla, led by the Mavi Marmara, to forcibly breach the Israeli blockade of Hamas in Gaza.

Israel’s current Swords of Iron war, launched in response to Hamas’s unprovoked infiltration and assault in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, engendered an extremely vicious and anti-Semitic reaction from Erdoğan. He has rallied the Muslim world to wage war on Israel, and Turkey has been active in denouncing Israel in international forums. Perhaps the one thing that no one expected to happen was Erdoğan’s decision to sever trade and commercial ties between the two countries, especially given Turkey’s economic troubles.

Erdoğan’s ambitions are rather grandiose. He believes himself to be something of a caliph and sultan of the believers, in other words, the leader of the Sunni-Muslim world. And, in Syria under Turkey’s control, he sees the beginning of the future neo-Ottoman Empire. Jerusalem views the rebels in Syria, including Julani’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as agents of Erdoğan, who funded them, armed them, and is using them as his proxies in Syria. It is also likely that Erdoğan might demand military bases in Syria.

For many in Israel, Turkey might become a “new Iran,” by forming a “Sunni Crescent” that would replace the “Shi’ite Crescent” led by Iran. Such an alliance might eventually include Jordan. Israel must prepare itself for such a scenario, a virtual border with Turkey in Syria.

At the same time, we cannot exaggerate the threat from Turkey.

Turkey is a member of NATO and, seemingly, part of the Western alliance. Erdoğan has a relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. In fact, Trump called Erdoğan “my friend.” Also, as far as we know, Turkey is not developing nuclear weapons. Hence, Turkey is not yet akin to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Turkey also differs from Iran, at least currently, in that there are no Turkish personnel in Syria. While Turkey under Erdoğan, is not a Western democracy, it is more open than Iran, though its leader is certainly an authoritarian figure. Finally, despite its provocative anti-Israel stance and antisemitic statements, Turkey still maintains political relations with Israel, although they are at a low level.

It is hard to imagine what kind of Erdoğan will emerge during the Trump presidency. Should he be allowed to open military bases in Syria, next to Israel, an explosive situation might erupt. Israel’s support for the Kurds and calls for Kurdish independence irk Erdoğan. Members of the Turkish Air Force, along with proxy forces of the National Syrian Army, have killed hundreds of Kurdish fighters and civilians. Erdoğan’s lavish support of Hamas, a fellow Muslim Brotherhood branch, will keep relations with Israel tense, if not more volatile.

Erdoğan seeks to secure a new term in office in 2028, which would be impossible under the current constitution. He needs the Kurdish representatives in the Turkish parliament to amend the constitution for him to run again and be re-elected. About 20% of Turkey’s population is Kurdish. Erdoğan is therefore seeking to improve his relationship with the Kurdish representatives in Turkey’s parliament. Similarly, while Erdoğan’s relations with Israel are currently in a deep freeze and, may stay that way as long as the war in Gaza continues, he is known to make sudden sharp political turns.

Erdoğan and his supporters’ statements about the “liberation of Palestine” have also caused great concern in Jerusalem. Conversely, Turks consider Israel’s attitude toward Turkey as a threat, including Israel’s talk of strengthening relations with Greece and Cyprus. Turks are afraid that Israel is building an international coalition against them. Yet even while political relations between the two countries dipped, the Turkish and Israeli militaries and the intelligent communities have kept cordial, if not close, relations. And certainly, Turkey’s businesses yearn for the return of Israeli tourists, which would bring back lost revenue.

The power dynamics between the two states have changed as well. Before the Abraham Accords in 2020, Israel was seen as fairly isolated and more dependent on Turkey. Israel’s cooperation with Arab Gulf states, coupled with its recent military successes against Iran and its proxies, have changed the dynamics. The return of Trump to the White House may also be a positive factor for Israel in its dealings with Turkey.

For now, however, Erdoğan and Turkey appear, to many Israelis, as a potential existential threat, and the talk of a Sunni Muslim Crescent has arisen in many quarters.

(JNS.org)

Joseph Puder is the founder and director of the Interfaith Taskforce for America and Israel (ITAI).