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(JNS) Iran is planning a “strong and complex” attack on Israel that will involve more powerful warheads and other weapons not used in its previous two assaults on the Jewish state this year, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.
Tehran could launch the offensive during the transition between Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election and the inauguration held in Washington on Jan. 20, according to the report, which cited Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plans.
According to the sources, the regime will include its conventional army in the attack and not just the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, because four soldiers and a civilian were killed by Israel’s Oct. 26 retaliatory strikes on Iran. The IRGC, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, normally handles security matters related to Israel.
In retaliation for Iran’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel, on Oct. 26, dozens of Israeli aircraft, including refuelers and spy planes, struck targets across Iran in several waves. The targets reportedly included missile and drone manufacturing facilities and launch sites, as well as air-defense batteries, but not Iran’s nuclear program or energy infrastructure.
An Egyptian official told the Journal that the Islamic Republic has warned privately of a “strong and complex” response.
Tehran has also publicly threatened a large attack in recent days, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowing a “crushing response” and IRGC chief Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami warning of “bitter consequences.”
An Iranian official said that part of the operation could be launched from Iraqi territory. Saudi website Elaph reported that satellites are monitoring the movement of ballistic missiles and related equipment from Iran to Iraq which could be used in an attack on Israel.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaee said at a press conference on Monday that “we would employ all of physical and intellectual capabilities to respond to the Zionist regime,” speaking in response to a question about a potential Iranian attack on Israel from Iraqi soil, according to the semi-official Tasnim News Agency, a Tehran-based media outlet associated with the IRGC.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella organization composed of several Iranian-backed Shi’ite militias operating under IRGC command, has been launching daily drone attacks on Israel since Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of the northwestern Negev.
Israel has warned the Iraqi government that unless it reins in the Iranian-backed militias, the country could face retaliation.
“Our military lost people, so they need to respond,” the Iranian official said, adding that the planned attack would likely target Israeli military facilities “but much more aggressively than last time.”
On Oct. 1, Iran fired 180 ballistic missiles at Israel in its second-ever direct attack on the Jewish state. The first attack, on April 13, involved some 300 missiles and drones. In a coordinated defensive effort with Israel, the United States and regional and international partners, the great majority of the projectiles in both attacks were intercepted, causing minimal casualties and damage.
Israel responded to the April attack by striking an air defense site at an airbase near Isfahan in central Iran, which was followed by the much larger retaliatory attack in October that severely damaged Iran’s aerial defense system and missile production industry.
However, in a greater test for Israel’s multi-layer defenses and allies, Iran is planning to expand the scope of its third attack, and to use more powerful warheads, the source said.
Tehran said that in the Oct. 1 attack it used four different types of medium-range ballistic missiles—the Emad and Ghadr, as well as Kheibar Shekan and Fattah, two of the regime’s newest and most advanced missiles.
According to the Iranian official, the attack will not come before Tuesday’s election because Tehran does not want to influence the results. The United States has warned Iran that any attack before voting day will be considered election interference.
Iran is reportedly concerned about a second term in office for Donald Trump. Arab and Western officials told Reuters on Sunday that the Islamic Republic fears that Trump could empower Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Iran’s nuclear sites and conduct targeted assassinations as well as ratchet up punishing sanctions on Iran’s oil industry.
Washington has warned Iran not to attack Israel again. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said last week that there would be “severe consequences” if Iran attacks Israel or the United States.
“We believe this should be the end of the direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran,” she said.
The Americans are further bolstering their military posture in the Middle East with the arrival of B-52 bombers and Navy warships. A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system is already operational in Israel to bolster the country’s defenses.
The United States has warned Tehran that it will not be able to restrain Jerusalem in the event of another attack, Axios reported on Saturday, citing an American and a former Israeli official.
“We told the Iranians: We won’t be able to hold Israel back, and we won’t be able to make sure that the next attack will be [as] calibrated and targeted as the previous one,” the U.S. official was quoted as saying.
