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The Real Back Story of the IDF Targeted Hit on Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah

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Hashem Safieddine, possible successor as Hezbollah leader after killing of Nasrallah, Sept 2024 (YouTube screenshot)

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The Real Back Story of the IDF Targeted Hit on Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah

Edited by: Fern Sidman

In the aftermath of the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, the Iranian-backed terror group finds itself grappling with a profound security breach that exposed its vulnerabilities to Israeli intelligence. Nasrallah’s death, which occurred in his closely guarded command headquarters last Friday, sent shockwaves through Hezbollah’s ranks. It came on the heels of a series of devastating Israeli strikes that crippled Hezbollah’s operational capabilities, destroyed its weapons sites, and compromised its communications infrastructure. The veteran leader’s whereabouts had been one of the most closely protected secrets for years, yet Israel’s intelligence apparatus seemingly infiltrated deep into the group’s hierarchy.

Nasrallah’s assassination was the culmination of a series of precise Israeli operations, including the detonation of booby-trapped pagers and radios, widely attributed to Israel, which targeted Hezbollah’s top leadership. The detonation, which took place barely a week before Nasrallah’s death, decimated much of Hezbollah’s leadership council, significantly weakening the group. According to a report in The Times of Israel, Israeli intelligence efforts appear to have been focused on Hezbollah for more than two decades, and these most recent actions demonstrate the culmination of years of strategic planning and intelligence gathering. One source familiar with Israeli intelligence described it as “brilliant,” though exact details were not revealed, further emphasizing the sophistication of these operations.

The assassination of Nasrallah marks a turning point in Israel’s efforts to dismantle Hezbollah’s leadership. Sources in Lebanon, Israel, Iran, and Syria—who requested anonymity—shared with Reuters the extent of the damage inflicted by Israel on Hezbollah’s supply lines and command structure. Nasrallah’s death, following the pager blasts, indicates that Israeli intelligence had penetrated the group deeply enough to uncover not only its weapons sites but also its top-secret leadership locations. This intelligence breach raises serious questions about Hezbollah’s internal security, which will now face the monumental task of identifying and eliminating the Israeli informants who compromised their ranks.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, along with his inner circle of ministers, authorized the strike on Nasrallah’s headquarters just days before the operation. Netanyahu, who was in New York at the time to address the UN General Assembly, had overseen a rapid succession of strikes aimed at Hezbollah’s command. According to The Times of Israel, Nasrallah had remained particularly vigilant in recent years, avoiding public appearances and restricting his movements following the 2006 Second Lebanon War. His inner circle was small, and his movements were tightly controlled to avoid Israeli detection. However, despite his caution, his death indicates that Israeli informants had successfully infiltrated his security arrangements.

The operation that led to Nasrallah’s killing suggests a level of infiltration that Hezbollah may not have anticipated. Since the September 17 pager blasts, Nasrallah had taken additional precautions, fearing that Israel would target him next. Reports indicate that his absence from a senior commander’s funeral and his reliance on pre-recorded speeches were signs of his growing paranoia. Yet, these precautions were not enough to protect him from Israel’s reach. A security source familiar with Hezbollah’s internal workings noted that Nasrallah had been particularly cautious in the days leading up to his death, but Israel’s intelligence proved too deep-rooted to counter.

The strike, carried out by the Israeli Air Force (IAF), involved dozens of bunker-busting bombs aimed at Hezbollah’s underground headquarters beneath a residential building in southern Beirut. The operation marks a significant victory for Israel in its ongoing efforts to neutralize threats from Iranian-backed groups and has garnered support from international allies.

President Joe Biden publicly praised Nasrallah’s killing as “a measure of justice” for the many victims of Hezbollah’s attacks over the years. He emphasized that Washington fully backs Israel’s right to defend itself against threats posed by Iranian-sponsored groups such as Hezbollah. According to The Times of Israel, Israeli officials have framed the strike as part of a broader campaign to eliminate Hezbollah’s military leadership, a group that had been coordinating operations aimed at Israel for years.’

