What Israel Proved With Its Most Recent Attack on Iran | Opinion

By Yaakov Katz

Israel’s early morning assault on Iran Saturday was a historic moment, not only because it marked the first overt Israeli aerial strike against the Islamic Republic, but also because it signaled what Israel’s next potential target might be: Iran’s nuclear program.

The operation had three clear objectives. The first was to send a clear message after Iran’s unprecedented attacks on Israel earlier this year. Since April, Iran has directly launched more than 500 missiles and drones at Israel. This demanded a forceful response to make Iran understand that there is a price to pay for attacking Israel and that it should think twice before considering such attacks again. Israel’s political and military leaders understood that a retaliation was essential to demonstrate that Israel is not afraid to act and will not be restrained by the United States, as Iran might have presumed.

There is a strong sense in Israel that Saturday’s attack succeeded in delivering this message, even if Iran has responded with threats of retaliation. The operation was a carefully crafted warning, indicating that Israel could indeed penetrate Iranian airspace and hit critical targets.

The second objective was to show Israel’s military reach, proving to Iran and the world that the Israeli Air Force can conduct sustained combat operations some 1,200 miles away. This operation involved more than 100 aircraft, including F-35s, F-15s, F-16s, and drones, organized in a sequence of precision strikes carried out in waves.

In the first wave, Israeli jets neutralized radar and air defense systems in Syria and Iraq, clearing a safe corridor for the next phase. Once inside Iran, the air force moved to dismantle additional radar and SAM sites, paving the way for the final strike, which zeroed in on Iran’s ballistic missile production facilities. This phased approach demonstrated Israel’s capability to breach Iranian airspace to erode Iran’s defensive capabilities and to allow Israeli pilots to reach their targets unchallenged.

Also key was the careful selection of targets. By targeting ballistic missile production facilities, Israel hit Iran’s ability to replace missiles used in prior attacks. Without the ability to easily replenish its arsenal, Iran faces greater challenges should it seek to escalate. Just as important was taking out radar and SAM systems. This provides Israel with a temporary “open sky” over Iran, a strategic advantage if, in the coming months, it decides to strike at high-value targets such as oil refineries or nuclear installations.

The most significant system taken down was Iran’s S-300 Russian-made surface-to-air missile system that is reputed to be one of the world’s most advanced. Iran purchased four S-300 batteries in a $800 million deal signed in 2007. While Russia initially delayed the delivery due to Israeli and American pressure, the systems were shipped to Iran by 2016.

Following Iran’s first direct attack on Israel in April, the IAF launched a symbolic operation, targeting an S-300 radar unit near Isfahan, south of Tehran. At least three additional S-300 systems were reportedly destroyed this time.

While nuclear sites were not targeted in this operation, Iran’s leaders now know that Israel’s air force can breach their airspace and conduct large-scale attacks without fear of resistance. This achievement should not be underestimated: if these advanced defenses can’t stop Israel, what can?

Israel’s strike dealt a dual blow, undermining both Iran’s defenses and the reputation of Russian-made military equipment. Ukraine has had success in neutralizing Russia’s newer S-400 systems and now—with the Israeli attack—the Russian hardware has suffered a greater reputational setback. There are genuine questions now about the reliability of these “advanced” systems.

For Iran, the pressure to respond is real. There’s a desire in Tehran to save face, possibly through a retaliatory missile strike against Israel. But Iran’s leadership also knows that such a move will invite an even more devastating Israeli response. Israel’s next strikes may focus on Iran’s prized nuclear facilities—targets Israel deliberately avoided in this round.

The complexity of reaching Iran’s fortified nuclear sites, buried deep in hardened bunkers, is real and Israeli military planners understand that a direct assault on all nuclear facilities might push Iran to openly pursue a nuclear bomb. The regime will rally the Iranian people—many of whom oppose the ayatollahs—and frame Israel’s actions as a reason to accelerate the race to the bomb. They also know that a full-scale assault could have unintended consequences, both for Iran’s nuclear trajectory and for regional stability.

This is why Israel has chosen a measured approach, methodically building its capabilities and preparing, diplomatically and militarily, for a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear program. Israel’s military has proven it can reach Iranian territory and neutralize air defenses, essential steps in a campaign against nuclear sites. Should Iran continue its aggression, Israel may take the next step: targeting the critical infrastructure and components of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Whether that day comes depends largely on Iran’s next move.

Yaakov Katz is a senior fellow at JPPI, a global think tank for the Jewish people, and author of Shadow Strike: Inside Israel’s Secret Mission to Eliminate Syrian Nuclear Power and Weapon Wizards: How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower.