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Direct Polls, which correctly predicted the results of Israel’s most recent election in November 2022, surveyed a representative sample of 536 Israeli adults on Sept. 5. (The margin of error is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points at a confidence level of 95%, Direct Polls said.)
If a general election were to be held today, the Likud Party would secure 29 seats out of the Israeli parliament’s 120, down by one since last week.
Benny Gantz’s National Unity received the next most projected seats (17), followed by Yisrael Beiteinu (13), Yesh Atid and the Democrats (11 each), Shas (10), United Torah Judaism (eight), Otzma Yehudit and Ra’am (six each), Religious Zionism (five) and Hadash-Ta’al (four).
Mansour Abbas’s Islamist Ra’am Party gained one Knesset mandate at the expense of the Arab Hadash-Ta’al Party, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism Party also rose by one seat.
No political camp would win a majority. Hence, Netanyahu or Gantz would only be able to form a coalition if members of the opposite bloc join or, alternatively, through the establishment of a unity government.
Respondents chose Netanyahu over Gantz as better suited for the job of prime minister by 43% to 27%. In a matchup with Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid Party, Netanyahu was deemed more suitable by 45% to 29%.
The Likud Party has held 32 seats in the Knesset since the 2022 general election, in addition to the 32 seats held by his right-wing and religious allies. The next Israeli national vote is scheduled for 2026 unless the Netanyahu-led government collapses and early elections are called.
Last week’s poll recorded the largest projected number of Likud seats since Jerusalem launched a defensive war against the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip following the Oct. 7 cross-border attacks.
