Cracks in the Democratic Foundation: New York Voter Registration Declines

By: Nick Carraway

Democratic voter registration in New York has taken a notable hit, with numbers dropping both in New York City and statewide between 2020 and 2024. According to Board of Elections data, Democratic registration in the city fell by 7%, or 258,612 voters, and statewide by 4%, marking a loss of 271,322 voters for the party.

The data, first reported by the New York Post, highlights a shift in voter affiliations that experts suggest signals growing dissatisfaction with liberal policies.

In stark contrast, the Republican Party saw a modest 2% increase statewide, gaining 67,483 new voters to surpass 3 million registered Republicans. Within New York City, Republican registration also rose slightly by 4,912 voters, bringing the total to 573,644. However, the most striking development is the surge in voters identifying as independents, also referred to as “blanks.”

Independent voters experienced a dramatic 12% increase statewide, adding 353,792 individuals to their ranks, surpassing Republicans with a total of over 3.3 million voters. In New York City, independents rose by 7%, or 80,134 voters, reaching a total of 1,155,323 — nearly double the GOP’s citywide total.

CUNY Graduate Center political science professor John Mollenkopf, speaking to the New York Post, noted the growing alliance potential between Republicans and independents. “The shifting registration patterns clearly show some degree of disaffection for the Democratic Party and an openness to voting for the Republican candidate,” Mollenkopf said.

However, he cautioned Republicans against overconfidence, emphasizing that independent voters remain unattached. “This is a challenge to the Democrats and an opportunity for the Republicans, but they haven’t closed the deal,” he added.

The changing voter landscape has been reflected in recent elections. In 2024, President-elect Donald Trump secured 44% of the vote in heavily Democratic New York, the best performance for a Republican presidential candidate in the state in 36 years. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, won 56% of the vote, underscoring a closer race than in previous years.

The 2022 gubernatorial race also highlighted Republican gains. Democrat Kathy Hochul narrowly defeated Republican challenger Lee Zeldin by just six percentage points. Zeldin, now Trump’s nominee for Environmental Protection Agency secretary, gained significant traction in key areas like Staten Island, where Democratic registration dropped by nearly 9,000 voters. During the same period, GOP registration increased by more than 2,000, while independent voters surged by over 9,000, a 12% rise.

Republican leaders are optimistic about the shifting numbers. State Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox, speaking to the New York Post, said Democrats are “bleeding, losing,” citing dissatisfaction with policies such as cashless bail laws and high taxes. “We are gaining, and independents are gaining,” Cox declared.

State Assemblyman Michael Tannousis, Staten Island Republican Party chairman, echoed this sentiment, attributing the shift to frustration with one-party rule.

Democratic leaders, meanwhile, acknowledge the challenges posed by the declining registration numbers. State Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs admitted that the trend reflects voter concerns. “It definitely corresponds to what we have been hearing anecdotally. People have not been completely happy with the direction and messaging of the party,” Jacobs said.

However, Jacobs argued that voters are not flocking to the Republican Party either, pointing to Democrats’ success in reclaiming four House seats lost to Republicans in 2022.