Nobel Peace Prize Speculation Centers Around UNRWA, the ICJ & Guterres Amid Global Conflicts

Edited by: Fern Sidman

As the world anxiously awaits the announcement of the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize, several leading contenders have emerged, according to experts. Among the top contenders are the United Nations Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA), the International Court of Justice (ICJ), and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. This year’s award is set against the backdrop of significant global conflicts, particularly in Gaza and Ukraine, making humanitarian organizations a key focus. According to a report on the Arab News web site, the Norwegian Nobel Committee may surprise everyone, as it has in the past, or may even choose not to award the prize at all.

One of the most talked-about possibilities is UNRWA, which has purportedly been providing humanitarian assistance to millions of Palestinians across the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon since its establishment in 1949.

Despite its purported humanitarian efforts, a potential Nobel Peace Prize win for UNRWA would be controversial. The report on the Arab News web site pointed out that allegations have surfaced regarding some of the agency’s staff members participating in the Hamas led October 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel which resulted in the brutal massacre of 1200 people, the sadistic rape of countless women and girls, the decapitation of babies as well as scores of people being burned alive. These claims led several nations to temporarily halt their funding to the agency. However, most donors resumed financial support after an internal UN investigation concluded that nine staff members took active roles in the ghastly attack and were subsequently dismissed from their roles. Other reports indicate that the number of UNRWA employees who participated in the Hamas murder spree on October 7^th was approximately 12.

Israel has frequently voiced opposition to UNRWA, accusing it of being complicit in terrorist activities and calling for the agency’s disbandment. Despite these tensions, Arab News reported that UNRWA allegedly remains a crucial actor in alleviating the suffering of Palestinians in conflict zones, making it a potential candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize.

While UNRWA has been a major focus, the International Court of Justice and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres are also considered strong contenders. As the Arab News report noted, the Nobel Committee often recognizes institutions or individuals who contribute to international law and peace efforts. Guterres, for example, has played a key role in diplomacy and peacekeeping efforts amidst several global conflicts, including the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, although he has been overtly biased against Israel and highly supportive of such Iranian-backed terror proxies as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.

Another name frequently mentioned in the Nobel Prize speculation is Russian dissident Alexei Navalny. Navalny, however, passed away in February 2024 while in a penal colony in the Arctic, making him ineligible for the prize, as it cannot be awarded posthumously. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is another name often floated, though his chances are slim given that the Nobel Prize tends to avoid awarding leaders of nations actively engaged in war, according to Arab News.

The increasing likelihood of an ostensibly humanitarian organization such as UNRWA receiving the Nobel Peace Prize reflects the broader challenges faced by the world in 2024. With the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, the third year of war in Ukraine, and violence in Sudan displacing millions, many experts believe the Nobel Committee will want to honor those who are easing civilian suffering rather than political or military leaders. As the Arab News report explained, the award could serve as a message of peace and a reminder of the importance of humanitarian work in times of conflict.

Antonio Guterres, the current UN Secretary-General, stands out as a strong candidate for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. Historian Asle Sveen, who specializes in the history of the Nobel Peace Prize, suggested to Reuters that Guterres is a “top symbol of the UN” and could represent a broader recognition of the United Nations’ role in promoting “global stability.” According to Arab News, the committee might also recognize the International Court of Justice (ICJ) alongside Guterres.  Both Guterres and the ICJ have shown overt bias and animosity towards Israel.

The ICJ has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has falsely accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. However, Israel has repeatedly dismissed the court’s claims as baseless. Despite these controversies, a combined prize for both Guterres and the ICJ could be a possibility.

While Guterres and the ICJ are considered top contenders, there is a possibility that the Nobel Committee may decide not to award the prize at all. According to Arab News, the committee has withheld the prize on 19 occasions, most recently in 1972. With ongoing wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan, the committee might choose to make a statement by withholding the prize in recognition of the planet’s increasing turmoil.

Dan Smith, head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, suggested that the committee could use the prize’s absence to emphasize the extent of global conflict. “Maybe this is the year in which the Nobel Peace Prize committee should simply withhold the prize and focus attention on the fact that this is a warring planet,” Smith told Reuters, as reported by Arab News.

The Nobel Peace Prize nominations process is shrouded in secrecy, with names only revealed 50 years after submission. However, those who submit nominations can choose to disclose their choices. This year, 286 candidates have been nominated, according to Arab News, with some well-known figures among them. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), Pope Francis, and British naturalist David Attenborough are among the disclosed nominees.

The diversity of nominees reflects the broad range of issues the Nobel Committee could choose to address, from humanitarian work to environmental conservation. Last year’s award went to Narges Mohammadi, an Iranian women’s rights advocate, in what Arab News described as a clear rebuke to Tehran’s theocratic leadership and a boost for anti-government protesters. This selection demonstrates the committee’s willingness to use the prize as a political statement, which could influence this year’s decision.