The hit on Nasrallah, which involved precision airstrikes from IAF fighter jets, came in the midst of a critical meeting between Hezbollah’s top commanders. “This is a massive blow and intelligence failure for Hezbollah,” remarked Magnus Ranstorp, a Hezbollah expert at the Swedish Defence University. The IDF’s ability to pinpoint Nasrallah’s exact location during this secretive meeting represents a significant intelligence achievement. The Times of Israel said that according to reports, Israel had been monitoring Hezbollah’s underground headquarters for some time, and once it became clear that Nasrallah and other high-ranking officials were present, the decision to launch the strike was made swiftly.

The scale of Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah is underscored by the fact that Nasrallah’s death brings the number of top Hezbollah commanders killed by Israeli forces this year to eight out of nine. Among those killed were leaders of critical military units, including Hezbollah’s rocket division and the elite Radwan force, which Israeli intelligence has long suspected of planning a large-scale invasion of northern Israel. In the days leading up to the strike on Nasrallah, Hezbollah was already reeling from a series of deadly explosions involving booby-trapped pagers and radios. These devices, which Hezbollah fighters relied on for communication, detonated on September 17 and 18, killing over 35 Hezbollah operatives and injuring around 1,500 more.

The precision of the Israeli operation was highlighted in a briefing by IDF spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani, who confirmed that Israeli forces had “real-time” intelligence about Nasrallah’s gathering with other senior commanders. While the IDF has not disclosed how they obtained this intelligence, the accuracy of their information allowed Israeli forces to strike with devastating precision. The Times of Israel reported that Brigadier General Amichai Levin, the commander of the IAF’s Hatzerim Airbase, described the operation as highly complex and long in the making. Levin noted that dozens of munitions hit the target within seconds, ensuring the strike’s success.

For Hezbollah, the loss of Nasrallah is not only a blow to its leadership but also a symbol of the group’s compromised security. As Ranstorp noted, the fact that Israel knew where and when Nasrallah was meeting with his commanders is a clear indication of a serious intelligence failure within Hezbollah’s ranks. The group’s inability to prevent this infiltration, coupled with the destruction of key communication devices in earlier attacks, suggests that Hezbollah’s once-vaunted operational secrecy has been severely undermined.

Hezbollah has long demonstrated resilience in replacing its leaders, and Nasrallah’s cousin, Hashem Safieddine, has been widely regarded as his likely successor. Safieddine, a cleric distinguished by the black turban that signifies his descent from the Prophet Mohammed, has long been groomed to take the reins of the organization, ensuring that Hezbollah remains a formidable force despite recent losses.

A European diplomat familiar with Hezbollah’s operations remarked on the group’s adaptability, saying, “You kill one, they get a new one.” This has been the terror group’s approach for decades, allowing it to survive multiple leadership changes and retain its military strength. According to The Times of Israel, Hezbollah is far from defeated, with U.S. and Israeli estimates suggesting that the group had around 40,000 fighters at the start of the current escalation. Hezbollah also boasts a vast network of tunnels near Israel’s northern border and a significant stockpile of weapons, much of which has been supplied by Iran.

Hezbollah, founded in 1982 with support from Tehran, is one of the most formidable elements within Iran’s Axis of Resistance, a coalition of anti-Israel and anti-U.S. groups in the region. Over the years, the group has evolved into a significant player in its own right, far beyond its initial role as an Iranian proxy. Despite its entrenched position, the past 10 days have taken a toll on Hezbollah, both materially and psychologically. Thanks to years of backing from Iran, Hezbollah’s pre-conflict arsenal included an estimated 150,000 rockets, missiles, and drones, according to U.S. assessments. Israeli estimates suggest that this is nearly ten times the size of Hezbollah’s armory during the 2006 Lebanon War.

