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By Rich Berdan
Iran was not only embarrassed with the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, being eliminated in Tehran but likely quite disturbed that the assassins have the capability to reach deep into the most secure Iranian facilities and strike their adversary with fear and death. While some experts are clamoring that the death of Haniyeh has been a setback for negotiations and the release of the remaining Israeli hostages, it can be argued that Haniyeh was actually the roadblock to negotiations succeeding. The Hamas leader has never sought a peaceful coexistence with Israel, and he milked every ounce of antisemitism and hatred toward Israel from the UN, the Hague, campuses, and feckless politicians. Iranian’s puppet strings were clipped.
Iran has now vowed to avenge the assassination of the Hamas leader. On several occasions, the Iranian leadership has promised and are effectively now committed to a meaningful attack on the Jewish state and perhaps other targets in the West. It is still unclear when Iran will launch their threatening assault against Israel, or what form those strikes would take.
While Iran’s recent attack on April 13 marked a significant escalation when over 300 drones and a combination of cruise and ballistic missiles were launched at Israel, almost all of the incoming drones and missiles were intercepted with little to no damage. A similar response to the assassination in the heartland of Iran that results in no significant damage in Israel may be seen as a failure not only from the Iranian clerics calling for revenge but also a sign of weakness to Iran’s proxy terrorists often having to sacrifice their lives for big brother.
This is the quandary Iran faces as they find themselves in the corner of a shrinking sandbox.
Does Iran retreat from their blustering rhetoric with another choregraphed attack to settle the score or do they attack with a simultaneous wave from Iran, Hezbollah, and its other proxies in the region? The former has the Iranian military limping in weakness and the latter green lights Israel to finally make good on their commitment to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
How confident is Iran in defending their prized nuclear aspirations? Following Iran’s missile blitz, Israel launched a limited revenge strike that targeted Iranian air defence radar systems in the province of Isfahan where the Natanz nuclear facility and military industrial complex, including drone and ballistic missile factories are located. The IDF sent a message that Iran is vulnerable. Israel’s military superiority, specifically its air force will play a pivotal role in Iran’s strategy. Is Iran willing to gamble and lose what they have spent in years and billions of dollars to build a nuclear weapons program? We can surmise what Iran’s Arab neighbours are discreetly rooting for.
Can Iran defend against 310 of the world’s best combat and ground attack aircraft whose technological advantage in surveillance, precision strikes, and rapid response far outweighs an Iran’s struggling air force composed of outdated U.S aircraft and a number of Russian acquisitions? Moreover, does Iran’s air defense systems comprising of Russian-made S-300s provide a serious deterrent to counter aerial threats. The short answer is no. While the Russian systems must be dealt with during an attack, the systems are not near the advanced Israeli air defense systems, whether the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, the Arrow System, and the American Patriot systems providing multiple layers of defense. Iran must also consider the arrival and committed support from an American naval strike force that includes an aircraft carrier and a supporting cast of destroyers and cruisers.
Most have been predicting an Iranian response in short order; however, Iran may need to buy more time if they are planning to make a substantial attack on the Jewish state. First, it is pay back time for sending drones to Russia in its war in Ukraine. It is now being reported that Russia is sending more advanced radars and air-defence equipment. This will take some time to set up a defensive ring around strategic infrastructure, refineries, and military and naval installations. A meaningful Iranian assault may take weeks or months to plan out with its proxies, and this may see Israel’s allies reduce their presence and continue to keep the Israeli population on edge.
There may be a more sinister Iranian plot that is not being considered. This might involve a major terrorist attack that involves a weapon causing unfathomable destruction and suffering. This attack or assassination could take place anywhere in the world. With this in mind, Israel would consider launching a pre-emptive strike to deter Iran if it uncovered evidence that Tehran was preparing to strike Israeli or American interests.
Historically, it should be evident to Israel’s enemies by now that the Jewish state and people have and will always continue to have the upper hand. This narrative goes far beyond the military superiority of the IDF, and to its cunning ingenuity, discipline, and the will to survive against all odds. Goodness will prevail over evil. The enemy, whether the Amalekites, Philistines, the 6-Day War, Entebbe, and the recent rescue of hostages being held in Gaza, never catches up to Israel’s next move. Thankfully, numerous Arab states have come to the right conclusion through the Abraham Accords that it is better to be a friend of Israel than an enemy.
Rich Berdan,
