By: Jeff Seldin
Turkey’s incursion into northeastern Syria appears to be giving Islamic State new life, but U.S. counter terrorism officials caution the terror group’s next moves are far from certain.
The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, warn Islamic State is well-versed in using regional conflicts to its advantage, having done so in Iraq in 2005-2006, and again in the aftermath of the Arab Spring.
And they note that IS has used the seven months since the fall in March of its last territorial stronghold in Baghuz, Syria, to lay a foundation of “dispersed networks” — comprising an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 fighters — for a prolonged and vicious insurgency.
“It is not clear at this time how ISIS may adjust their strategy in Syria in light of the Turkish incursion,” a U.S. counter terrorism official told VOA, using an acronym for the terror group.
Until Turkey launched its operation in Syria’s northeast earlier this month, most of IS’s operations had targeted Kurdish security forces. There was also speculation that IS cells might try to free some of the approximately 12,000 fighters being held by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as well as the tens of thousands of IS wives and other family members in displaced persons camps across the region — something IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi encouraged in a September speech.
Just how many captured IS fighters may have escaped or been freed remains uncertain. U.S. officials say both Turkey and the SDF have assured them the prisoners remain incarcerated, though they admit the absence of U.S. forces on the ground means the claims cannot be verified.
Both Turkey and the SDF have likewise accused each other of releasing IS prisoners to fight for them during the current hostilities — allegations each side rejects.
U.S. officials fear it is the type of atmosphere in which IS tends to thrive.
“Mistrust of the government, the inability of security guarantors to assure the safety of local populations, and divisions along ethnic and religious lines are all factors that ISIS has previously exploited,” the U.S. counterterrorism official said.
And there have been indications, of late, that the terror group is growing bolder.
On Tuesday, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights quoted sources as saying that a former IS emir and 150 followers had moved back into the town of Tel Abyad, once a critical IS supply hub on the border between Turkey and Syria, and a focus of Turkey’s recent operations.
The Manbij Military Council, a militia with ties to the SDF, also said Tuesday it had detected increased activity by IS cells in Syria, though it put some of the blame on Turkish-backed forces, accusing them of trying to help IS members escape.
So too, the Kurdish Red Crescent warned IS has used the conflict to “increase their capabilities again in the whole region.”
“The Kurdish security forces has no capacity at all anymore to protect the civilians from the terror of ISIS,” it said in a statement Tuesday.
And with fewer U.S. forces on the ground in Syria, current and former U.S. defense officials say the United States will have a harder time gathering intelligence on the terror group and monitoring IS activity.
So too, there are fears IS may use the chaos in northeast Syria to further fund its growing insurgency, by targeting oil fields now under the control of Kurdish forces — a fear that has resonated with President Trump.
“We secured the oil,” Trump said during a cabinet meeting Monday, saying the U.S. had a small force in the area.
Defense Secretary Mark Esper confirmed Tuesday that some troops “remain in the towns that are located near the oil fields,” though he said he has yet to present the president with a long-term plan.
“A purpose of those forces, working with the SDF, is to deny access to those oil fields by ISIS and others who may benefit from revenues that could be earned,” Esper told reporters Monday during a news conference in Afghanistan.
Yet, analysts and researchers caution while IS may have designs on the oil fields, many of which it once controlled, a straightforward takeover is unlikely.
“Controlling oil fields would be a boost, but would also expose it to direct attack,” said Rand Senior Economist Howard Shatz, who co-authored a report on the terror group’s finances. (VOA)