In recent years, Hezbollah’s arsenal has only grown, with Iran continuing to funnel weapons and financial aid into Lebanon. According to The Times of Israel, there has been a significant flow of arms into Hezbollah’s strongholds, primarily in the Beqaa Valley, far from Israel’s border. However, the scale of damage inflicted by Israel’s recent strikes remains somewhat unclear. A Western diplomat in the Middle East estimated that Hezbollah had lost between 20-25% of its missile capabilities during the ongoing conflict, particularly in light of hundreds of Israeli strikes this past week. This estimate, though not fully substantiated, aligns with Israel’s strategy of systematically targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.

One Israeli security official stated that a “very respectable portion” of Hezbollah’s missile stockpiles had been destroyed but declined to provide further specifics. Over the past several days, Israeli forces have struck more than 1,000 Hezbollah targets, aiming to cripple the group’s ability to launch rockets into Israel. These strikes, part of a larger effort to diminish Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities, are also a complement to Israel’s defensive Iron Dome air system, which has intercepted many of the missiles fired from Lebanon. Despite Hezbollah’s large arsenal, Israeli officials believe that the group’s ability to launch rockets has been significantly reduced. The fact that Hezbollah has only managed to fire a few hundred missiles per day during the past week—far fewer than expected—indicates that its military infrastructure may have been seriously compromised.

While the full extent of the damage to Hezbollah’s arsenal is still being assessed, Israeli strikes have undoubtedly weakened the group’s immediate capacity to wage war. The ongoing conflict has underscored the long-standing military preparations made by Israel, which has spent the past two decades anticipating and preparing for potential large-scale rocket attacks from Hezbollah. The Times of Israel reports that Israel’s offensive strategy, combined with its defensive systems, has mitigated the threat posed by Hezbollah’s vast stockpiles of rockets and missiles. Nonetheless, the terrorist group’s ability to regroup and replenish its weapons will likely depend on continued support from Iran and its ability to rebuild its leadership and military structures in the coming months.

In the days leading up to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iran had been preparing to send additional military aid to Hezbollah, according to three Iranian sources who spoke to Reuters. The aid package reportedly included short-to-medium-range ballistic missiles, such as the Iranian Zelzals, and an upgraded precision version known as the Fateh 110. This support was intended to prepare Hezbollah for a prolonged conflict with Israel, a scenario that now seems more plausible in the wake of Nasrallah’s death. However, following the assassination, these sources could not be reached, leaving the status of the planned missile shipments unclear.

Despite its willingness to bolster Hezbollah militarily, Iran appears hesitant to become directly involved in a full-scale confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel. As noted by The Times of Israel, the rapid escalation in hostilities over the past week can be traced back to skirmishes linked to the Gaza war, but Tehran seems intent on keeping its involvement in the conflict limited to arms supplies rather than deploying Iranian forces. Nevertheless, Iranian support for Hezbollah has been a cornerstone of the group’s ability to maintain its military capabilities, and this latest push for additional missile shipments reflects Tehran’s continued commitment to Hezbollah’s arsenal.

The situation took a significant turn when Iranian Revolutionary Guards deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan was killed in Israeli strikes on Beirut last Friday, according to Iranian state media reports. His death highlights Iran’s involvement in the conflict, even if indirect, as the Revolutionary Guards have long been a conduit for Iranian military aid to Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Hezbollah faces the daunting task of replenishing its missile stockpiles and warheads destroyed by Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon. A senior Syrian military intelligence source suggested that Hezbollah would likely need drones, missile parts, and certain warheads to restore its offensive capabilities.

Iran has historically supplied Hezbollah through air, sea, and land routes, but these channels are becoming increasingly compromised. According to The Times of Israel, an Iranian aircraft was recently warned by Israel not to enter Lebanese airspace, with Israel threatening to use force if the plane attempted to land. Lebanese authorities, unsure of the aircraft’s cargo, instructed it to avoid entering the country’s airspace. This development underscores the growing pressure on Hezbollah’s supply lines, as Israeli forces intensify their efforts to disrupDonatebalance of naturet the flow of Iranian weapons into Lebanon.

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